The good and bad of a Dundalk progress tonight

Tonight Dundalk will be aiming to do what a League of Ireland side has failed to do since 2011 and get through a round in the champions league. Back then it was Shamrock Rovers who overcame Estonians Flora Tallinn to get through to the 3rd qualifying round where they ended up losing to FC Kobenhavn before dropping into the Europa League play-offs in which the overcame to reach the group stage.
Tonight Dundalk face a much tougher opponent in serial Belorussian title winners BATE Borisov with the prize of up to €500k on offer for progress. Huge money for Dundalk, an installment for BATE.
However Dundalk's opponents are an interesting case study of what progress could result in. Rewind back to summer 2003 when Bohemians faced BATE Borisov in the 1st qualifying round. Bohs beat BATE 3-1 on aggregate to progress and few would've predicted that in the 12 years since, BATE would've reached the group stage three times. The group stage is life changing or can be for a club outside the "major" leagues of Europe. The money on offer could and has in BATE's case upgraded facilities, improve the youth academy and attract higher caliber players.
By having Dundalk progress tonight means the country co-efficient will improve which does affect other sides. If the co-efficient is high enough Irish sides might be starting in the 2nd qualifying round in the Europa League and not the 1st which offers more money to participants. Also by seeing Dundalk progress other sides in the league will strive to improve to get their own payday from Europe. In Belarus last season Dinamo Minsk reached the group stage of the Europa League and that in itself not only bought money to them it helped raise the co-efficient even higher.
Those are the positives that progress through rounds in the champions league can do for a club. The negatives are also seen with BATE Borisov. Since they've broken into the champions league group stage BATE have enjoyed a complete monopoly of the domestic league. The Belorussian league is now a replica of what the Scottish Premiership is with Celtic, a procession. Before BATE and their riches from European progress happened the league was lower key but at least it was competitive. In fact between 1998 and 2005 (just before BATE's current 9 in a row title streak) there were seven different title winners. Since then no one has had a look in. BATE continue to pocket the massive champions league money while the likes of Dinamo Minsk and Shakhtyor Solihorsk (Who both won titles in that competitive period) scrap for Europa league money which itself isn't bad but not as high as the champions league money obviously.

That is the major negative that progress for Dundalk would be. The league of Ireland is one the rare leagues in Europe that is actually competitive. In the decade we have seen Cork City, Shelbourne, Drogheda, Bohemians, Shamrock Rovers, Sligo Rovers, St Pats and Dundalk all win the title at least once. With the riches on offer to Dundalk there is a possibility that they could pull away from the rest and dominate the league like BATE have done in Belarus or Rosenborg did in Norway when they hit the big time.

Sevilla doing what they do best

Fresh from winning back-to-back Europa League titles, one might have feared the worst when it emerged not long afterwards that top scorer Carlos Bacca was packing his bags for AC Milan in what turned out to be a €30 million transfer fee. However the truth is, Sevilla have been here before, many times.
Carlos Bacca's departure will hurt no doubt but Sevilla are quiet capable of replacing departing star players with cheaper potential star players. In fact Bacca is a case study in this. Signed back in 2013 from Belgian side Club Brugge for a relatively cheap €7 million, Bacca was signed to replace the departing top scorer of 2012-13 Álvaro Negredo who was sold to Manchester City for around €25 million.
Replacing Bacca in 2015 is Italian striker Ciro Immobile signed on loan from Borussia Dortmund. Immobile impressed while at Torino two seasons ago and will be hoping to replicate that sort of form for Sevilla who are also back in the champions league this season.
The policy at Sevilla is clear buy low and sell high and you could make a pretty decent team with the players they have sold particularly in the last few years with the likes of Ivan Rakitic, Jesús Navas, Álvaro Negredo, Aleix Vidal, Adriano and Kondogbia.
This summer they have signed Yevhen Konoplyanka, Gael Kakuta, Micheal Krohn-Dehli, Adil Rami and Steven N'Zonzi for a combined €20 million. All decent players that should give Sevilla more depth to their squad for the coming campaign. You don't need to be an expert to see that if Kakuta and Konoplyanka have a few impressive seasons with the club they'll be the next €20-30 million rated players leaving Sevilla and the process starts again.
Sevilla's key players these days have been signed for peanuts in today's market. Vitolo was a €3 million signing in 2013, Trémoulinas was signed for under €4 million last summer and Polish rock Gregorz Krychowiak was signed for what now looks a give away at €5 million last summer.

Even with the champions league money this season, Sevilla are not going mad. The policy remains the same as they look to stabilize the club off the pitch. The risk is always spending the money unwisely and then missing out on the champions league the following season. For a few years Sevilla's transfers were not working out, the likes of Tom De Mul, Romaric and Morgan De Sanctis were signed and didn't produce so Sevilla's league position declined. They are now back on the upward curve on and off the pitch and it remains to be seen just how far they can go in the champions league this coming season.

Europa League 1st Qualifying Round

The conclusion of the 2nd legs on Thursday saw the end of European interests for 51 sides across Europe including my own Cork City. 

The biggest casualty was Crvena Zvezda (commonly known as Red Star Belgrade). They bowed out 4-1 on aggregate to Kazakhs Kairat Almaty. The Serbs gave themselves a mountain to climb with the early red card in the first leg and the concession of two away goal to Almaty made it difficult and played in Kairat's hands. 

Other sides to bit the bullet were Dinamo Tbilisi, Go Ahead Eagles, Sherriff Tiraspol and St Johnstone. 

The St Johnstone result was probably a shock since they were expected to get through against Armenians Alashkert Yerevan. In the end they bowed out on away goals. Aberdeen did at least get through so all was not lost for Scottish representation. 

Mixed bag for Ireland

Ireland had a mixed round. We'll start with Cork City as they limped out to KR Reykjavík. Taking a 1-1 scoreline into the 2nd leg City got the perfect start with an early goal to edge in front. Any more goals for city at this point would mean KR would've had to win the game outright. Instead City invited KR onto them. KR were also down to ten just before half-time but it was them that preceded dominate but lacked a cutting edge up front until the 75th minute when they found the breakthrough. The tie went to extra-time and KR got a 2nd goal which left City needing to score to go through. The goal never came and it was the Icelandic's that progressed. 

St Pat's also crashed out of Europe as Skonto Riga won 2-0 in Inchicore. Pat's were beaten in the first leg but had the away goal which was hoped would be vital. However the Latvian side registered a 2-0 win and left Pat's ruing what might have been. 

Shamrock Rovers did progress but only after a scoreless first leg in Luxembourg against Progrés Niederkorn. A 3-0 win in Tallaght on Tuesday saw Rovers through in comfortable style. 

The biggest news from Ireland though was UCD. The Dubliners who are actually playing first division football this season progressed against leading Luxemburg side F91 Dudelange on away goals. The 2nd leg saw UCD lose 2-1 but that away goal was enough to squeeze through. The award? a tie against Slovan Bratislava. 

The North lost Glentoran as they were beaten easily by MSK Zilina from Slovakia. Glenavon are also gone after a 5-1 aggregate defeat to Shaktyor Solihorsk of Belarus. Linfield however did progress although the almost didn't as they lost the away leg 4-3 to NSÍ Runavík from the Faroe Islands. Linfield will play Spartak Trnava of Slovakia in the next round. 

Trashings

There were a few trashing with the notable one being Brondby putting 11 past Juvenes/Dogana of San Marino over two legs. A 9-0 win at home rendered the 2nd leg a dead-rubber but a 2-0 success for the Danes saw them continue with the goalscoring form to take into the 2nd qualifying round where they will face Beroe of Bulgaria. 

Jagiellonia Bialystok were also big winners with a 9-0 aggregate win over Lithuanians Kruoja. However it took a stoppage time winner in the first leg for them to take a lead into the home leg where they ran riot putting eight past the Lithuanians on Thursday. 

Elfsborg made things look easy with a 5-0 2nd leg win over Lahti from Finland to go through 7-2 on aggregate while AIK posted a 4-0 2nd leg win to go through 6-2 over two legs against VPS from Finalnd as well. 

Slovan Bratislava were 9-0 aggregate winners over Europa from Gibraltar and Vaduz registered a 10-1 aggregate scoreline against La Fiorita of San Marino. 

Change up top for Atlético

So after just one season Mario Mandzukic is leaving Atlético Madrid for Juventus. In many ways this isn't exactly a shock transfer. Mandzukic arrived as a replacement for Diego Costa and overall in his sole season in Spain the Croat didn't do that badly.
20 goals last season is a decent return but when your replacing a striker who got 36 it doesn't seem quiet as good. Nonetheless Mandzukic wasn't a flop signing. He was signed to lead the line from the top and he did quiet well. A competitive striker he did endure some bruising games particularly against Real Madrid but his competitive edge did help him adapt to the team..to a degree.

The style Atlético play is for everyone to fight for each other and that is something Diego Costa was very good at. While Costa had a dream season goalscoring wise he was also leading the line fiercely and suited the style of play very well. Mandzukic had to adapt and didn't fully do so hence the transfer.

So who replaces Mandzukic and where do Atlético go from here? Well they are signing a very promising striker in Luciano Vietto. The Argentine is signed for near on €20 million. Manager Simeone has managed Vietto before at Racing Club in Argentina and Villarreal clearly knew something when the stumped up €5.5 million for him last summer.
Vietto will offer Atlético some ice cool finishing as well as some much needed pace to the attack. Vietto has the potential to be the next world-class striker in the Atlético ranks.

Atlético are still in the hunt for another striker. They were heavily linked with Carlos Tévez but the Argentine seems destined for a return to Boca Juniors back home. Another South American striker does however seem to be on his way and that's Porto's Colombian hitman Jackson Martínez.
Scorer of 21 goals for Porto in the Liga Portugesa last season, Martínez has long been linked with a move away from Porto. The likes of Arsenal and recently AC Milan admiring the strength the Colombian has to offer. Signed for around €8 million from Mexican side Jaguares, Porto will make a massive profit yet again.

So what does the incoming strikers mean for the current contingent at the club. As mentioned above Mandzukic is gone and it's likely Léo Baptistao is following him out. The Brazilian is likely to join Villarreal on loan as part of the Vietto deal but with Villarreal having an option to buy next summer.
Mexican Raúl Jiménez is also likely to be going out on loan with Rayo a possible destination given the history between the two clubs.
Borja Bastón enjoyed a productive season on loan at Zaragoza in the Segunda and his destination is likely to be another loan move this time to a Primera división side. Ángel Correa is another young forward player who may be heading out on loan to get some valuable game time.

All this leaves Atlético with Fernando Torres, Antoine Griezmann, Vietto and possibly Martínez as their striking options for the new season. Not a bad selection in fairness.

The Sevilla team that should've won the league

Sevilla are one of the nine sides to have won La Liga since its inception in 1929. That success came in 1945-46 however they haven't added to that single league victory since. They came close in 1950-51 missing out by two points to Atlético Madrid but it wasn't till the 2006-07 season that they challenged for the title again.

That 2006-07 campaign despite what you might read about it, was a three-way tussle for the title between the big two and the Andalucians. Sevilla were on the back of a first ever UEFA cup victory the previous campaign and would go on to retain it in this season. Under the stewardship of Juande Ramos, Sevilla would become a force that stood up to the big two.
With the experience Andrés Palop in goal they had a commanding presence between the sticks. A certain Dani Alves was bombarding up and down the right wing with Jesús Navas with frightening pace, Dane Christian Poulsen added steel to the midfield with Renato supplying the Kanouté Fabiano partnership that would yield goals for days.

They started the campaign with a trashing of Barcelona in the UEFA super cup showing the threat they posed. As for the Liga campaign a nice three wins from three including a derby victory over Real Betis got Sevilla off and running.
A bad tempered game with Atlético followed which saw them slip to 5th, bouncing back with a victory over Getafe before the first major test against Barcelona at the Nou Camp. Despite briefly drawing level, Sevilla succumbed to a 3-1 defeat that pushed Sevilla into 4th.
However that defeat didn't dampen the confidence too much as they went on a six game unbeaten run that saw them drop only two points (away at Racing Santander). That run of form elevated Sevilla up to 2nd a point behind Barcelona and two ahead of Real Madrid.
They faced Espanyol away and despite taking the lead through Luís Fabiano, they let it slip and suffered a 2-1 loss. That allowed Real Madrid to overtake them in the table but crucially Barcelona only drew at Levante.

A three game winning streak up to the Christmas break followed. In the run was a 2-1 victory over Real Madrid. Going down early to a David Beckham goal, Sevilla regrouped and fought back to claw themselves a massive 2-1 victory. That success was followed by the victories over Recreativo and Deportivo.
So at the Christmas break Sevilla were top. They sat two points clear of Barcelona and held a five point lead over Real Madrid. All seemed rosy at the top for Juande Ramos' side. However the break came at a wrong time. First game back was a 2-1 reverse at Zaragoza which was followed by another 2-1 reverse this time at home by Mallorca. Those two defeats allowed Real Madrid to claw back three points on the christmas lead while Barcelona themselves were also stuttering. Sevilla did arrest the losing run with a 0-0 draw away at Villarreal.

A six game unbeaten run followed but half the games were draws. The sixth game of that run was the biggest game of the season so far, Barcelona at the Sánchez Pizjuan. The rojiblancos went down to a Ronaldinho strike early on but were back level with winter signing Alexander Kerzhakov striking before a Dani Alves free-kick had the Sánchez Pizjuan rocking!. A massive victory, which lifted Sevilla top by a point from Barcelona.
What followed was an absolute disaster. Away at a Gimnástic side that along with Real Sociedad were adrift at the bottom of the table, seemed like a certain victory to follow up the massive Barcelona win the previous week. However it didn't end that way. Somehow Sevilla were beaten, 1-0 thanks to a Javi Portillo strike. The loss saw Sevilla relinquish top spot on head-to-head with Barcelona. Behind them at this stage was Valencia just three points back, they had quietly gone about capitalising on the indifferent form of both Sevilla and Barcelona, however they wouldn't keep pace.

For Sevilla a victory and two draws followed which amazingly only resulted in being a point behind Barcelona. However Real Madrid after 29 games had crept up to a point behind Sevilla. An interesting side not after 29 games was the fact that in 4th place was Real Zaragoza who were level with Valencia in 5th, both were six points off leaders Barcelona which showed just how competitive La Liga actually was at the time.
The next game for Sevilla was a 2-0 loss away at Valencia which allowed Barcelona to move four points clear and Real Madrid were beaten at Santander.
Eight games was all that remained in the title race. A run of form at this stage would be crucial and Sevilla certainly started the final stretch on fire. A 4-1 victory over Athletic Bilbao and a 3-1 success over Espanyol was good preparation for another big test, Real Madrid away.
Going into the game the table read Barcelona 62, Sevilla 61 and Real Madrid 60. A massive game that saw Sevilla take the lead with an Enzo Maresca goal. However back came Los Blancos and despite a Javier Chevanton late goal Sevilla were beaten 3-2. Barcelona were also victorious, at Real Sociedad so Sevilla slipped four points behind with five to play.

Sevilla continued their form. Three wins over Recreativo, Deportivo and Zaragoza followed which bought Sevilla back to within two points of both Barcelona and Real Madrid who were level after 36 games.
Round 37 was crucial. By the time Sevilla kicked off against Mallorca, Barcelona had dropped points at home to Espanyol while Real Madrid had yet to play, they faced a tricky game away at Zaragoza. As it turned out Sevilla were extremely frustrated by Mallorca. A victory would've drawn them level with the big two going into the final day as Zaragoza got a 2-2 draw with Real Madrid. However all Sevilla managed out in Palma de Mallorca was a flurry of cards. The goal evaded them and it was a case of ass you were as all three draw going into the final day.
Sevilla on 71 were just behind Barcelona and Real Madrid who both had 73. Sevilla needed a miracle at this stage, even draws for Madrid and Barcelona would've be enough thanks to the head-to-head records. What Sevilla needed were defeats for both sides and it didn't seem likely. Real Madrid did go behind at home to Mallorca but the problem then was Barcelona were trashing Gimnástic. In the end Real Madrid came from behind to win 3-1 which despite Barcelona's 5-1 success was enough for Los Blancos to secure the title on their better head-to-head record while a down Sevilla lost to Villarreal 1-0 when all hope was lost.

It was a case of what might have been for Sevilla. In the end they missed out by five points if you include the head-to-head and when you look back that Gimnástic defeat and Mallorca stalemate cost Sevilla the title. They had the quality to overcome Gimnástic comfortably and a bit of luck would've won them the Mallorca game. However they played their part in what was an enthralling season in La Liga. In fact with hindsight this campaign was the last in which there was a third challenger to the throne, not until Atlético's extraordinary 2013-14 season did we have someone challenge the big two.

The consolation for Sevilla in this campaign was the success in the UEFA cup and the Copa del rey. They ended with a double but it could so easily have been a treble.

Play-off time in Spain

The promotion play-offs in Spain's Segunda División are upon us this week and next to determine the final promoted side to next season's La Liga.
This past weekend saw drama to the very last with Girona just minutes away from a first ever promotion to Spain's top flight. Lugo's equiliser yesterday meant Sporting Gijón, who dispatched champions Real Betis 3-0 sealed 2nd place on goal difference. Girona will now take their place in the play-offs.
Joining Girona in the play-offs are Real Valladolid, Las Palmas and Real Zaragoza. In Zaragoza's case they were vying with Ponferradina and over the course of yesterday they were out of the play-offs as they went behind to Leganés and Ponferradina were winning against Alcorcón. However a 2-2 draw for Zaragoza was enough to secure a play-off spot.
First legs of the play-offs take place on Wednesday and Thursday this week with the return legs on Saturday and Sunday so not much time in between.

• Real Valladolid v Las Palmas (Wednesday 19:00)
• Las Palmas v Real Valladolid (Saturday 19:00)
• Real Zaragoza v Girona (Thursday 19:00)
• Girona v Real Zaragoza (Sunday 16:00) 

Girona

Heartbreakingly close to automatic promotion, the Catalans do have a 2nd chance with these play-offs. They have performed admirably this season to get into this position. The attacking trio of Jaime Mata, Felipe Sanchón and Francisco Sandaza have fired Girona into this position and a couple more will be much-needed to help the Catalan club into La Liga for the first time. 

They play Real Zaragoza in the semi-finals and interestingly in the two games they have played each other this season its actually Zaragoza who have the better head-to-head record. 

They have been in the play-offs before and did in fact reach the final only to be blown away by Almería in 2013. Of that team that started the 3-0 defeat to Almería, goalkeeper Isaac, Felipe Sanchón and Eloi Amagat remain. The painful loss of automatica promotion will have either two affects, give Girona the extra motivation needed to finally secure promotion or shatter the confidence that was built up over what has been a fantastic season for them. We shall see. 

Las Palmas

Along with champions Real Betis, Las Palmas were the division's top scorers with 73 goals. Their main threat being Argentine hitman Sergio Araújo who helped himself to 23. Indifferent form in February through to April prevented an automatic promotion place for the Canary Islanders leaving them to contend with their 3rd play-off place in three seasons. 

Last season's heartbreak against Córdoba should be a motivation enough to break through the play-off barrier. They have an experienced squad of ex La Liga players such as Jonathan Vieria, Nauzet Aléman, Ángel López and of course Juan Carlos Valerón. 

They also have the small factor of having had the better head-to-head record against Valladolid who they play in the semi-final. In fact Las Palmas had the better head-to-head against all the play-offs sides in the regular season which could swing the tide their way. 

Real Valladolid

Relegated last-season on the final day from La Liga, Valladolid will be aiming for a swift return to the top table of Spanish football. Squad had some changes last summer but of those who did stay, midfielder Óscar performed very well. He was their top scorer with 15 goals as none of Valladolid's striker got higher than 6 goals. Defensively the team wasn't bad conceding 40 goals in 42 games and in goalkeeper Javi Varas they have a dependable shot stopper. 

They play Las Palmas in the semi-final and will need that defense and Varas in form to keep out the free-scoring Islanders. Apart from Las Palmas, Valladolid had equal head-to-head records with Girona and Zaragoza over the course of the season. 

Real Zaragoza

Just about managed to secure the final play-off spot at the expense of Ponferradina. A draw with Leganés coupled with Ponferradina's draw against Alcorcón saw the Aragón side through by a point. Of the play-off sides, Zaragoza scored the fewest goals with 61 and of those 61 goals, 23 were scored by on-loan Atlético Madrid hitman Borja Bastón. Financially its safe to say Zaragoza need the play-offs to go their way and can take hope from last season's play-offs when Córdoba sneaked the final play-off spot and won the play-offs. In terms of head-to-head with their play-off rivals they were equal with Valladolid, better than Girona and inferior against Las Palmas. 

They play Girona who will be looking to bounce back from the promotion miss so tough one to call really. 

Verdict

Play-offs are quiet hard to call especially since form does tend to go out of the window. However I am going to go with Las Palmas to secure the final promotion spot by beating Zaragoza in the final. Of course I could be completely wrong but I just think the near miss of last season will give Las Palmas the push that is needed to finally secure a return to La Liga for the first time since 2001-02. 

A 3rd promotion?

Rangers' quest for a third consecutive promotion took a massive hit tonight as they went down at home to Motherwell 3-1.
Three consecutive promotions is quiet a rare thing but it has happened once before in Scotland. Gretna are the only side to have gone from Scottish 3rd division to the Premier League in consecutive seasons. This was achieved during 2004 and 2007 but the rapid rise ended with relegation from the premier league and subsequent liquidation in 2008.

However Gretna don't have the British record of consecutive promotions. That honor belongs to Cornwall side Truro City who between 2005 and 2009 rose four divisions to the Southern League Division One South & West, which makes part of the English 8th tier. Truro are currently celebrating a promotion to the Conference South for next season which is part of the 6th tier in the English system.

The highest number of consecutive promotions that I can find is in Germany. Surely a world record and it belongs to SV Rodinghausen who between 2009 and 2014 rose an incredible five divisions. The run was halted only this season when they finished 8th in the Regionalliga West but at five consecutive promotions it will take some beating that record.

Consecutive relegations?
That was the upside but what about the other direction. What are the records for consecutive relegations. The high profile case of Portsmouth is worth mentions but wasn't consecutive but their fall was rapid none the less. From premier league in 2010 to League two (4th tier) in 2014 it is quiet a drop.
So the record, it stands at 4 from what I can gather and has happened twice, both in Germany (what is with that place and consecutive promotions and relegations). The unfortunate clubs are FC Kempten and SV Lohhof.
FC Kempten dropped 4 divisions between 2007-08 and 2010-11. They currently play at the league they dropped down to called the Kreisliga Schwaben Sud.
SV Lohhof fell 4 divisions between 1999-00 and 2002-03. The club can now be found in the 7th tier in the Bezirksliga Oberbayern-Nord.