Worst Serie A relegation battle ever?

Usually at this time of the season the battle to remain competing in the top division intensifies. However this season in Italy's Serie A it could be argued that the battle never started in the first place. After twenty-nine rounds the bottom three are well adrift of everyone else. Sixteenth placed Genoa are fourteen points clear of the drop zone and are practically safe.

In the bottom three are Pescara, Crotone and Palermo. All three have occupied the relegation spots since week twelve. Crotone are playing in their debut season in the top tier but it has proven to be a very difficult step up. Pescara, also newly promoted this season are currently bottom with a paltry twelve points from twenty-nine outings. Pescara sacked the man who guided them to promotion, Massimo Oddo, in February. Despite Zdenĕk Zeman coming in, he hasn't been able to turn the sinking ship around. Crotone lost promotion winning manager Ivan Jurić last summer but haven't sacked his replacement, (not yet anyway), Davide Nicola. Palermo meanwhile are onto their third manager of the season.

This season, unless a massive swing in results is shown, will see the lowest points total for the teams going down with the flip side of that being the lowest points tally for many a year to stay up. For example seventeenth placed Empoli have currently accumulated twenty-two points, in any other season they would be engaged in an intense battle to stay up, yet they are seven points away from trouble. Last season eighteenth placed Carpi went down with thirty-eight points and even Hellas Verona, as awful as they were managed twenty-eight points in the end.

Since being expanded to twenty teams in 2004-05, with the exception of Parma in 2014-15, no team in the bottom three has finished with less than twenty-one points. At the moment it is difficult to forecast any of the bottom three matching that total yet alone surpassing it with just nine games remaining. Since the expansion the average number of points to stay up in Serie A is thirty-five, which only highlights further how poor this season really has been at the bottom. Twenty-six being the average tally for clubs finishing bottom.

The struggles of the bottom three have led to some people in Italy to argue that the league should revert back to the eighteen team format that was in use for two decades up until 2003-04. The argument is that Palermo, Crotone and Pescara are just not up to the required standard and that their struggles make the league uncompetitive. While it is absolutely the case that none of them are good enough this season, it is very much an outlier to have all three relegation sides so weak. No trends or conclusions can be drawn from this season. If a similar pattern unfolds next season whereby the bottom three are so far adrift of everyone else then perhaps a change in format will be required.

With the eighteen team format being suggested, I had a look at the league standings from the last time that format was used in the three points for a win era. From 1994-95 until 2003-04 Serie A relegated four clubs each season. In that ten season period, six sides failed to gain more than twenty points. The average point total to stay up was thirty-six. If only three were relegated that figure would drop to thirty-two points, putting it just three points behind the average needed to stay up in the twenty-team format.

1994-95 saw both Brescia and Reggiana relegated well behind everyone else. In fact Brescia's atrocious tally of twelve points is the lowest point total in the three points for a win era. Reggiana registered just six more points. So even the eighteen-team format featured sides that simply were not good enough. Although saying that there wasn't a season were all the relegated sides were so far apart from the rest of the league like the current campaign.
The figures do support the claim that this season is the worst relegation battle in Serie A for many a season.

The distortion of European leagues by UEFA prize money

Every season UEFA shells out north of a billion euros in prize money to clubs that participate in European competition. For example winning the champions league this season will result in the club earning upwards to €100 million while an appearence in the first qualifying round generates €200k. Obviously winning the champions league for the big clubs is the ultimate aim that makes or breaks a season but the aim of this post is to look at the smaller clubs and how the prize money from Europe can have a big impact on domestic leagues. €200 - 500k isn't anything to Real Madrid but to say Crusaders in Belfast it is a game changer.

The impact of European prize money is seen right across Europe and it is positive and negative. For certain leagues the prize money from European results dwarfs domestic prize money enabling clubs to form duopolies and monopolies in leagues. Let's have a look at some examples.

BATE Borisov in 2008 became the first Belorussian team to qualify for the champions league group stage. This gave them access to the estimated €7 million base fee for qualifying. They would end up qualifying on four further ocassions building up enough funds for a lasting period of dominance. The club now play in a 13,000 all seater stadium, to the envy of all other clubs and last October secured their eleventh consecutive league title. BATE's breakthrough and subsquent domination has led to some other sides trying to make inroads in Europe with Dinamo Minsk reaching the Europa league group stage. However such domination has rendered the league uncompetitive.

Dinamo Zagreb's grip on Croatian football has rarely been threatened since 2006. Winners of the past eleven league titles, Dinamo's dominance can be attributed to European prize money and the sales of players to richer clubs. Financially they can't be challenged domestically. That said HNK Rijeka are doing their utmost this season. Opetating on a fraction of Dinamo's budget, Rijeka will be looking for a European run in the champions lesgue next season to keep them near Dinamo. Rijeka however are the only side to come remotely close to challenging Dinamo in recent years.

Another league to see a negative affect on competitiveness is the Swiss super league. FC Basel have been the flagship club in European competition for many years. They reached the champions league last sixteen in 2014 and their runs in the Europa league have helped assert domestic dominance. This season will see them clinch their eight successive league title. Again European prize money as well as player sales from European exposure are major contributers to Basel's dominance.

Smaller leagues to have felt a major change include Bulgaria where Ludogorets Razgrad are strolling to a sixth title in succession. In that period they have qualified for the lucrative champions league group stage twice. Would be challengers CSKA Sofia have spent time in the lower leagues and Levski are struggling to bridge the gap.

In Wales, The New Saints recently sealed a sixth title in a row with no threat. The annual champions league sojourns have seen them uncatchable domestically. Olympiacos have held a vice-like grip on the title in Greece for the past six seasons as have APOEL Nicosia in Cyprus who have designs on a fifth title streak this season.

Leagues that are beginning to develop monopolies and duopolies are seen in Ireland and Northern Ieeland. In the North, Crusaders are almost home and hosed for a third title in succession. Access to the champions league money annually has helped them keep ahead of Linfield and Cliftonville. Down south, Dundalk, champions for the past three seasons, will be looking to use the European money to cement their position at the zenith of Irish football. Challengers Cork City have formed a duopoly with three successive second place finishes in that time. Scotland sees Celtic well clear over the horizon with a sixth title in a row almost officially confirmed.

The Azeri league is an example where European money has formed a duopoly. Both Qarabağ and Qəbələ have reached the Europa league group stage in successive seasons enabling them to pull away from the rest of the league. Long term duopolies can be found in Russia (CSKA Moskva & Zenit St Petersburg), Serbia (Crvena Zvezda & FK Partizan), Portugal (Porto & Benfica) and Ukraine (Shakhtar & Dynamo Kyiv).

However it isn't all doom and gloom. Even long standing domination can be dismantled. In Albania last summer Skënderbeu Korçë were denied champions league entry which allowed Partizani Tirana to close in financially. With Kukësi upping their game as well the title race this season is a three team tussle. Norway had a period of competitiveness after Rosenborg's dominance fell in 2005. Three different sides have since claimed the title. Latvia saw the same when Skonto Riga's run came to an end. In Moldova, Sheriff Tiraspol had their streak ended and two clubs claimed maiden titles. The leagues in Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Sweden remain fairly competitive in recent years going by past winners and the events of this season.

European money tends to have a greater impact on leagues outside the so called big western leagues, as we have seen in the past few years where the European money has increased significantly. There is enough examles around Europe to suggest that the prize money from UEFA is distorting leagues to an uncompetitive state.

APOEL Nicosia - Five years on

It was this night five years ago, March 7th 2012 that history was made in the Cypriot capital of Nicosia. APOEL were welcoming experienced champions league campaigners Lyon to the national GSP stadium for the second leg of their last sixteen tie. History was already written getting this far but this night offered the chance to create even more and consolidate the club's place in a wonderful story of achievement. APOEL trailed 1-0 from the first leg but that deficit was closed within ten minutes in Nicosia. The hosts would go on to hold their nerve to emerge victorious on penalties with veteran keeper Dionisios Chiotis saving two Lyon penalties. APOEL on this night became the first Cypriot team to reach the quarter-finals of any European competition and of course this being the biggest of them all, the champions league.

Fast forward five years and APOEL are preparing for a Europa league last sixteen tie with Belgian powerhouse Anderlecht. Two games away from another quarter-final appearance. Sure it may not be the champions league but for APOEL to reach this far is a fantastic achievement. It has been a long journey for the club who started in the champions league qualifiers back in July.

Not many will have foreseen such a run being put together after they drew a blank in Oswestry, England against The New Saints. A 3-0 win in the home leg ensured progression but the Welsh team made them work for it for long periods. Norway's Rosenborg were next up and another first leg slip, a 2-1 defeat in Trondheim. Home conditions and an epic finale in the second leg saw APOEL fire three past Rosenborg in stoppage time. That late drama set up a play off round tie with another Scandinavian opponent in FC København. Yet again they failed to win the first leg, losing 1-0 and the Danes held out for a draw in Cyprus to edge through leaving APOEL with the Europa league.

The group that featured Astana, BSC Young Boys and the headline draw of Olympiacos provided an opportunity. An opportunity that was grasped with both hands. Victories over Olympiacos home and away provided the platform to the Cypriots topping the group by four points.

The first knockout round beckoned and it provided a massive stern test against Athletic Bilbao. A monumental effort would be required to get past the Basques. A thrilling first leg ended with a 3-2 reverse but the key positive was the pair of away goals scored by Giorgios Efrem and Yannis Gianniotas. Nobody could've foresaw the second leg events. APOEL stunningly saw off the seasoned Bilbao 2-0 in Cyprus as a Pieros Sotiriou volley and a Gianniotas penalty gave them a first ever victory over Spanish opponents in fifteen attempts.

A European run from England-Norway-Denmark-Greece-Kazakhstan-Switzerland and Spain sees the next stop in Belgium. It won't be easy against Anderlecht and they will be without their talisman Sotiriou as he was sent-off in that win over Bilbao.

Should they get through Anderlecht, APOEL will be the only Cypriot club
to make two European quarter-finals. Their European run has coinsided with their quest for a domestic double. Currently leading the Cypriot first division as it enters the split, APOEL are also still involved in the cup which sees them face AEL Limassol over two legs next month. These next few weeks could see then break new ground on a European scale while also reaffirming their domestic dominance.

Eastern Europe's champions league struggles

The last sixteen draw with no eastern representation
Source: Fabrice Coffrini Getty images

When the draw for the last sixteen of the champions league was made last December there was one glaring fact that was missed by a lot of the media. No eastern European teams. That's right, no team east of Germany/Italy had progressed to the knockout stage. This despite having six sides in the group stage (seven if you want to include Turkish teams). Of the six teams only half progressed to the Europa league after Christmas with CSKA Moskva, Dynamo Kyiv and Dinamo Zagreb finishing bottom of their groups.
This is the first time the knockout stage has been without an eastern side since the 2008-09 edition. In the years since that last knockout stage absence only four different clubs have made the stage (CSKA Moskva, Dynamo Kyiv, Shakhtar Donetsk and Zenit St.Petersburg). The statistics don't make for good reading. Only twice in that period has more than one eastern club made it through the group stage (2015-16 & 2011-12). While this season is the first in nine with no eastern progression you need to go back to 2011 for the last eastern quarter-finalist, which was Shakhtar Donetsk. You need to go back to 1998-99 for the last eastern semi-finalist which was the terrific Dynamo Kyiv side that featured Serhiy Rebrov and Andriy Shevchenko.

So is there cause for concern by this year's absence? Yes and no. It does highlight the decline of eastern European football not having sides progress but the wider issue is that eastern European football has been left behind by the richer leagues in the West. The 'no' part is that for the majority of the last decade at least one side has made the knockout stage with two quarter finalists produced in the same period. One drab year doesn't constitute a crisis but this does depend on next season's results before any trends or conclusions can be drawn upon.

A trend or conclusion that can be drawn upon however is that when it comes to the champions league, eastern sides can't progress deep into the competition. The reason for this is obvious with the west significantly richer and stronger than the east with the best players competing with western teams. While the likes of Zenit and Shakhtar have spent big money on certain players they don't have the finance to build teams capable of competing for continental honours like their western counterparts.

The lack of homegrown talent being produced is another significant factor in the eastern struggle. Under the guidance of the legendary Valery Lobanovskiy, that Dynamo Kyiv team that reached the semi-final in 1999 was entirely comprised of eastern European players. Shakhtar Donetsk reached the quarter-finals in 2011 with a predominantly Brazilian base of players.

In Russia the lack of quality coming through is seen in the mediocre performances from the national team in the last two tournaments. Elsewhere in eastern Europe the situation gets more bleak. The last eastern continental champions were Crvena Zvezda in 1991. They haven't graced the finals of the champions league/European cup since 1991-92. Their demise in Europe can be strongly attributed to the demise of Yugoslavia. No longer were they competing with the best in the Balkans domestically but only within Serbian borders with weaker opponents. Rivals FK Partizan reached the final in 1966 but have only reached the group stage twice without ever progressing.
Over in Romania, former winners Steaua Bucuresti have struggled to come remotely close of threatening to replicate that feat. They have never progressed beyond the group stage in the current format.
Bulgaria have only qualified thrice and are yet to get beyond the group stage. Belarus, Croatia, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia are all yet to get sides beyond the group stage. Poland this season had Legia Warszawa qualify for their first representative in twenty years.
Outside of Russia and Ukraine it is the Czech republic who have put up some decent showings in the champions league. Sparta Praha did at the turn and beginning of the millennium reach the then second group stage on a number of occasions. Since 2004 no Czech side has reached the last sixteen.

So can an eastern European side ever win the champions league? I have to be blunt and say no chance. Not under the current format. The money is too heavily concentrated in western Europe with the best players. Simply put the successes of Steaua and Crvena Zvezda were achieved in a far more level playing field and it is simply impossible to imagine any eastern European side including the likes of Zenit and Shakhtar to be lifting the trophy. Even getting to the quarter-finals is becoming an increasingly distant and difficult task, let alone competing for the trophy.

The return of the league of Ireland and predictions

Will City finally lift the title this season?
Source: twitter

This Friday sees the return of the league of Ireland. A long winter of change has not only delivered changes in personnel but also the format, one massive change that will impact the league greatly this season. The football association of Ireland (FAI) announced its intentions of establishing a two ten team tier system from 2018 onwards which translates to three teams being relegated from the twelve team premier and just one promoted from the eight team first division. A change I don't agree with but it will make for an almighty scrap.
We'll start this post with my team Cork City. A trophy was finally delivered last November with the last-gasp goal from Sean Maguire, who has been retained for this season. That is probably the best news for City as his goal contribution will be vital in closing the gap to Dundalk. There has been a few newcomers with Conor McCormack, Jimmy Keohane, Achille Campion, Ryan Delaney, Shane Griffin and the loan signing of Rimvydas Sadauskas from Stumbras all arriving. These signings add depth to the first team in which most has been retained with the notable departure of Kenny Browne, who was part of the mean defence last season. Another disappointing departure was that of highly rated youngster Chiedozie Ogbene.

Dundalk lost three key players in Andy Boyle, Daryl Horgan and Ronan Finn. They were the headline makers last season and the challenge is how can you top those exploits. Replacing Horgan will be difficult but the signings they have made have given them depth to handle the congestion later in the season. Boyle has been replaced by Niklas Vemmelund from Derry City. They remain the team to beat.

Shamrock Rovers over the winter have gone rebuilding. Coach Stephen Bradley has pieced together a team that could be capable of challenging the Dundalk-City duopoly that has formed in the past few seasons. Will a blend of youth and experience be enough for a title? Probably not but I think they'll be closer to the top two than recent seasons.

Derry City will be playing their home games in Buncrana which will be far from ideal for their hopes of getting closer to the top two. If they can find rhythm in their temporary home quick enough they can be a match for anyone in the division.

While the European places are expected to be between Rovers and Derry behind the top two, the likes of Sligo, St Patrick's Athletic and possibly Bray will be looking to muster a challenge. Bohemians also will be looking to improve on last season's mediocre finish. However for many sides, looking up is as important as peering behind. With three being relegated it could be the bottom half of the division involved in the scramble to stay afloat.

St Patrick's Athletic struggled badly last season. They should have enough to avoid any relegation fears but that defence needs improving.
The likes of Galway and the aforementioned Bray Wanderers will be looking to good starts to ease any fears. Bray have assembled on paper a decent squad but a good start is imperative for the perennial strugglers.
Finn Harps will struggle. Last season's lowest scorers need an injection of firepower to have a fighting chance of staying up. Will it be Paddy McCourt that keeps them up?.

The newly promoted pair of Limerick and Drogheda United are probably on paper at least of higher quality than last season's relegated sides Longford and Wexford Youths. This should mean nobody is cut adrift.

The relegation battle will be a fascinating watch and as I've mentioned I think as much as half the league will be at some point involved. In the past few years the point tally of 10th has fluctuated from thirty-two last season to twenty-six in 2014. Potentially we are looking at a tally of between thirty and above being enough to avoid the drop.

1. Cork City
2. Dundalk
3. Shamrock Rovers
4. Sligo Rovers
5. Derry City
6. St Patrick's Athletic
7. Bray Wanderers
8. Limerick
9. Bohemians
10. Galway
11. Drogheda United
12. Finn Harps

The unbeaten teams 2016-17

It's the middle of February which means now is a pretty good time to have a look across the continent to see which teams are still clinging onto their unbeaten records. In total there are seven unbeaten, ranging from Croatia to Scotland. Going unbeaten an entire season takes some going but seeing which of these remaining unbeaten sides goes the furthest in the season without a dent in the loss column will be interesting. So let's have a look at the seven sides.

Albania - KS Kukësi
Current league leaders KS Kukësi are unbeaten after twenty-two games. Despite their unbeaten run their lead at the summit is just two points from defending champions Skënderbeu Korçë. Compared to last season, they have improved drastically. Kukësi were beaten nine times last season and finished third, sixteen points off the top. Their unbeaten run has given them a real chance of claiming a first ever league title to go with their first ever cup win that was achieved last season.

Croatia - HNK Rijeka
Unbeaten in twenty-one games, Rijeka are also chasing a maiden league title. Their unbeaten run currently sees them six points ahead of perennial league winners Dinamo Zagreb. The past weekend saw the leaders secure a narrow victory away to third placed Osijek in a game that nearly ended the run.

Denmark - FC København
FC København drew the capital derby with Brøndby at the weekend to extend their unbeaten streak this season to twenty-two games. The result leaves them clear at the top by eleven points from their great rivals Brøndby. Still in a great position in Europe after last week's first leg win over Ludogorets of Bulgaria, the club will surely retain the Danish crown with room to spare.

Luxembourg - F91 Dudelange & Differdange
The only league in Europe with two unbeaten teams. Both F91 Dudelange and Differdange are neck and neck in the title race. This past weekend the league returned from the winter break and saw both sides post comprehensive victories. However despite both sides yet to taste defeat this season, they are only ahead of third placed Fola Esch by three points.

Scotland - Celtic
Celtic's near perfect league campaign has them unbeaten in twenty-five games this season. That run includes just one draw, which leaves them just the twenty-four points clear of second placed Aberdeen. Such numbers make them currently the most dominant team in any league across Europe. For those interested the last unbeaten season in Scotland's top tier was 1898-99 by Rangers with Celtic going unbeaten the season before.

Ukraine - Shakhtar Donetsk
The league hasn't returned from the winter break but after eighteen games exiled Shakhtar  are yet to be beaten. It has them thirteen points ahead of Dynamo Kyiv as they look to reclaim the title back of the capital side. Shakhtar warmed up for the resumption with an impressive win away at Celta Vigo in the Europa league. Vorskla Poltava are next up domestically for the exiled Donbass club.

Where are the world class defenders?

Where are today's equivalents?

Its certainly a key topic of discussion, where are the true world class defenders in football today?. Today there is a noticeable lack of world class defenders, certainly when you consider the depth of terrific defenders from ten-twenty years ago.

For me defending nowadays just isn't up to scratch. The central defenders are lacking in true quality and depth. This is all the more strange when compared to modern day goalkeeping which is arguably as strong as it has ever been. The emphasis is certainly on encouraging attacking play with the depth of flair attacking players seemingly at its peak.

Defending had its peak in the 90s and 00s with the likes of Paolo Maldini in his prime, Alessandro Nesta, Jaap Stam, Fernando Hierro, Fabio Cannavaro and John Terry. You could probably add a lot more to that list but those were generally seen in their primes as truly world class. Today we have, that many consider world class, Chielini, Bonucci, Thiago Silva, Diego Godín and Sergio Ramos. Just on that list alone I think only Chielini and Godín would be close to the former list of 90s and 00s defenders in quality.

For me the best defence in Europe in the past few years has been Atlético Madrid. Built on the Juanfran-Miranda-Godín-Filipe Luis back line they won the La liga title conceding twenty-six. However with a Juanfran-Giménez-Godín-Filipe Luis back line two seasons later they conceded just eighteen goals. Atlético under Simeone are seen as a throwback to a bygone era. Their style of football does divide opinion in an era of attacking football but Atlético are an example of how a good collective defence can yield good results.

Another example that defending can yield fantastic results is Leicester from last season. Although not as mean as Atlético, Leicester's counter attacks last season began from  the Huth-Morgan defence being able to stifle opposition. In Kanté they had a terrific engine to help out the centre backs.

However despite all this defending as a whole is at an extreme low. New rules this season in the Premier League saw a clamp down on the typical penalty area jostling from set-pieces which has cost Leicester this season it could be argued.

Many will point to the clamp down on the tackle from behind in the 90s as the turning point that the emphasis was swinging to more attacking play. While this is to a degree true I think the major reason for the lack of top class defenders is the over emphasis on 'playing out from the back'. We see this many times as the tiki-taka obsession became the norm. Teams today prefer to have defenders in the mould of a John Stones/David Luiz who are comfortable on the ball as opposed to a Maldini/Stam type of defender where breaking up play was first and foremost.

In many ways central defenders are being asked to offer more than just defend. In a similar way that the modern full-back is expected to provide width in attacks, almost to the detriment of his defensive play.

The lack of top defenders can also be seen in the transfer market. The fees for the likes of Stones, Otamendi and Bailly reflect this. Barcelona's best defender outside of Piqué is Javier Masherano, a player who was converted from holding midfield because of the lack of proper defenders available. Sergio Ramos is hailed as a 'world class' defender because he scores vital goals but his disciplinary record is shocking and like Masherano was converted, in his case from right back when the defender decline began circa 2007-2009.

For me another glaring sign that world class defenders are depleted in numbers is seen in Argentina. The Argentine defence is a disaster. There is no Roberto Ayala type, not even a Daniel Passarella. Argentina just isn't producing defenders. England have no Tony Adams/John Terry types emerging, Italy is still dependent on the Chielini-Bonucci-Barazagli defence but they are getting older with no real lead to emerging similar quality. I enjoy attacking football but for me there needs to be a balance. It's cyclical so hopefully defenders, proper ones, emerge in the coming years but it's looking slightly bleak just now.