The return of the league of Ireland and predictions

Will City finally lift the title this season?
Source: twitter

This Friday sees the return of the league of Ireland. A long winter of change has not only delivered changes in personnel but also the format, one massive change that will impact the league greatly this season. The football association of Ireland (FAI) announced its intentions of establishing a two ten team tier system from 2018 onwards which translates to three teams being relegated from the twelve team premier and just one promoted from the eight team first division. A change I don't agree with but it will make for an almighty scrap.
We'll start this post with my team Cork City. A trophy was finally delivered last November with the last-gasp goal from Sean Maguire, who has been retained for this season. That is probably the best news for City as his goal contribution will be vital in closing the gap to Dundalk. There has been a few newcomers with Conor McCormack, Jimmy Keohane, Achille Campion, Ryan Delaney, Shane Griffin and the loan signing of Rimvydas Sadauskas from Stumbras all arriving. These signings add depth to the first team in which most has been retained with the notable departure of Kenny Browne, who was part of the mean defence last season. Another disappointing departure was that of highly rated youngster Chiedozie Ogbene.

Dundalk lost three key players in Andy Boyle, Daryl Horgan and Ronan Finn. They were the headline makers last season and the challenge is how can you top those exploits. Replacing Horgan will be difficult but the signings they have made have given them depth to handle the congestion later in the season. Boyle has been replaced by Niklas Vemmelund from Derry City. They remain the team to beat.

Shamrock Rovers over the winter have gone rebuilding. Coach Stephen Bradley has pieced together a team that could be capable of challenging the Dundalk-City duopoly that has formed in the past few seasons. Will a blend of youth and experience be enough for a title? Probably not but I think they'll be closer to the top two than recent seasons.

Derry City will be playing their home games in Buncrana which will be far from ideal for their hopes of getting closer to the top two. If they can find rhythm in their temporary home quick enough they can be a match for anyone in the division.

While the European places are expected to be between Rovers and Derry behind the top two, the likes of Sligo, St Patrick's Athletic and possibly Bray will be looking to muster a challenge. Bohemians also will be looking to improve on last season's mediocre finish. However for many sides, looking up is as important as peering behind. With three being relegated it could be the bottom half of the division involved in the scramble to stay afloat.

St Patrick's Athletic struggled badly last season. They should have enough to avoid any relegation fears but that defence needs improving.
The likes of Galway and the aforementioned Bray Wanderers will be looking to good starts to ease any fears. Bray have assembled on paper a decent squad but a good start is imperative for the perennial strugglers.
Finn Harps will struggle. Last season's lowest scorers need an injection of firepower to have a fighting chance of staying up. Will it be Paddy McCourt that keeps them up?.

The newly promoted pair of Limerick and Drogheda United are probably on paper at least of higher quality than last season's relegated sides Longford and Wexford Youths. This should mean nobody is cut adrift.

The relegation battle will be a fascinating watch and as I've mentioned I think as much as half the league will be at some point involved. In the past few years the point tally of 10th has fluctuated from thirty-two last season to twenty-six in 2014. Potentially we are looking at a tally of between thirty and above being enough to avoid the drop.

1. Cork City
2. Dundalk
3. Shamrock Rovers
4. Sligo Rovers
5. Derry City
6. St Patrick's Athletic
7. Bray Wanderers
8. Limerick
9. Bohemians
10. Galway
11. Drogheda United
12. Finn Harps

The unbeaten teams 2016-17

It's the middle of February which means now is a pretty good time to have a look across the continent to see which teams are still clinging onto their unbeaten records. In total there are seven unbeaten, ranging from Croatia to Scotland. Going unbeaten an entire season takes some going but seeing which of these remaining unbeaten sides goes the furthest in the season without a dent in the loss column will be interesting. So let's have a look at the seven sides.

Albania - KS Kukësi
Current league leaders KS Kukësi are unbeaten after twenty-two games. Despite their unbeaten run their lead at the summit is just two points from defending champions Skënderbeu Korçë. Compared to last season, they have improved drastically. Kukësi were beaten nine times last season and finished third, sixteen points off the top. Their unbeaten run has given them a real chance of claiming a first ever league title to go with their first ever cup win that was achieved last season.

Croatia - HNK Rijeka
Unbeaten in twenty-one games, Rijeka are also chasing a maiden league title. Their unbeaten run currently sees them six points ahead of perennial league winners Dinamo Zagreb. The past weekend saw the leaders secure a narrow victory away to third placed Osijek in a game that nearly ended the run.

Denmark - FC København
FC København drew the capital derby with Brøndby at the weekend to extend their unbeaten streak this season to twenty-two games. The result leaves them clear at the top by eleven points from their great rivals Brøndby. Still in a great position in Europe after last week's first leg win over Ludogorets of Bulgaria, the club will surely retain the Danish crown with room to spare.

Luxembourg - F91 Dudelange & Differdange
The only league in Europe with two unbeaten teams. Both F91 Dudelange and Differdange are neck and neck in the title race. This past weekend the league returned from the winter break and saw both sides post comprehensive victories. However despite both sides yet to taste defeat this season, they are only ahead of third placed Fola Esch by three points.

Scotland - Celtic
Celtic's near perfect league campaign has them unbeaten in twenty-five games this season. That run includes just one draw, which leaves them just the twenty-four points clear of second placed Aberdeen. Such numbers make them currently the most dominant team in any league across Europe. For those interested the last unbeaten season in Scotland's top tier was 1898-99 by Rangers with Celtic going unbeaten the season before.

Ukraine - Shakhtar Donetsk
The league hasn't returned from the winter break but after eighteen games exiled Shakhtar  are yet to be beaten. It has them thirteen points ahead of Dynamo Kyiv as they look to reclaim the title back of the capital side. Shakhtar warmed up for the resumption with an impressive win away at Celta Vigo in the Europa league. Vorskla Poltava are next up domestically for the exiled Donbass club.

Where are the world class defenders?

Where are today's equivalents?

Its certainly a key topic of discussion, where are the true world class defenders in football today?. Today there is a noticeable lack of world class defenders, certainly when you consider the depth of terrific defenders from ten-twenty years ago.

For me defending nowadays just isn't up to scratch. The central defenders are lacking in true quality and depth. This is all the more strange when compared to modern day goalkeeping which is arguably as strong as it has ever been. The emphasis is certainly on encouraging attacking play with the depth of flair attacking players seemingly at its peak.

Defending had its peak in the 90s and 00s with the likes of Paolo Maldini in his prime, Alessandro Nesta, Jaap Stam, Fernando Hierro, Fabio Cannavaro and John Terry. You could probably add a lot more to that list but those were generally seen in their primes as truly world class. Today we have, that many consider world class, Chielini, Bonucci, Thiago Silva, Diego Godín and Sergio Ramos. Just on that list alone I think only Chielini and Godín would be close to the former list of 90s and 00s defenders in quality.

For me the best defence in Europe in the past few years has been Atlético Madrid. Built on the Juanfran-Miranda-Godín-Filipe Luis back line they won the La liga title conceding twenty-six. However with a Juanfran-Giménez-Godín-Filipe Luis back line two seasons later they conceded just eighteen goals. Atlético under Simeone are seen as a throwback to a bygone era. Their style of football does divide opinion in an era of attacking football but Atlético are an example of how a good collective defence can yield good results.

Another example that defending can yield fantastic results is Leicester from last season. Although not as mean as Atlético, Leicester's counter attacks last season began from  the Huth-Morgan defence being able to stifle opposition. In Kanté they had a terrific engine to help out the centre backs.

However despite all this defending as a whole is at an extreme low. New rules this season in the Premier League saw a clamp down on the typical penalty area jostling from set-pieces which has cost Leicester this season it could be argued.

Many will point to the clamp down on the tackle from behind in the 90s as the turning point that the emphasis was swinging to more attacking play. While this is to a degree true I think the major reason for the lack of top class defenders is the over emphasis on 'playing out from the back'. We see this many times as the tiki-taka obsession became the norm. Teams today prefer to have defenders in the mould of a John Stones/David Luiz who are comfortable on the ball as opposed to a Maldini/Stam type of defender where breaking up play was first and foremost.

In many ways central defenders are being asked to offer more than just defend. In a similar way that the modern full-back is expected to provide width in attacks, almost to the detriment of his defensive play.

The lack of top defenders can also be seen in the transfer market. The fees for the likes of Stones, Otamendi and Bailly reflect this. Barcelona's best defender outside of Piqué is Javier Masherano, a player who was converted from holding midfield because of the lack of proper defenders available. Sergio Ramos is hailed as a 'world class' defender because he scores vital goals but his disciplinary record is shocking and like Masherano was converted, in his case from right back when the defender decline began circa 2007-2009.

For me another glaring sign that world class defenders are depleted in numbers is seen in Argentina. The Argentine defence is a disaster. There is no Roberto Ayala type, not even a Daniel Passarella. Argentina just isn't producing defenders. England have no Tony Adams/John Terry types emerging, Italy is still dependent on the Chielini-Bonucci-Barazagli defence but they are getting older with no real lead to emerging similar quality. I enjoy attacking football but for me there needs to be a balance. It's cyclical so hopefully defenders, proper ones, emerge in the coming years but it's looking slightly bleak just now.

The insanity and inconsistency of the transfer market

The transfer window closed last week for the bigger leagues and it was another example of the insanity that it has become. It began with the big headline of Oscar packing his bags for China for a fee of around £50-55 million. A player who had fallen down the Chelsea pecking order going for a higher transfer fee than Zinedine Zidane in 2001. Such was the spending by China during the month, the premier league made a profit in the window, for the first time since it's inception. The Oscar money helped as did the very generous fee Watford got for Odion Ighalo.

What almost topped that for madness was when Chelsea were apparently prepared to use some £30 million of the Oscar money on Celtic's Moussa Dembélé. Thankfully the window shut before it has a chance to happen but expect this summer to be as ridiculous. It was the sort of potential transfer that is now typical of the market. £30 million for a player playing in the Scottish Premiership and not even the top scorer, give me a break. We are though talking about a club that seemingly takes pride in wasting or overpaying money with the likes of Shevchenko, Bathshuayi and the thirty odd players out on loan everywhere. Celtic would be mad not to sell for £30 million. Personally I think £10 million would be generous considering the standard he plays at weekly. More money than sense comes to mind.

Most of the ludicrous transfers are done by English clubs with the backing of the TV money. Last summer was probably the height of it all. I have mentioned Michy Bathshuayi at Chelsea, he was £33 million, decent player at Marseille but that price tag was impossible to turn down. Paul Pogba the €105 million player. In my opinion not even worth a third of that outlay. For that money you could've got yourself a Pavel Nedved and Rui Costa with about €20 million change. Ah but he has flashy boots and hairstyles plus sells shirts. Thought football was winning on the pitch?.
John Stones for £47.5 (€55.6) million from Everton to Manchester City. I'm sure the people at Everton who sanctioned the transfer are giving themselves a mighty pat on the back. A bit of perspective on this one really is needed. For that fee you could've got Diego Godín (€8 million), Sergio Ramos (€27 million) and Leonardo Bonucci (€15.5 million) with a little bit of change for good measure left.

I recently blogged about the distain in premier league circles towards China inflating transfer fees but the truth of the matter is English sides inflated the market to the stage it is at currently. Nobody bar the select few rich in Europe are able to match the fees in England. Juventus were only able to splash an eye-watering amount on Higuaín after Pogba was sold, Paris Saint-Germain are backed by a Qatari family while Real Madrid and Barcelona for years were scandalously taking half the leagues tv revenue to fund their transfer dealings. Bayern Munich for years have taken the approach of disarming domestic competition. Generally in Europe clubs sell to buy, some make a fortune like Sevilla, Benfica and Porto. Rarely you will see a club outside the few rich make ridiculous big money transfers but when you do it usually doesn't go well, such as the trouble at Valencia.

However at the top level the fees can be ridiculous as I've mentioned but for me the real sign that the market has lost all sense is when players playing in unfashionable leagues go for head scratching amounts. The championship in England has seen some unreal deals. Ross McCormack has transferred between championship clubs twice for fees north of £10 million. That makes him more expensive than when Carlos Bacca signed for Sevilla from Club Brugge.

Sotiriou like Dembélé has made an impact in Europe

Back to Celtic and Moussa Dembélé's price tag. I've mentioned a £10 million fee would be generous all things considered. For a player not even the top scorer in his league it would be great business if he was sold remotely close to the figure Chelsea reportedly offered. However a comparison of the inconsistency in the market takes us to Cyprus. APOEL Nicosia have this season unearthed a gem in striker Pieros Sotiriou. Sotiriou like Dembélé has fired his club into group stage European competition. Sotiriou however is playing in a slightly higher quality domestic league and his goals saw APOEL through to the last thirty-two of the Europa league. Yet there is a major inconsistency. While Dembélé has been talked about in the £30 million range, Sotiriou has only now attracted interest with figures of between £2-3 million being floated about. Why the major gap in figures between the two? It just highlights the inconsistency in the market that players playing in similar leagues can have such a wide gap in transfer fees.

Should Claudio Ranieri have walked after last season?

Ranieri victim of own success?
Source: PA

Hindsight is glorious, twenty-twenty as some describe it and while it is easy to come to conclusions after the fact, it can also in some circumstances be just as easy to predict the outcome beforehand.

One such circumstance goes back to May 2nd last year. The night Claudio Ranieri's unfancied Leicester city won the league. A miracle, astonishing and barely believable, pick any superlative and it suits the level of achievement. One superlative or description that first came to me when it was looking like Leicester might actually win it was "never to be repeated" or "once in a lifetime". It's those two four word descriptions that have me writing this post.

I'm trying to cast my mind back and I do remember saying to friends, albeit in gest, "if I was Ranieri, I'd quit, how can you top what he just did", adding "I'd retire, go out on a high". So the question is should Ranieri have resigned in the aftermath of the title victory?.

Of course I've already hinted my thoughts. I think he should've walked. Now I can understand that the lure of guiding Leicester out to the sound of the champions league theme would've been a massive pulling power in staying, it would take quite a brave and confident man to walk. Not that I am saying Ranieri is not brave, he is but the point I'm making is that it takes a certain type of personality to walk after that type of success.

The previous achievement I can remember that is in slightly the same shape of Leicester is when FC Porto shocked Europe to win the champions league. The mastermind José Mourinho collected his medal and marched through photographers and down the tunnel, leaving his players to celebrate the occasion. He left immediately. Why? Well he perhaps he had the Chelsea job signed and agreed at that point or maybe he realised he couldn't possibly achieve more with Porto so he walked out on a high. Mention Mourinho and Porto you immediately think champions league winner.

Had Ranieri left the foxes after the league win he would be instantly remembered for THAT league win in his only season at the club. The way this season has transpired it isn't impossible to think Leicester might slip through the relegation trap door. They are probably having a far worse season than many had predicted. I thought they'd get maybe a top ten finish, they signed decently in the summer, but despite the many predictions of losing all their best players they lost the one player that made them tick in Kanté. I don't think the loss of one player can drag a team from first to sixteenth in a matter of months but his loss was huge yet predictable.

Leicester were never going to repeat the title success and surely Ranieri saw this. However being 'defending champions' expectations change. Pressure of such a tag has shown this season, results prove that, rather than the 'plucky underdogs' tag they played so confidently under last season. In normal circumstances Ranieri having Leicester anywhere north of eighteenth place would constitute a good season.

Domestically Leicester have struggled but there is one thing that might in my opinion top last season and that is the champions league. So far so good in that regard although it needs to be stated that they came through a group where opponents Club Brugge and FC København are hindered by being from leagues with no major financial rewards so perspective is needed when writing about that group. Now though in the knock out stages it gets tougher. They have drawn Sevilla and this is the test. A quality team. Leicester in Europe this year have in ways just carried on last year's domestic wave. If Ranieri was to win the champions league this year then surely he would walk afterwards. If he were to win then the domestic woes would be forgotten completely and he would be remembered with Leicester solely for winning the league and champions league.

Potential changing of the old guard

As January becomes firmly part of history and February dawns upon us, across Europe there are potentially some new dawns emerging. Winter breaks across Europe are coming to an end and the resumption of many leagues mean for some anyway a return to the potential changing of the old guard. By changing of the old guard I mean dominant spells ending, teams going for their first ever titles and new forces being set up.

We'll start in Albania's Kategoria Superiore where champions for the past six years, Skënderbeu Korçë are involved in a three horse race for the crown. Pushed all the way by Partizani Tirana, Skënderbeu Korçë and Partizani have been joined by Kukësi, who lead the table. The league resumed last weekend with Kukësi winning at Vllaznia, Partizani fell to a 2-0 defeat away at Luftetari with Skënderbeu seeing off lowly Flamurtari. It leaves Kukësi four points ahead of both Partizani and Skënderbeu after nineteen games.

In Austria's Bundesliga the table at the winter break was lead by SCR Altach by two points from RB Salzburg. RB Salzburg are the current reigning champions for the past three seasons. SCR Altach have never won the Austrian league title and last season finished just five points above relegation. Should they hold their nerve to win the title it really would be an amazing achievement for a club who were promoted to the Bundesliga as recently as 2014. The league returns from its hibernation in two weeks with Altach away at Admira Wacker, RB Salzburg are home to struggling St. Polten. Sturm Graz and Austria Wien are three and five points behind respectively and still in contention. Sturm Graz host bottom side Mattersburg and Austria Wien host the Wien derby with Rapid.

To the Adriatic city of Rijeka now and a really big story is developing there. The city's HNK Rijeka find themselves top by six points from traditional powerhouse Dinamo Zagreb. Dinamo being champions for the past eleven seasons. Rijeka have never been Croatian champions despite being the closest thing to a challenger in Croatian football in the past few seasons. Austrian Alexander Gorgon has impressed, particularly in September's 5-2 victory over Dinamo and keeping him in form will be key. The league returns in mid-February with Rijeka away at Osijek and Dinamo hosting Slaven Belupo.

The Maltese Premier league has a side gunning for the title that has never won it in their history. Balzan who in 2015 played their first ever European tie currently lead the way. Malta doesn't have a prolonged winter break but it's worth pointing out that just ten different sides have won the title in Malta since the league began in 1909. This coming weekend has Balzan away to Hamrun Spartans, the chasing Hibernians are away to St Andrews and third placed Valletta, five points off the pace, are away to Tarxien Rainbows.

Zaria Balti in Moldova have lifted themselves into title contention. With the league still on a winter break for another few weeks Zaria sit third, four points shy of Milsami Orhei. Powerhouse Sheriff Tiraspol in second have played a game more than the two title challengers. The resumption has Sheriff away to Seperanta while Zaria are away to Milsami in an early title clash.

In the Polish Ekstraklasa not one, not two, but three sides in title contention are aiming for their first league titles. Leaders Jagiellonia are joined by Lechia Gdansk, separated by head-to-head. In third four points off is Legia Warszawa but sitting in fourth six points behind the leaders is LKS Nieciecza, a team based in a village of 750 people, the smallest in any top flight European league. For them to lift the title would be a remarkable story. The league returns from the two month layoff in two weeks with LKS Nieciecza going to Lech Poznan, Legia Warszawa are away to Arka Gdynia and Lechia Gdansk host Jagiellonia in the top of the table battle.

Romania is a mad league at the best of times but this season sees Viitorul Constanta lead the pack. Viitorul have never been national champions and lead the troubled FCSB by two points. In third is Universitea Craiova, five points off. Fourth placed Gaz Metan had a three point deduction which leaves them eight points off the pace and like Viitorul, have never won the Liga title.

Lastly Turkey where Istanbul Basaksehir are looking to become only the sixth different club to win the Süper Lig title. They trail defending champions Besiktas by two points after nineteen games. To help bolster their title hopes this week they added Emanuel Adebayor to their ranks. They are away at nearby Kasimpasa with Besiktas also on their travels, this time facing Karabükspor.

So across Europe there are a selection of teams hunting for their first ever league titles and long standing periods of dominance looking fragile. It's all promising to be a fascinating couple of months ahead in the season across Europe.