This got me thinking however. Assuming Qarabağ qualify next week there will then be twenty two nations left in the UEFA which have never made the lucrative group stage. They are as follows:
- Albania
- Andorra
- Armenia
- Bosnia-Herzegovina
- Estonia
- Faroe Islands
- Georgia
- Gibraltar
- Iceland
- Kosovo
- Latvia
- Lithuania
- Luxembourg
- Macedonia
- Malta
- Moldova
- Montenegro
- Northern Ireland
- Republic of Ireland
- San Marino
- Wales
The missing nation is Liechtenstein but in their case they don't have a league and play in the Swiss league system so never participate in the champions league. That leaves twenty one nations who haven't reached the promised land of the riches that is the group stage of the champions league. So my thought was, who will be the first of these to make the breakthrough?
Change to the access list from 2018:
So we'll start off by addressing the elephant in the room which is the rejig in the access list from 2018 onwards. UEFA's announcement last August that the top four nations in the co-efficient table will take half the thirty-two group stage spots will have a significant impact on this as the few links online about the format change seems to suggest that the champions route will be cut from five qualifying teams to four.
The champions route is the route for as the title suggests league champions only. This is the route the likes of Legia Warszawa, Celtic, Astana and APOEL Nicosia have qualified for the group stage from. The rumored cut from five to four makes the route even more competitive and that extra bit harder for a lot of nations on this list to make a breakthrough. So with that in mind and going off the relatively small sources online it's not looking good for these nations and their champions league dreams.
Process of elimination:
I'll eliminate the nations that really don't have a hope of ever getting a team into the group stage. They are Andorra, Faroe Islands, Gibraltar, Malta and San Marino. The leagues in these countries are far to small to muster a challenge. They may produce teams that can grab one off results and at best progress one or two rounds in either competition but as far the champions league is concerned none of these will be making any inroads. Northern Ireland is another that won't be making any appearance in the group stage any time soon. Like the aforementioned countries they best they seem to muster is the odd decent result here and there. Kosovo is only starting it's journey and it's too early to make any great detailed assumption but their showings this year point to a lot of work needed.
The awkward opponents:
You can throw in Estonia, Luxembourg, Armenia, Wales and Lithuania into this. We have seen this year with Lithuania that they had a fantastic showing with Suduva still in the play-off round of the Europa league. However their champions league interest ended with Žalgiris Vilnius making Ludogorets Razgrad earn progression over two legs. Estonia is very hot and cold with results, they tend to progress a round or two rounds some years and fall miserably short at the first hurdle in other years. Wales have The New Saints annually qualifying for the qualifiers and are due a lucky draw in the second qualifying round to make Europa league inroads.
Luxembourg for a nation of their size punch well above themselves. Obviously they hit headlines this year with Progrés Niederkorn putting Rangers out of the Europa league but collectively Luxembourg clubs have mustered some fine results down the years. Armenia is too much of a basket case of a league to sustain a strong enough challenge for a group stage berth. Bosnia-Herzegovina always seem to get horrible draws in the champions league preventing any progress but do on occasions make their opponents work for progression.
The dark horses:
Iceland are in this category for good reason. Like the national team the club scene has improved in the past ten years. Clubs are progressing a round more often than not and that is good progress from where the nation was years ago. KR Reykjavík regularly make the second qualifying round of the Europa league but it's the champions league where progress is slowly coming to fruition. FH struck lucky to get Faroese side Víkingur in the second qualifying round this year and after overcoming them they now take on Sporting Braga in the Europa league having narrowly lost out to Maribor.
Montenegro make up the other half of this category based on the progress they have made since independence from Serbia in 2006. Slowly their sides have been making life tough for bigger clubs in Europe and being based in a region that regularly produces fine footballers makes them a dark horse for me.
The contenders:
So now we have the contenders. The nations on the list that I think have the best chances of breaking their Champions league duct. Now there may be a surprise or two in this category but I will outline my reasons as to why they merit inclusion:
Albania:
Albania have made serious inroads in recent years albeit just the one club in Skënderbeu Korçë. In 2015 the club reached the play-off round of the champions league. However the Croatian powerhouse of Dinamo Zagreb proved too strong for the Albanians to break into the group stage, going out 6-2 on aggregate. It did present them with the reward of Albania's first Europa league group stage entrant which they would go on to finish bottom of the group despite a 3-0 win over Sporting club de Portugal.
This year Skënderbeu Korçë are in the Europa league play-off round continuing their progress. Since that 2015 shot, both Partizani Tirana and Kukësi have fallen at short of the play-off round. Partizani going out in the third round to Salzburg and Kukësi going out in the second round on away goals to Sheriff Tiraspol. However the threat is there I feel.
Georgia:
This might be an odd inclusion but hear me out on this one. Georgia is home to Dinamo Tbilisi who have a Cup winners cup title to their name from days gone by. Dinamo are Georgia's best bet for making the breakthrough in the champions league. In fact they were agonizingly close to doing so in 1998.
Dinamo were drawn with Athletic Bilbao in the final qualifying round in 1998 and took a first leg 2-1 victory to Bilbao with them. A close fought game saw Bilbao edge their way through on away goals as they won 1-0 in San Mamés to the disappointment of the Georgians. Dinamo have played a total of 153 games in European competition so the vast experience is there and with the league now switched around to a summer league they will be approaching future qualifiers match sharp and for me that makes them contenders.
As for other Georgian sides, the next club in terms of European experience is Torpedo Kutaisi. The best they have mustered is second qualifying round appearances in 2001 and 2002. They need stability as this year was the first year they played in Europe for four years. In terms of experience the next two clubs are WIT Georgia and Zestafoni. WIT are in the second tier and Zestafoni are outside the league system.
Latvia:
The Baltic nation have twice come close to breaking through. Ventspils in 2009 reached the inaugural play-off round going out to Swiss side FC Zurich. That, like Albania in 2015, was enough to reach the Europa league group stage. Ventspils finished bottom of the group but did muster three draws.
Ten years earlier Skonto Riga were undone in their quest by a fifteen minute surge from Chelsea at the end of the first leg in the third qualifying round. Skonto went into the 75th minute at Stamford bridge level at 0-0 before goals from Celestine Babayaro, Gustavo Poyet and Chris Sutton knocked the stuffing out of the Latvian challenge. A second leg 0-0 draw in Riga pointed to a what might have been moment for the then Latvian powerhouse.
Those experiences though quite some time ago, show the potential is there but what is holding Latvia back for me is the constant instability of regular match fixing scandals and financial crisis'.
Macedonia:
Macedonia this year has had an unprecedented two clubs remaining in Europe at the play-off round stage of both competitions. Although Shkëndija drew the short straw with AC Milan, Vardar the perennial power have Turkish side Fenerbahçe to get through for a first ever group stage appearance in either competition. It might be strange to put a nation in that has yet to have a team reach the Europa league group stage but the simple fact is Macedonia has had a couple of close encounters with the champions league group stage. None as close as possibly 2004 when Vardar shocked CSKA Moskva en route to a clash with Sparta Praha in the final qualifying round. Sparta edging through 5-4 on aggregate to prolong the Macedonian wait.
Rabotnički had a shot at the group stage two years later but their hopes ended with a 4-0 aggregate loss to Lille of France. While the Europa league group stage has been elusive, Macedonia have had five play-off or final qualifying round appearances with a group stage berth on the line. Rabotnički coming closest in 2007 and 2015 losing narrowly to Bolton and Rubin Kazan respectively. They are certainly knocking on the door and Vardar this year were very close to ending the group stage exile but came up short against FC København in the third qualifying round.
Moldova:
Moldova have probably of these nations been the closest to breaking through. They were a goal and ten agonizing minutes away from the champions league group stage in 1999. Zimbru had dispatched both St Patrick's Athletic and Dinamo Tbilisi en route to the third and final qualifying round in 1999-00. Dutch side PSV Eindhoven stood in the way of history for the Moldovans. A first leg stalemate set up a dramatic night in Eindhoven. With ten minutes to play Luc Nilis fired a free-kick past Denis Romanenco before Andre Ooijer headed home a corner with three minutes to play as Zimbru chased the away goal that would've put them into the lucrative group stage.
Since that near miss Moldova have had Sheriff Tiraspol rise as the powerhouse. Sheriff have made made the Europa league group stage thrice with two play-off round champions league appearances, both lost comprehensively. Sheriff play Legia Warszawa over two legs this month for another shot at the Europa league group stage but they hold Moldova's biggest hope for the champions league group stage in the next few years.
Republic of Ireland:
Ireland have had two opportunities to breakthrough. The first featured arguably the greatest result an Irish side has ever achieved in Europe when Shelbourne drew 0-0 with Deportivo La Coruna in 2004. Shels kept the Galicians, nicknamed Super Depor in this era, out for a full hour of the second leg before two goals from Víctor and a Pandiani free-kick ended the dream.
Twelve years would pass before an Irish side would grace the equivalent of the same stage. Dundalk in 2016 had shocked BATE Borisov in the third qualifying round to set up a play-off tie with Legia Warszawa. A 2-0 defeat in Dublin which included the concession of a silly stoppage time goal gave the Poles the advantage for the second leg. However Legia showed extreme nerves especially when Robbie Benson halved the advantage in the first half with a thunder strike. Legia eventually leveled on the night but Dundalk had chances to nick the tie.
Ireland have had two Europa league group stage appearances with Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk as a consequence of that near miss. It's often labelled the impossible dream in Irish football but having two close encounters does show potential that it could end some day.
Verdict:
It's tough to decide which nation will breakthrough first as luck of the draw plays a big role in how far teams can get in a certain year. However I'll put my neck on the line and put forward Georgia just ahead of Ireland. The reason for this is that I think Dinamo Tbilisi have the greatest potential of the teams playing in all these nations. When looking at how across the border in Azerbaijan they have transformed from also ran to contenders in roughly ten-fifteen years I feel it isn't impossible to think that Georgia could take a leaf out of that blueprint.
The awkward opponents:
You can throw in Estonia, Luxembourg, Armenia, Wales and Lithuania into this. We have seen this year with Lithuania that they had a fantastic showing with Suduva still in the play-off round of the Europa league. However their champions league interest ended with Žalgiris Vilnius making Ludogorets Razgrad earn progression over two legs. Estonia is very hot and cold with results, they tend to progress a round or two rounds some years and fall miserably short at the first hurdle in other years. Wales have The New Saints annually qualifying for the qualifiers and are due a lucky draw in the second qualifying round to make Europa league inroads.
Luxembourg for a nation of their size punch well above themselves. Obviously they hit headlines this year with Progrés Niederkorn putting Rangers out of the Europa league but collectively Luxembourg clubs have mustered some fine results down the years. Armenia is too much of a basket case of a league to sustain a strong enough challenge for a group stage berth. Bosnia-Herzegovina always seem to get horrible draws in the champions league preventing any progress but do on occasions make their opponents work for progression.
The dark horses:
Iceland are in this category for good reason. Like the national team the club scene has improved in the past ten years. Clubs are progressing a round more often than not and that is good progress from where the nation was years ago. KR Reykjavík regularly make the second qualifying round of the Europa league but it's the champions league where progress is slowly coming to fruition. FH struck lucky to get Faroese side Víkingur in the second qualifying round this year and after overcoming them they now take on Sporting Braga in the Europa league having narrowly lost out to Maribor.
Montenegro make up the other half of this category based on the progress they have made since independence from Serbia in 2006. Slowly their sides have been making life tough for bigger clubs in Europe and being based in a region that regularly produces fine footballers makes them a dark horse for me.
The contenders:
So now we have the contenders. The nations on the list that I think have the best chances of breaking their Champions league duct. Now there may be a surprise or two in this category but I will outline my reasons as to why they merit inclusion:
Albania:
Albania have made serious inroads in recent years albeit just the one club in Skënderbeu Korçë. In 2015 the club reached the play-off round of the champions league. However the Croatian powerhouse of Dinamo Zagreb proved too strong for the Albanians to break into the group stage, going out 6-2 on aggregate. It did present them with the reward of Albania's first Europa league group stage entrant which they would go on to finish bottom of the group despite a 3-0 win over Sporting club de Portugal.
This year Skënderbeu Korçë are in the Europa league play-off round continuing their progress. Since that 2015 shot, both Partizani Tirana and Kukësi have fallen at short of the play-off round. Partizani going out in the third round to Salzburg and Kukësi going out in the second round on away goals to Sheriff Tiraspol. However the threat is there I feel.
Georgia:
This might be an odd inclusion but hear me out on this one. Georgia is home to Dinamo Tbilisi who have a Cup winners cup title to their name from days gone by. Dinamo are Georgia's best bet for making the breakthrough in the champions league. In fact they were agonizingly close to doing so in 1998.
Dinamo were drawn with Athletic Bilbao in the final qualifying round in 1998 and took a first leg 2-1 victory to Bilbao with them. A close fought game saw Bilbao edge their way through on away goals as they won 1-0 in San Mamés to the disappointment of the Georgians. Dinamo have played a total of 153 games in European competition so the vast experience is there and with the league now switched around to a summer league they will be approaching future qualifiers match sharp and for me that makes them contenders.
As for other Georgian sides, the next club in terms of European experience is Torpedo Kutaisi. The best they have mustered is second qualifying round appearances in 2001 and 2002. They need stability as this year was the first year they played in Europe for four years. In terms of experience the next two clubs are WIT Georgia and Zestafoni. WIT are in the second tier and Zestafoni are outside the league system.
Latvia:
The Baltic nation have twice come close to breaking through. Ventspils in 2009 reached the inaugural play-off round going out to Swiss side FC Zurich. That, like Albania in 2015, was enough to reach the Europa league group stage. Ventspils finished bottom of the group but did muster three draws.
Ten years earlier Skonto Riga were undone in their quest by a fifteen minute surge from Chelsea at the end of the first leg in the third qualifying round. Skonto went into the 75th minute at Stamford bridge level at 0-0 before goals from Celestine Babayaro, Gustavo Poyet and Chris Sutton knocked the stuffing out of the Latvian challenge. A second leg 0-0 draw in Riga pointed to a what might have been moment for the then Latvian powerhouse.
Those experiences though quite some time ago, show the potential is there but what is holding Latvia back for me is the constant instability of regular match fixing scandals and financial crisis'.
Macedonia:
Macedonia this year has had an unprecedented two clubs remaining in Europe at the play-off round stage of both competitions. Although Shkëndija drew the short straw with AC Milan, Vardar the perennial power have Turkish side Fenerbahçe to get through for a first ever group stage appearance in either competition. It might be strange to put a nation in that has yet to have a team reach the Europa league group stage but the simple fact is Macedonia has had a couple of close encounters with the champions league group stage. None as close as possibly 2004 when Vardar shocked CSKA Moskva en route to a clash with Sparta Praha in the final qualifying round. Sparta edging through 5-4 on aggregate to prolong the Macedonian wait.
Rabotnički had a shot at the group stage two years later but their hopes ended with a 4-0 aggregate loss to Lille of France. While the Europa league group stage has been elusive, Macedonia have had five play-off or final qualifying round appearances with a group stage berth on the line. Rabotnički coming closest in 2007 and 2015 losing narrowly to Bolton and Rubin Kazan respectively. They are certainly knocking on the door and Vardar this year were very close to ending the group stage exile but came up short against FC København in the third qualifying round.
Moldova:
Moldova have probably of these nations been the closest to breaking through. They were a goal and ten agonizing minutes away from the champions league group stage in 1999. Zimbru had dispatched both St Patrick's Athletic and Dinamo Tbilisi en route to the third and final qualifying round in 1999-00. Dutch side PSV Eindhoven stood in the way of history for the Moldovans. A first leg stalemate set up a dramatic night in Eindhoven. With ten minutes to play Luc Nilis fired a free-kick past Denis Romanenco before Andre Ooijer headed home a corner with three minutes to play as Zimbru chased the away goal that would've put them into the lucrative group stage.
Since that near miss Moldova have had Sheriff Tiraspol rise as the powerhouse. Sheriff have made made the Europa league group stage thrice with two play-off round champions league appearances, both lost comprehensively. Sheriff play Legia Warszawa over two legs this month for another shot at the Europa league group stage but they hold Moldova's biggest hope for the champions league group stage in the next few years.
Republic of Ireland:
Ireland have had two opportunities to breakthrough. The first featured arguably the greatest result an Irish side has ever achieved in Europe when Shelbourne drew 0-0 with Deportivo La Coruna in 2004. Shels kept the Galicians, nicknamed Super Depor in this era, out for a full hour of the second leg before two goals from Víctor and a Pandiani free-kick ended the dream.
Twelve years would pass before an Irish side would grace the equivalent of the same stage. Dundalk in 2016 had shocked BATE Borisov in the third qualifying round to set up a play-off tie with Legia Warszawa. A 2-0 defeat in Dublin which included the concession of a silly stoppage time goal gave the Poles the advantage for the second leg. However Legia showed extreme nerves especially when Robbie Benson halved the advantage in the first half with a thunder strike. Legia eventually leveled on the night but Dundalk had chances to nick the tie.
Ireland have had two Europa league group stage appearances with Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk as a consequence of that near miss. It's often labelled the impossible dream in Irish football but having two close encounters does show potential that it could end some day.
Verdict:
It's tough to decide which nation will breakthrough first as luck of the draw plays a big role in how far teams can get in a certain year. However I'll put my neck on the line and put forward Georgia just ahead of Ireland. The reason for this is that I think Dinamo Tbilisi have the greatest potential of the teams playing in all these nations. When looking at how across the border in Azerbaijan they have transformed from also ran to contenders in roughly ten-fifteen years I feel it isn't impossible to think that Georgia could take a leaf out of that blueprint.
