Tuesday, 26 December 2017

Champions League draw reaction

With European club competition shutting down until the new year here is a preview of the Round of 16 ties.

Juventus v Tottenham Hotspur

An exciting tie that should provide a pair of thrillers. Tottenham are currently enduring a slump in form having looked very threatening in the early autumn. Much like all these ties form could be completely different by the time these ties come around in February. 
As for Juventus well they are currently engulfed in a mighty tussle at the top of Serie with Napoli, Inter Milan and Roma just about hanging in there. Tottenham being at home in the second leg could be the factor that sways this tie but I'll go against the grain here and go with Juventus to edge through.

Basel v Manchester City

Manchester City are unstoppable on the domestic front so far this season. Their only defeat came away to Shakhtar Donetsk albeit they had assured qualification by the time of the reverse. They could well be in as much irresistible form in February as they are now but even if they have a slump they ought to be putting Basel to the sword. Basel will look to their impressive recent record against English sides as a source of hope and they have already beaten one half of Manchester this season. The Swiss super league will be back after the winter break by two weeks at the time of the first leg which should mean Basel will be the fresher of the two sides. Manchester City's quality to shine here.

Porto v Liverpool

A tricky tie to predict given the inconsistent nature of both sides. Much has been written about Liverpool's strengths and weaknesses with Porto finishing second in their group to qualify for  the last 16. Domestically Porto are top of the league, level with Sporting CP and three points ahead of Benfica. The second leg at Anfield is the deciding factor here and Liverpool will use that to qualify.

Sevilla v Manchester United

Sevilla celebrate their late third goal against Liverpool
source: getty images
On current form this is a Manchester United victory. With the league gone José Mourinho will no doubt be putting his focus on going as far as possible in the competition. As always with English sides the issue of a lack of winter stoppage could be the leveller as is Sevilla's incredible home form of the past year.
The Andalucians are unbeaten in over a year at home and as such can't be underestimated on home turf. Away from home is their major weakness and this weak Sevilla parted ways with coach Eduardo Berizzo after a terrible run of recent results despite a well documented cancer operation. United to go through but I don't think it'll be the walkover many expect.

Real Madrid v Paris Saint-Germain

The headline tie of the round. Two of the favorites for the tournament will clash in the last 16 and it's got tongues wagging. Real Madrid are out of the domestic title race and have this alongside the Copa del Rey to focus fully on. PSG are sailing as expected away from everyone domestically and this is the tournament where their season will be won and lost. Can PSG make the big step up from domestic duty to getting the better of an underachieving power?. On current form they ought to be winning this. Real Madrid are in dire straits in La Liga currently fourth and a massive fourteen points behind Barcelona. Zinedine Zidane will be feeling the heat if they do not progress as will Unai Emery if his side don't. Something will have to give and I can see Real Madrid's big time experience being the deciding factor here.

Shakhtar Donetsk v Roma 

Shakhtar have already overcome Italian opposition this season
source: reuters
The tie that hasn't generated a whole lot of talk in the media. Two of the rank outsiders go head-to-head for a place in the quarter-finals. Shakhtar have only once reached the last eight of this competition which was back in 2010-11 where a Pep Guardiola inspired Barcelona put them to the sword. Roma haven't graced the last eight in a decade where they famously were thumped by Manchester United. So one of these sides will be making a very much long awaited return to the last eight. Shakhtar will only have one league game before the first leg while Roma's winter break is during January and should be relatively fresh going into that first leg. Shakhtar were impressive in the group stage beating Manchester City to rubberstamp qualification while also getting the better of another Italian side in Napoli. I can see Shakhtar edging this.

Chelsea v Barcelona

Chelsea and Barcelona renew acquaintances yet again in a tie that should bring more epic moments. Barcelona effecively wrapped up the league title just before christmas while Chelsea are struggling to replicate the form of last season with more games to be played this season. Of course form could and will be different by the time February/March comes knocking around. I can see Barcelona going through based purely on the second leg being at home which is significant although many did say that exact thing ahead of that 2012 semi-final. A high scoring tie no doubt.

Bayern Munich v Beşiktaş

Beşiktaş finally navigated a group stage to reach the last 16 of the current format for the first time. They topped their group ahead of Porto and RB Leipzig in what was on paper a fairly even group. Their "reward" is Bayern Munich, so a bit of a short straw there. They should however approach with confidence on their form in this competition. Bayern Munich since the sacking of Carlo Ancelotti have managed to completely overturn a deficit in the league to being almost over the horizon in three months. The winter break will be well beyond them by the time of the tie and are overwhelming favorites here and unfortunately for the Turks I expect nothing less than a Bayern victory.

Sunday, 24 December 2017

Celtic 69 unbeaten

Last weekend Celtic's eighteen month, sixty-nine game unbeaten run came to an emphatic halt by Hearts. The scenes after Celtic had been soundly beaten 4-0 saw manager Brendan Rodgers bring every member of the team into a huddle presumably to tell them to not dwell on the result and that they were history makers regardless. History makers they most certainly are, that sixty-nine game run is a British record, they became the first Scottish team to go a season unbeaten in one-hundred eighteen years and the first to do so in a thirty-eight game season.

Rodgers oversaw 68 of the 69 games
source: SNS Group/ Rob Casey
Such was the length of the run, it actually began under Rodgers' predecessor the Norwegian manager Ronny Deila. Defeat at St Johnstone on May 11th 2016, which saw the Perth side come from behind, was followed up with a 7-0 thumping of Motherwell on the final day of the 2015-16 season. That 7-0 win was Deila's last in charge after a campaign that saw Celtic fall below usual standards.
Rodgers would be appointed not long afterwards and the contrast would be day and night between the 2015-16 and 2016-17 campaigns.
The opening day of the 2016-17 season saw Celtic beat Hearts at Tynecastle. That was August 7th 2016, the Celts would drop points at Inverness (September 18th) and then draw again away to arch rivals Rangers in March, winning every single other domestic league game in that period. There was that roller-coaster game at Fir Park in December where Motherwell raced into a 2-0 lead, lost it, regained the lead and then lost it again with Tom Rogic scoring the winner in stoppage time. That would be the closest they would come to losing until much later in the run.
In fact Celtic would only drop points four times in the entire campaign with further draws at home to Partick Thistle and away at Ross County to finish not only as invincible title winners but treble winners too. 2016-17 Celtic were simply in a league of their own.

The current campaign began with Celtic winning the first three games before a draw at home to St Johnstone. Three more wins followed including a 2-0 Ibrox success before they needed to rescue a point at home to Hibernian in a 2-2 draw. Overall this season despite securing a third place finish in their Champions league group, Celtic haven't been as impressive as last season which was bound to happen given the incredible standard they set.
That defeat to Hearts was arguably coming for a few weeks. Celtic had a scandalous penalty decision awarded to them away at Motherwell with the team losing 1-0 going into the final two minutes of normal time. Callum McGregor was apparently felled in the area with replays showing it was most definetly a soft decision from referee Willie Collum. Scott Sinclair stepped up and converted the spot kick to salvage a draw from the clutches of defeat.
A week later a 1-0 home defeat to Anderlecht in the Champions league was as dire a performance of recent times. It was enough to qualify for the Europa league knockout phase in the new year on the better head-to-head record but it nonetheless was concerning. There was the 2-2 draw away at Hibernian the following weekend in which Celtic took a second half two goal lead before being pegged back to two-all and were a Mikael Lustig boot away from defeat in stoppage time.
The immediate reaction was going to be interesting. Would Celtic go into a slump in form or brush off the defeat and go again?. Three days later Partick Thistle were beaten 2-0 at Parkhead to get that defeat out of their system before following that up with an impressive 3-0 success at home to second placed Aberdeen. The gap at the top of the table has widened after the defeat and puts Celtic firmly back in control at the top without the distraction and media obsession of going unbeaten.