The insanity and inconsistency of the transfer market

The transfer window closed last week for the bigger leagues and it was another example of the insanity that it has become. It began with the big headline of Oscar packing his bags for China for a fee of around £50-55 million. A player who had fallen down the Chelsea pecking order going for a higher transfer fee than Zinedine Zidane in 2001. Such was the spending by China during the month, the premier league made a profit in the window, for the first time since it's inception. The Oscar money helped as did the very generous fee Watford got for Odion Ighalo.

What almost topped that for madness was when Chelsea were apparently prepared to use some £30 million of the Oscar money on Celtic's Moussa Dembélé. Thankfully the window shut before it has a chance to happen but expect this summer to be as ridiculous. It was the sort of potential transfer that is now typical of the market. £30 million for a player playing in the Scottish Premiership and not even the top scorer, give me a break. We are though talking about a club that seemingly takes pride in wasting or overpaying money with the likes of Shevchenko, Bathshuayi and the thirty odd players out on loan everywhere. Celtic would be mad not to sell for £30 million. Personally I think £10 million would be generous considering the standard he plays at weekly. More money than sense comes to mind.

Most of the ludicrous transfers are done by English clubs with the backing of the TV money. Last summer was probably the height of it all. I have mentioned Michy Bathshuayi at Chelsea, he was £33 million, decent player at Marseille but that price tag was impossible to turn down. Paul Pogba the €105 million player. In my opinion not even worth a third of that outlay. For that money you could've got yourself a Pavel Nedved and Rui Costa with about €20 million change. Ah but he has flashy boots and hairstyles plus sells shirts. Thought football was winning on the pitch?.
John Stones for £47.5 (€55.6) million from Everton to Manchester City. I'm sure the people at Everton who sanctioned the transfer are giving themselves a mighty pat on the back. A bit of perspective on this one really is needed. For that fee you could've got Diego Godín (€8 million), Sergio Ramos (€27 million) and Leonardo Bonucci (€15.5 million) with a little bit of change for good measure left.

I recently blogged about the distain in premier league circles towards China inflating transfer fees but the truth of the matter is English sides inflated the market to the stage it is at currently. Nobody bar the select few rich in Europe are able to match the fees in England. Juventus were only able to splash an eye-watering amount on Higuaín after Pogba was sold, Paris Saint-Germain are backed by a Qatari family while Real Madrid and Barcelona for years were scandalously taking half the leagues tv revenue to fund their transfer dealings. Bayern Munich for years have taken the approach of disarming domestic competition. Generally in Europe clubs sell to buy, some make a fortune like Sevilla, Benfica and Porto. Rarely you will see a club outside the few rich make ridiculous big money transfers but when you do it usually doesn't go well, such as the trouble at Valencia.

However at the top level the fees can be ridiculous as I've mentioned but for me the real sign that the market has lost all sense is when players playing in unfashionable leagues go for head scratching amounts. The championship in England has seen some unreal deals. Ross McCormack has transferred between championship clubs twice for fees north of £10 million. That makes him more expensive than when Carlos Bacca signed for Sevilla from Club Brugge.

Sotiriou like Dembélé has made an impact in Europe

Back to Celtic and Moussa Dembélé's price tag. I've mentioned a £10 million fee would be generous all things considered. For a player not even the top scorer in his league it would be great business if he was sold remotely close to the figure Chelsea reportedly offered. However a comparison of the inconsistency in the market takes us to Cyprus. APOEL Nicosia have this season unearthed a gem in striker Pieros Sotiriou. Sotiriou like Dembélé has fired his club into group stage European competition. Sotiriou however is playing in a slightly higher quality domestic league and his goals saw APOEL through to the last thirty-two of the Europa league. Yet there is a major inconsistency. While Dembélé has been talked about in the £30 million range, Sotiriou has only now attracted interest with figures of between £2-3 million being floated about. Why the major gap in figures between the two? It just highlights the inconsistency in the market that players playing in similar leagues can have such a wide gap in transfer fees.

Should Claudio Ranieri have walked after last season?

Ranieri victim of own success?
Source: PA

Hindsight is glorious, twenty-twenty as some describe it and while it is easy to come to conclusions after the fact, it can also in some circumstances be just as easy to predict the outcome beforehand.

One such circumstance goes back to May 2nd last year. The night Claudio Ranieri's unfancied Leicester city won the league. A miracle, astonishing and barely believable, pick any superlative and it suits the level of achievement. One superlative or description that first came to me when it was looking like Leicester might actually win it was "never to be repeated" or "once in a lifetime". It's those two four word descriptions that have me writing this post.

I'm trying to cast my mind back and I do remember saying to friends, albeit in gest, "if I was Ranieri, I'd quit, how can you top what he just did", adding "I'd retire, go out on a high". So the question is should Ranieri have resigned in the aftermath of the title victory?.

Of course I've already hinted my thoughts. I think he should've walked. Now I can understand that the lure of guiding Leicester out to the sound of the champions league theme would've been a massive pulling power in staying, it would take quite a brave and confident man to walk. Not that I am saying Ranieri is not brave, he is but the point I'm making is that it takes a certain type of personality to walk after that type of success.

The previous achievement I can remember that is in slightly the same shape of Leicester is when FC Porto shocked Europe to win the champions league. The mastermind José Mourinho collected his medal and marched through photographers and down the tunnel, leaving his players to celebrate the occasion. He left immediately. Why? Well he perhaps he had the Chelsea job signed and agreed at that point or maybe he realised he couldn't possibly achieve more with Porto so he walked out on a high. Mention Mourinho and Porto you immediately think champions league winner.

Had Ranieri left the foxes after the league win he would be instantly remembered for THAT league win in his only season at the club. The way this season has transpired it isn't impossible to think Leicester might slip through the relegation trap door. They are probably having a far worse season than many had predicted. I thought they'd get maybe a top ten finish, they signed decently in the summer, but despite the many predictions of losing all their best players they lost the one player that made them tick in Kanté. I don't think the loss of one player can drag a team from first to sixteenth in a matter of months but his loss was huge yet predictable.

Leicester were never going to repeat the title success and surely Ranieri saw this. However being 'defending champions' expectations change. Pressure of such a tag has shown this season, results prove that, rather than the 'plucky underdogs' tag they played so confidently under last season. In normal circumstances Ranieri having Leicester anywhere north of eighteenth place would constitute a good season.

Domestically Leicester have struggled but there is one thing that might in my opinion top last season and that is the champions league. So far so good in that regard although it needs to be stated that they came through a group where opponents Club Brugge and FC København are hindered by being from leagues with no major financial rewards so perspective is needed when writing about that group. Now though in the knock out stages it gets tougher. They have drawn Sevilla and this is the test. A quality team. Leicester in Europe this year have in ways just carried on last year's domestic wave. If Ranieri was to win the champions league this year then surely he would walk afterwards. If he were to win then the domestic woes would be forgotten completely and he would be remembered with Leicester solely for winning the league and champions league.

Potential changing of the old guard

As January becomes firmly part of history and February dawns upon us, across Europe there are potentially some new dawns emerging. Winter breaks across Europe are coming to an end and the resumption of many leagues mean for some anyway a return to the potential changing of the old guard. By changing of the old guard I mean dominant spells ending, teams going for their first ever titles and new forces being set up.

We'll start in Albania's Kategoria Superiore where champions for the past six years, Skënderbeu Korçë are involved in a three horse race for the crown. Pushed all the way by Partizani Tirana, Skënderbeu Korçë and Partizani have been joined by Kukësi, who lead the table. The league resumed last weekend with Kukësi winning at Vllaznia, Partizani fell to a 2-0 defeat away at Luftetari with Skënderbeu seeing off lowly Flamurtari. It leaves Kukësi four points ahead of both Partizani and Skënderbeu after nineteen games.

In Austria's Bundesliga the table at the winter break was lead by SCR Altach by two points from RB Salzburg. RB Salzburg are the current reigning champions for the past three seasons. SCR Altach have never won the Austrian league title and last season finished just five points above relegation. Should they hold their nerve to win the title it really would be an amazing achievement for a club who were promoted to the Bundesliga as recently as 2014. The league returns from its hibernation in two weeks with Altach away at Admira Wacker, RB Salzburg are home to struggling St. Polten. Sturm Graz and Austria Wien are three and five points behind respectively and still in contention. Sturm Graz host bottom side Mattersburg and Austria Wien host the Wien derby with Rapid.

To the Adriatic city of Rijeka now and a really big story is developing there. The city's HNK Rijeka find themselves top by six points from traditional powerhouse Dinamo Zagreb. Dinamo being champions for the past eleven seasons. Rijeka have never been Croatian champions despite being the closest thing to a challenger in Croatian football in the past few seasons. Austrian Alexander Gorgon has impressed, particularly in September's 5-2 victory over Dinamo and keeping him in form will be key. The league returns in mid-February with Rijeka away at Osijek and Dinamo hosting Slaven Belupo.

The Maltese Premier league has a side gunning for the title that has never won it in their history. Balzan who in 2015 played their first ever European tie currently lead the way. Malta doesn't have a prolonged winter break but it's worth pointing out that just ten different sides have won the title in Malta since the league began in 1909. This coming weekend has Balzan away to Hamrun Spartans, the chasing Hibernians are away to St Andrews and third placed Valletta, five points off the pace, are away to Tarxien Rainbows.

Zaria Balti in Moldova have lifted themselves into title contention. With the league still on a winter break for another few weeks Zaria sit third, four points shy of Milsami Orhei. Powerhouse Sheriff Tiraspol in second have played a game more than the two title challengers. The resumption has Sheriff away to Seperanta while Zaria are away to Milsami in an early title clash.

In the Polish Ekstraklasa not one, not two, but three sides in title contention are aiming for their first league titles. Leaders Jagiellonia are joined by Lechia Gdansk, separated by head-to-head. In third four points off is Legia Warszawa but sitting in fourth six points behind the leaders is LKS Nieciecza, a team based in a village of 750 people, the smallest in any top flight European league. For them to lift the title would be a remarkable story. The league returns from the two month layoff in two weeks with LKS Nieciecza going to Lech Poznan, Legia Warszawa are away to Arka Gdynia and Lechia Gdansk host Jagiellonia in the top of the table battle.

Romania is a mad league at the best of times but this season sees Viitorul Constanta lead the pack. Viitorul have never been national champions and lead the troubled FCSB by two points. In third is Universitea Craiova, five points off. Fourth placed Gaz Metan had a three point deduction which leaves them eight points off the pace and like Viitorul, have never won the Liga title.

Lastly Turkey where Istanbul Basaksehir are looking to become only the sixth different club to win the Süper Lig title. They trail defending champions Besiktas by two points after nineteen games. To help bolster their title hopes this week they added Emanuel Adebayor to their ranks. They are away at nearby Kasimpasa with Besiktas also on their travels, this time facing Karabükspor.

So across Europe there are a selection of teams hunting for their first ever league titles and long standing periods of dominance looking fragile. It's all promising to be a fascinating couple of months ahead in the season across Europe.

The hypocrisy towards the Chinese Super League

Prior to the Chinese Super League making headlines the world over with insane offers for players everywhere, the league was an absolute mess. Regular match-fixing scandals, generally a very poor standard compared to the K & J leagues in South Korea and Japan respectively and the nationwide interest was extremely lacking. Basically it was not where it is today. Sound familiar?

I find the whole rise if the Chinese clubs coming onto the world market fascinating to say the least. Last year I blogged about the first major forays the Chinese were making with Alex Teixera among others going east. The truth is though this has been going on for a few years. Top level football is heavily concentrated in Europe. All the best teams and players play here and generally it is seen as the place to be. With that in mind, leagues outside the big four in Europe (England, Germany, Italy, Spain) have to overpay. The interesting question for years has been what league outside of Europe will be a major player at the top level?. For years my thought was Brazil. A major producer of talent, it needed investment to keep that talent there and if it ever does it for me will be the one to rival Europe.

The rise of the Chinese Super League actually mirrors the rise of the English Premier league in some ways. In England the game was in crisis. The clubs were not making enough, off the pitch problems such as hooliganism was rife and they were falling behind their European rivals. So the Premier League was born and after some ludicrous TV deals the English clubs now have the financial muscle to raid everywhere, until the Chinese came along.

The response to the Chinese clubs coming onto the market has been I find anyway, hypocritical. When players decide to go to China it's "for the money", "mercenary", "no ambition" etc. Yet when players go to England the media doesn't kick up a storm. Does anyone think players are signing for English clubs for anything other than money? Did the likes of Shaqiri, Víctor Valdés, Fernando Llorente and the many other foreign players in the premier league dream of playing for Stoke, Middlesbrough or Swansea. It seems that if it's not an English club splashing the cash its bad for the game. We had a similar reaction when Paris Saint-Germain were bought by Qatari owners, Monaco, Zenith St Petersburg and Anji Makhachkala when they all began to flex some financial muscle.

Then we get golden quotes from Bayern Munich president Uli Hoeness labeling the Chinese spending "sick". While I do agree the sums on offer are ludicrous in the extreme there is nothing different in Chinese clubs hoovering up talent much like Hoeness' Bayern have been doing for years. One has to get the feeling that the European elite are indeed worried about the "threat" China poses.

I do think though it will take quite a period of time before Chinese  clubs become major players in the market by being in the frame for the best talent. My personal opinion is that rather than making Carlos Tévez the highest paid footballer in the world they should be using that money bringing in the best coaches. The warning signs however are plenty for China. One only needs to look at the old North American Soccer League and the fall of Anji Makhachkala as examples of what could so easily happen.

Cycles are very much part of football. We see this with Spanish sides dominating European football currently, it won't last, just like the English dominance of the 2000s and the Italians before them. The cycle of English clubs being financially unchallenged could be ending soon and if it does result in a more even spread if talent across the world, then where is the harm in that.

The European elite are rattled, make no mistake. Nothing like this scale of spending outside of Europe for in-prime players has occurred before and this is definitely a trend worth following.

Real Sociedad's relegation - good but avoidable

Thursday night saw Barcelona win at the home of Real Sociedad, Anoeta, for the first time in ten years. That last victory for the Catalans was during the 2006-07 season which saw Real Sociedad's forty season stint in the top flight end with relegation. A relegation that arguably rejuvenated the club with faith in youth restored in the following three seasons spent in the segunda.

The relegation may not have been as much of a shock as Real Zaragoza's the following season but it nonetheless was still a slight surprise. The surprise element was the relegation came almost four years to the day that le txuriurdin cruelly lost the Liga title they deserved. That 2002-03 title challenge was largely thanks to the prolific strikeforce of Nihat and Dark Kovacevic.

Nihat with Real Sociedad

The season of 2006-07 may well have ended with Real Sociedad preserving their top flight status had they managed to keep Nihat at the club. The Turk left in the summer of 2006 to Villarreal, champions league semi-finalists a few weeks previously, on a bosman. Nihat fired twenty-three goals in the title challenge season and as the Basques struggled in the following three seasons, his goals kept them in the division.
His absence for the 2006-07 season was felt. Real Sociedad went from scoring forty-nine (03-04), forty-seven (04-05) and forty-eight (05-06) to just thirty-two in the relegation season. The impact Nihat had on the team was evidently vital. Strike partner Kovacevic was still at the club but he only managed three strikes in the season. The top scorer was Brazilian Savio with five and the relegation was down to simply not scoring enough.

José Barkero started the season as coach but after a disastrous start he was fired and replaced by Miguel Lotina. Lotina would be given the rest of the season. For a chunk of the season Real Sociedad were cut adrift of safety, by twelve points at one stage. By round thirty-two that deficit was cut to three points and the fight was back on. However as highlighted above goal scoring was a major problem. At this stage the Anoeta club had scored just twenty-three times. Bottom club Gimnàstic had scored seven more just to highlight the problem even further. Round thirty-five saw Real Sociedad win and even score three. A 3-1 home win over fellow strugglers Celta de Vigo leaving La Real a point off safety and rivals Athletic Bilbao, defending their never relegated status.

The gap increased to four points with Athletic Bilbao beat Real Mallorca and Real Sociedad defeated at nearby Osasuna. A stalemate at home to Racing Santander rendered the task of avoiding relegation very difficult and out if their hands.

A 3-3 draw away at Valencia which featured own goals from Víctor López and Daniel Estrada sealed their fate. Athletic Bilbao's 2-0 win over Levante meant even a win at Mestalla would be in vain. La Real ended as the joint lowest scorers with thirteenth placed Deportivo. The Galicians making a strong case for their "dull" football in the next few seasons regularly scoring just enough goals. However defensively Real Sociedad had the best record of the bottom seven. Their defensive record was just two conceded more than Deportivo which just further illustrates how strange a season it was. There was just two goals conceded in the difference between Real Sociedad and Deportivo, yet the Galicians ended up twelve points better off. Talk about efficiency.

The relegation offered a chance to get the club back on track. In the three year spell in the Segunda a certain Antoine Griezmann broke into the first team and well we know how good he turned out. Promoted back to the top tier in 2010, La Real have been relatively free of relegation trouble. A champions league qualification in 2012-13 with Griezmann in fine form continued the rise of the club. Now under Eusébio Sacristán hopes of another return to the champions league are not too far off the mark. In many ways that relegation in 2007 was with the benefit of hindsight a blessing in disguise.  I still maintain they would've stayed up with Nihat involved.

Uzbekistan's objective - Russia 2018

FIFA's decision to expand the world cup from 2026 onwards has led to thoughts of which nations across the world stand to benefit from last week's decision. One such nation would be Uzbekistan. The Oq bo'rilar (white wolves) have established themselves in the second tier of Asian teams. If we accept Japan, South Korea and maybe Australia as the first tier, the central Asians have to be considered for the tier below. Steady progress since independence in 1990 has yielded some good and not so good results. An 8-1 drubbing by Japan being their heaviest defeat thus far.

Uzbekistan have qualified for seven Asian cups since joining the AFC (Asian Football Confederation). That tally includes the upcoming edition in 2019. Such a record has seen them as by far the strongest nation in central Asia. In fact only Turkmenistan of the other central Asian nations have qualified for the Asian cup. However for the Uzbeks, the missing achievement, apart from not winning the continental title, is a world cup qualification.

It's no secret that since the break-up of the Soviet union, only Russia and Ukraine have qualified for the world cup. A fact that Uzbekistan is trying desperately to change. They may well have done so in the qualification for 2006, had FIFA not effectively robbed them. In the Asian play-off to decide who would advance to the inter-continental play-offs, Uzbekistan and Bahrain faced off. Controversy struck when an Uzbek penalty was disallowed for encroachment, but rather than ordering a retake the referee gave Bahrain a free-kick. Uzbekistan were 1-0 up at the time and in the aftermath, FIFA ordered the game to be replayed. (So Ireland did have a case?). The replayed game ended 1-1 and the second leg 0-0 with Bahrain advancing on away goals. That painful defeat coming a year after Bahrain eliminated them at the quarter-final stage of the 2004 Asian cup.

The team didn't threaten to qualify in 2010 but a year later did finish fourth at the Asian cup, their best finish to date. They were back in the play-off for qualification to the inter-continental play-off for 2014 but agonisingly were beaten 9-8 on penalties by Jordan.

And so to this current campaign. A comfortable second round group win saw them advance to the greater challenge of the third round group stage. A tricky assignment was handed to the Uzbeks. South Korea, Iran, China, Syria and Qatar.

Coach Samvel Babayan still has a couple of previous campaign veterans to call upon such as midfield dynamo and captain Server Djeparov, keeper Ignatiy Nesterov and go to man up front Alexander Geynrikh. All of whom were around for that 2005 game against Bahrain.

The group began perfectly with back-to-back 1-0 wins, at home to Syria and away to Qatar. Alexander Geynrikh scoring both goals to move within three goals of Uzbek all-time top scorer Maksim Shatskikh. A frustrating home defeat to Iran followed before a 2-0 home win over China a few days later dragged them back into contention. Despite Marat Bikmaev giving them a lead in South Korea, the home side battled back for a 2-1 win to leave the Uzbeks in third place a point off automatic world cup qualification. Exactly halfway through the group they still have tricky assignments to come, with an away game with first placed Iran. A final group clash at home to South Korea has the making of a do-or-die game about it. However those two games are later in the year. First up in March is a double header with Syria (away) and Qatar (home). Games that could derail any word cup hopes.

So with all the talk of the world cup expansion, the Uzbeks have in 2006 qualification and the current campaign showed they are threatening to qualify in the current format. Expansion does make the task of future qualification that bit easier but the motivation of the 2018 edition being held in nearby Russia and being the second last thirty-two format tournament the hope is to break through this year. They will qualify eventually but making a tournament debut practically next door is a great way to start.

"We've made the league more fun"

It was pretty much a title decider. As close to one you will get in January. La Liga's top two going into the weekend were squaring up for the third time in a week and a half. The previous two encounters were Copa del Rey games but this was the biggest fixture. Real Madrid were top, played a game fewer than everyone and were unbeaten in forty games. Sevilla had slipped to third place by virtue of Barcelona's victory earlier in the weekend and were four points off top spot. The scenario ahead of kick-off was simple. A Real Madrid victory and it's a procession to the title, draw suits Madrid while a Sevilla victory opens the league up.

Real Madrid made a change in formation after the Copa game in midweek. Out went the 4-3-3 with Zidane switching to a 3-5-2. Marcelo and Carvajal pushing higher up as wing-backs allowing for a Nacho-Ramos-Varane back line. Sevilla were the high energy 4-2-3-1 with last week's hat-trick hero Wissam Ben-Yedder continuing up front.

The first half resembled a tactical game of chess with both sides growing into the game, Sevilla after twenty-five - thirty minutes. 0-0 at the interval and a fascinating half of football still to come. Both sides showing their quality without working both goalkeepers all that much. Sergio Rico making a comfortable save from Ronaldo and Navas was called upon later in the half.
The second half began much like most of the first half with both sides trying to find their rhythm. Sevilla settled quicker before a period of Madrid pressure saw the deadlock broken. Sergio Rico marginally off in his timing tackling Carvajal. Penalty given. After some petulance from both sides, Ronaldo eventually despatched the penalty low sending Rico the wrong way.

The concession of the goal seemed to spark Sevilla. New signing Stevan Jovetic was introduced in the midst of Madrid taking the lead. Pablo Sarabia was put into the fire of the clash with just over ten minutes remaining. Both players were to have the ultimate impact desired by coach Sampaoli. The equaliser arrived via the head of former Sevilla defender Sergio Ramos, as he headed in Pablo Sarabia's terrific free-kick into his own net. Still time for a winner and it came from the newly signed Montenegrin Jovetic. He unleashed a curling effort that, despite Keylor Navas' best efforts, found the back of the net to win the game for the hosts.

That goal had in the words of the goalscorer Jovetic "made the league more fun". Fun being competitive. Sevilla were now within one point of Real Madrid. The result also meant Barcelona climbed back into contention with Atlético having a small glimmer back in fourth. One result had opened up the league which now reads Real  Madrid 40, Sevilla 39, Barcelona 38 and Atlético 34. A three horse race with maybe a fourth.

It's been ten years now since Sevilla's last title challenge. After a similarly vital 2-1 win over Barcelona in 2007, Sevilla were shocked by bottom placed Gimnàstic. Next week Sevilla are away to current bottom side Osasuna. Sevilla will be hoping history doesn't repeat itself and that they can continue this terrific season.

This victory over Real Madrid was also a statement that Sevilla mean business. Steven N'Zonzi was a colossus in central midfield, a wonderful performance. Right-back Mariano equally as impressive and Samir Nasri also. Coach Sampaoli's changes showed why he is probably the most talked about coach this season, why the big clubs are interested in his services. Sevilla title winners?. Hopefully but they are definitely in contention. Hay Liga!.