How do newly promoted teams fare?

On Monday Brighton & Hove Albion rubberstamped their promotion to the Premier league. Their promotion has led to the annual questions and predictions of how will they fare next season. The cliche being that newly promoted teams always tend to struggle and go down. A perceived gulf between Premier league and football league in terms of finance is a major factor in how well or poor teams do. Brighton now have access to the cash bonanza that is the Premier league TV money. So just how do newly promoted teams fare in the season after promotion. For this I examined all the promotions in five European leagues going back to the 1991-92 season.

England
We'll start in England with the richest league in the world. Between 1991-92 and 2015-16 there were seventy-five promotions into the top flight. Of those seventy-five, thirty-three were relegated in their first season in the top division. Percentage-wise this translates to just under 45%. A fascinating figure given how pundits and experts usually predict doom and gloom for newly promoted clubs.
In the time period studied there has only been two occasions where none of the promoted clubs suffered relegation (2001-02 & 2011-12). While the 1997-98 season was the sole occasion where all promoted sides headed straight back down. Collectively forty-four percent is a fairly decent percentage for newly promoted clubs, further breaking down of the stats isn't pleasent reading for teams coming up via the play-offs however. Twenty-five promotions have come through this route and sixteen have resulted in relegation giving us a 64% going down rate.

France
Across the channel in France the figure of relegation after promotion is even more favourable. From 1991-92 to 2015-16 seventy-four promotions occured. Twenty-six of those ended in the agony of relegation, which leaves a 37% relegation rate.
In the time period France has yet to see a season where all promoted teams went down together. On the flip side there were five seasons (13-14, 05-06, 99-00, 94-95 & 91-92) where all promoted teams stayed clear of the trap door.
Going up as second tier champions in France greatly enhances your survival hopes. Of the twenty-five promotions in this category just seven went down which is just 28%.
However what is more astounding is that the third promoted side has been relegated 32% in the time period compared to 44% for the second promoted sides.

Germany
The Bundesliga's format over the time period saw the fewest number of promotions with sixty-nine. Twenty-four of which ended in relegation the following year. In the five leagues examined, Germany had the highest number of seasons where no promoted teams tasted relegation. A total of eight seasons (15-16, 09-10, 08-09, 06-07, 04-05, 97-98, 96-97 & 95-96). Only one season (92-93) saw all newly promoted sides go down.
Germany is also the only one of the five leagues in the time period where a newly promoted team went on to win the top division title. That was Kaiserslautern in 1997-98, a quite remarkable achievement. Kaiserslautern went up as second tier champions and only six of those were relegated in the time frame, a 24% relegation rate, the lowest of the five leagues.

Italy
Serie A had the most promotions in the time period with ninety-one. This was down to promoting four clubs each season from 91-92 until 03-04. Out of those promotions, thirty-three were relegated, for a relegation rate of just over 36%.
However an interesting observation from the statistics here is that going up as the second best team has the best chance of staying up. Just six in this category have been relegated which leaves a 24% relegation rate.
Serie A has had three seasons (07-08, 06-07 & 95-96) where none of the promoted clubs went down. Serie A has also not had a season in the time frame where all promoted teams went down. A special mention must go to 2005-06 where, due to league restructuring, there were six newly promoted teams, just one went down.
The best performance from a promoted team was Juventus' 3rd place in 2007-08.

Spain
La Liga had seventy-four promotions and just twenty-five of them resulted in relegation, for a 34% relegation rate. On seven ocassions (15-16, 13-14, 11-12, 00-01, 94-95, 92-93 & 91-92) all promoted clubs stayed up. 1996-97 was the only season that saw all promoted teams go down.
A pattern of fascination is that in the time period only four runners-up have relegated leaving an incredible relegation rate of just 16%, the lowest of any category in the five leagues.
In terms of best performing, that honour goes to Real Betis and their 3rd place in 1994-95.

Conclusion
The main point I wanted to prove here was that newly promoted teams do in actual fact have as good a chance as any of competing in the higher division. All of the claims such as 'they'll struggle as usual','they'll find the step up too difficult' etc, aren't really true. The statistics in a time period of twenty-five years shows that in all five leagues less than half of the promoted teams suffer relegation. The exact overall picture is one hundread forty-two relegations out of three hundread eighty-three promotions for a 37% relegation rate.
Statistically Spain has the best survival chances for newly promoted teams with the financial gap between bottom end La Liga and Segunda seemingly not insurmountable.
England has the worst survival chances at 44% but still enough to give hope. The reason for their high percentage is down to the massive gulf in wealth between Premier league and football league.
Germany was the only league of the five to remain in the same format throughout the time period. Their figure of 35% therefore represents an accurate rate. Italy's four up four down for more than a decade saw them with the most promotions. There might be a further format change in the pipeline given the very poor performance this season at the bottom.

Island teams hindered by location?

This past weekend Las Palmas won again at home with a 4-1 success over Real Betis. The result took Las Palmas onto thirty-eight points for the season. However things aren't as rosy when Las Palmas are away from the Canary islands. Of that thirty-eight points total, only six have come away from home. So are Las Palmas and other island clubs hindered by their location?

Las Palmas are the only island team competing in La Liga this season. The other big Canary island club, Tenerife, are challenging for promotion from Segunda. Tenerife haven't been in the top division since 2009-10 and since then have even spent time in the third tier. The Segunda this season also features Real Mallorca, although that might not be the case next season given the Palma club are struggling badly. No island team has ever won La Liga and Mallorca were the only one to qualify for the champions league back in 2001-02.

Over in Serie A it is all but mathematically confirmed that the island of Scilly will be without representation next season. Palermo's paltry total of fifteen points has them slipping into Serie B. Oddly however, Palermo have won twice as many points away from home this season with ten collected.

Barring a drastic combination of results, Sardinia's Cagliari will be hanging around the top division next season. They have won twice as many points at home than on their travels this campaign. Back in Scilly, this season could've featured two sides from the island had Trapani overcome Pescara last season. Trapani now find themselves engulfed in a relegation dogfight in Serie B.

Unless Corsica's SC Bastia can avoid slipping through the Ligue 1 relegation trap door this season, next season will be the first since 2010-11 that there will be no Corsican involvement in Ligue 1. Of Bastia's twenty-eight points, ten have come away from the Mediteranean island. Arch-rivals AC Ajaccio are mid-table in Ligue 2 with the majority of their thirty-nine points coming at home. The tiny Gazélac Ajaccio are also in mid-table after their debut top flight campaign last season.

The Portuguese archipelago of Madeira last season had three top division clubs. Next season it could very well be just one. Nacional currently occupy seventeeth place in the Superliga. There is no significant difference in their home and away records this season. Funchal rivals Maritímo however do have a significant difference. Their home record has yielded more than twice as many points than on their travels. Such a record sees them sitting in sixth.
União da Madeira find themselves fourth in the segunda and like Maritímo there is a twenty point difference in favour of their home record.
The only Azores side in Portugal's top two divisions, Santa Clara have won twelve more points at home than on their travels. The club however last graced the top flight in 2002-03.

In Greece there aren't many island teams in the Super league. Historically it was usually OFI Crete and Ergotelis in the top division but just the one Crete team features in the top flight this season and that's Platanias. Their home record is almost twice as good as their away record which places them in seventh place. No Crete club has managed to win the national title.
The holiday island of Corfu has PAE Kerkyra competing in the top flight this season after promotion last term. The club was formed from a 2013 merger of AO Kerkyra and Kassiopi FC. Last season Lesbos club Kalloni were relegated from the Super league and this season look like taking the drop into the third tier. Crete clubs OFI and Chania also feature in the second tier with the latter battling the drop.

Island teams across Europe have tended to struggle. In fact only twice have island clubs managed to wrestle the title off the mainland in Europe with Cagliari in 1970 and IFK Mariehamn's title win last October in Finland's Veikkausliiga. The logical and simplistic conclusion is that their island location hinders the chances of success. There are a myriad of reasons why, one of which is money. In a lot of cases these teams spend more on travel costs than anyone else in their leagues. Money that mainland teams can spend on players. The travel expenditure also deprives money to keep star players at these clubs. For example Las Palmas couldn't afford local talent such as David Silva, Juan Carlos Valerón, Jesé Rodríguez, Mauro Icardi and Sandro Ramírez, who all left the island at young ages.

As we have also seen with some teams, their records on their travels are significantly poorer than their home records which translates to rarely higher than mid-table finishes. If the away records could be improved then perhaps these clubs could buck the struggle trend associated with island teams.

At least we'll be in the next one

The recent international window all but sealed the hopes of Qatar making their world cup debut in Russia next year. Sucessive 1-0 defeats to Iran and then Uzbekistan leaves the maroons bottom of their world cup group with a very remote opportunity of making the play-offs. Automatic qualification is mathematically beyond them after the latest results.

Their impending elimination will mean Qatar in 2022 will be the first world cup hosts to have never qualified prior to hosting. There was genuine hope in the country that they had a decent chance of making it to Russia. The ease of which they qualified through round three of the Asian world cup qualifiers only fuelled those hopes.

Three defeats from their opening three games in the final group stage was just making the task near on impossible to recover. Uruguayan Jorge Fossati was drafted in as manager at this stage to try and rescue a campaign that was unravelling at an alarming rate. A 1-0 win at home to Syria at least got them off the foot of the group. A 2-1 victory over an experimental Russia in a November friendly seemed to restore some confidence. A game that saw them fall behind to an early Aleksander Kokorin penalty was rescued when Boualem Khouki converted a penalty of his own. Karim Boudiaf's second half strike being enough after Kokoron missed a late penalty.

Two decent results that were undone by a largely frustrating 0-0 stalemate away in China. A result that suited neither side that were attempting to rescue fading world cup hopes. Since that November qualifier, two very underwhelming results in friendlies against Moldova and Azerbaijan followed. Then came this international window of two further defeats.

At the time of writing, Fossati is still in charge and in defence of the Uruguayan it was an uphill task to rescue the campaign after that nightmare start. If anything this campaign has only highlighted just how short the team is of making any inroads for qualification, under the current format. The positives for Qatar are that, in theory at least, qualification for future world cups get easier. January's announcement of a forty-eight team world cup from 2026 was good news for Asia and the likes of Qatar but a lot of work is still required to ensure the team is of the required standard to qualify.

How they go about obtaining that standard is anyone's guess. Their favoured approach of using naturalized players from the domestic league has thus far fallen terribly short. It is also a strategy heavily critised by local media and fans with a 'lack of passion' being branded about recently.

The money the country has poured into youth developement programmes is yet to unearth a wealth of talent, if you excuse the pun. Young attacker Akram Afif is the first Qatari to play in La Liga with Sporting Gijón but with their home world cup less than six years away, a few more players like Afif will need to be developed.

Authorities in Qatar and the football association will be looking to make an impact at their home world cup but the present campaign doesn't bode well for those plans. Drawing with China at this moment in time is where Qatar are at in Asia. Their failure to qualify for 2018 could be a blessing in disguise to give them a reality check but at least they'll be at the next one.

Fine margins of the Genk Europa League run

Genk score a killer away goal in Cork

It was a sogey, windy night in Cork on July 21st 2016, however it was also a momentus evening as Cork City had just eliminated Swedish cup holders BK Häcken from the Europa League. We had set up a dual with Belgians K.R.C Genk, or so we thought. They were facing Montenegrin side FK Budućnost. Genk were 2-0 up from the first leg but the return leg was gone to penalties after the hosts from the Adriatic roared back with first half goals. Genk rode their luck as they also were reduced to ten men with Bernard Kumordzi seeing red late on. In the shooutout missed spot kicks from Momcilo Raspopović and Luka Mirković saw Genk squeeze through. There was to be no amending flights on my part to Podgorica.

After those events it was City v Genk in a two legged tie. I can still remember that first leg in the Luminus Arena. I was actually gutted City didn't take a draw. The game was lost to a first half goal from Leon Bailey, more on him later. Certainly the best City performance that I can remember. My pre-match prediction of 6-0 Genk thankfully not coming to fruition. Genk unfortunately were clinical in the second leg at a sunny Turner's Cross. Goals from Thomas Buffel, a lovely finish, and Sebastien Dewaest, a powerful header saw them through. We did score later in the game through captain Alan Bennett but bowed out 3-1 on aggregate.

City's European run was over and Genk's was to continue for months yet. However I don't think even the most ardent Genk fans could foresee the events of the next eight months unfolding.

Genk would make the group stage by despatching Lokomotiva Zagreb, or if you want to be cynical Dinamo Zagreb's B team, 4-2 on aggregate in the next round. It would be in the group stage that Genk would shock a quality Athletic Bilbao side with a 2-0 win at the Luminus Arena. A 5-3 defeat at San Mamés barria would hit headlines with Aritz Aduriz scoring all five home goals but Jamaican winger Leon Bailey scored a stunner to alert Europe of his talents. In a group also featuring Italians Sassuolo and Austrian side Rapid Wien, Genk would finish top, comfortably going through to the final thirty-two in the new year.

They would be paired with fellow surprise package Astra Giurgiu of Romania but before that tie there was some big off the pitch changes. Firstly manager Peter Maes was sacked for very inconcistent domestic form. Form which left them in mid-table in the Pro League despite their polar opposite European form. Taking over was Albert Stuivenberg but he would be dealt two big blows in the January transfer window. Midfield powerhouse Wilfred Ndidi was sold for £15 million and then on the final day of the window, Leon Bailey was sold to Bayer Leverkusen for £12 million.

The appointment of Stuivenberg would lead to an improvement in domestic results and it would also see Genk progress further in the Europa League. A 2-2 draw in Romania was followed up by a 1-0 success at the Luminus Arena. Genk were now into the last sixteen and the draw would produce a very familiar opponent. An all-Belgian tie as Genk were pitted against K.A.A Gent.

Genk took full of advantage of that familiarity hitting Gent on the counter. A resounding 5-2 win away which also saw Gent reduced to ten men, providing the platform for the passage through to the last eight. A second leg draw completed the job and now the belief and confidence was sky high if it wasn't already.

The quarter-final draw made the day after that second leg draw with Gent produced anothet trip to Spain, this time to Celta de Vigo. A place in the semi-final of the Europa League at stake. A prospect that few would've envisioned. The first leg is scheduled for April 13th at the Estádio Balaidos with the home leg a week later.

To think this run was all built upon after those two missed penalties in Montenegro on that humid night back in July. Fine margins.

Worst Serie A relegation battle ever?

Usually at this time of the season the battle to remain competing in the top division intensifies. However this season in Italy's Serie A it could be argued that the battle never started in the first place. After twenty-nine rounds the bottom three are well adrift of everyone else. Sixteenth placed Genoa are fourteen points clear of the drop zone and are practically safe.

In the bottom three are Pescara, Crotone and Palermo. All three have occupied the relegation spots since week twelve. Crotone are playing in their debut season in the top tier but it has proven to be a very difficult step up. Pescara, also newly promoted this season are currently bottom with a paltry twelve points from twenty-nine outings. Pescara sacked the man who guided them to promotion, Massimo Oddo, in February. Despite Zdenĕk Zeman coming in, he hasn't been able to turn the sinking ship around. Crotone lost promotion winning manager Ivan Jurić last summer but haven't sacked his replacement, (not yet anyway), Davide Nicola. Palermo meanwhile are onto their third manager of the season.

This season, unless a massive swing in results is shown, will see the lowest points total for the teams going down with the flip side of that being the lowest points tally for many a year to stay up. For example seventeenth placed Empoli have currently accumulated twenty-two points, in any other season they would be engaged in an intense battle to stay up, yet they are seven points away from trouble. Last season eighteenth placed Carpi went down with thirty-eight points and even Hellas Verona, as awful as they were managed twenty-eight points in the end.

Since being expanded to twenty teams in 2004-05, with the exception of Parma in 2014-15, no team in the bottom three has finished with less than twenty-one points. At the moment it is difficult to forecast any of the bottom three matching that total yet alone surpassing it with just nine games remaining. Since the expansion the average number of points to stay up in Serie A is thirty-five, which only highlights further how poor this season really has been at the bottom. Twenty-six being the average tally for clubs finishing bottom.

The struggles of the bottom three have led to some people in Italy to argue that the league should revert back to the eighteen team format that was in use for two decades up until 2003-04. The argument is that Palermo, Crotone and Pescara are just not up to the required standard and that their struggles make the league uncompetitive. While it is absolutely the case that none of them are good enough this season, it is very much an outlier to have all three relegation sides so weak. No trends or conclusions can be drawn from this season. If a similar pattern unfolds next season whereby the bottom three are so far adrift of everyone else then perhaps a change in format will be required.

With the eighteen team format being suggested, I had a look at the league standings from the last time that format was used in the three points for a win era. From 1994-95 until 2003-04 Serie A relegated four clubs each season. In that ten season period, six sides failed to gain more than twenty points. The average point total to stay up was thirty-six. If only three were relegated that figure would drop to thirty-two points, putting it just three points behind the average needed to stay up in the twenty-team format.

1994-95 saw both Brescia and Reggiana relegated well behind everyone else. In fact Brescia's atrocious tally of twelve points is the lowest point total in the three points for a win era. Reggiana registered just six more points. So even the eighteen-team format featured sides that simply were not good enough. Although saying that there wasn't a season were all the relegated sides were so far apart from the rest of the league like the current campaign.
The figures do support the claim that this season is the worst relegation battle in Serie A for many a season.

The distortion of European leagues by UEFA prize money

Every season UEFA shells out north of a billion euros in prize money to clubs that participate in European competition. For example winning the champions league this season will result in the club earning upwards to €100 million while an appearence in the first qualifying round generates €200k. Obviously winning the champions league for the big clubs is the ultimate aim that makes or breaks a season but the aim of this post is to look at the smaller clubs and how the prize money from Europe can have a big impact on domestic leagues. €200 - 500k isn't anything to Real Madrid but to say Crusaders in Belfast it is a game changer.

The impact of European prize money is seen right across Europe and it is positive and negative. For certain leagues the prize money from European results dwarfs domestic prize money enabling clubs to form duopolies and monopolies in leagues. Let's have a look at some examples.

BATE Borisov in 2008 became the first Belorussian team to qualify for the champions league group stage. This gave them access to the estimated €7 million base fee for qualifying. They would end up qualifying on four further ocassions building up enough funds for a lasting period of dominance. The club now play in a 13,000 all seater stadium, to the envy of all other clubs and last October secured their eleventh consecutive league title. BATE's breakthrough and subsquent domination has led to some other sides trying to make inroads in Europe with Dinamo Minsk reaching the Europa league group stage. However such domination has rendered the league uncompetitive.

Dinamo Zagreb's grip on Croatian football has rarely been threatened since 2006. Winners of the past eleven league titles, Dinamo's dominance can be attributed to European prize money and the sales of players to richer clubs. Financially they can't be challenged domestically. That said HNK Rijeka are doing their utmost this season. Opetating on a fraction of Dinamo's budget, Rijeka will be looking for a European run in the champions lesgue next season to keep them near Dinamo. Rijeka however are the only side to come remotely close to challenging Dinamo in recent years.

Another league to see a negative affect on competitiveness is the Swiss super league. FC Basel have been the flagship club in European competition for many years. They reached the champions league last sixteen in 2014 and their runs in the Europa league have helped assert domestic dominance. This season will see them clinch their eight successive league title. Again European prize money as well as player sales from European exposure are major contributers to Basel's dominance.

Smaller leagues to have felt a major change include Bulgaria where Ludogorets Razgrad are strolling to a sixth title in succession. In that period they have qualified for the lucrative champions league group stage twice. Would be challengers CSKA Sofia have spent time in the lower leagues and Levski are struggling to bridge the gap.

In Wales, The New Saints recently sealed a sixth title in a row with no threat. The annual champions league sojourns have seen them uncatchable domestically. Olympiacos have held a vice-like grip on the title in Greece for the past six seasons as have APOEL Nicosia in Cyprus who have designs on a fifth title streak this season.

Leagues that are beginning to develop monopolies and duopolies are seen in Ireland and Northern Ieeland. In the North, Crusaders are almost home and hosed for a third title in succession. Access to the champions league money annually has helped them keep ahead of Linfield and Cliftonville. Down south, Dundalk, champions for the past three seasons, will be looking to use the European money to cement their position at the zenith of Irish football. Challengers Cork City have formed a duopoly with three successive second place finishes in that time. Scotland sees Celtic well clear over the horizon with a sixth title in a row almost officially confirmed.

The Azeri league is an example where European money has formed a duopoly. Both Qarabağ and Qəbələ have reached the Europa league group stage in successive seasons enabling them to pull away from the rest of the league. Long term duopolies can be found in Russia (CSKA Moskva & Zenit St Petersburg), Serbia (Crvena Zvezda & FK Partizan), Portugal (Porto & Benfica) and Ukraine (Shakhtar & Dynamo Kyiv).

However it isn't all doom and gloom. Even long standing domination can be dismantled. In Albania last summer Skënderbeu Korçë were denied champions league entry which allowed Partizani Tirana to close in financially. With Kukësi upping their game as well the title race this season is a three team tussle. Norway had a period of competitiveness after Rosenborg's dominance fell in 2005. Three different sides have since claimed the title. Latvia saw the same when Skonto Riga's run came to an end. In Moldova, Sheriff Tiraspol had their streak ended and two clubs claimed maiden titles. The leagues in Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Sweden remain fairly competitive in recent years going by past winners and the events of this season.

European money tends to have a greater impact on leagues outside the so called big western leagues, as we have seen in the past few years where the European money has increased significantly. There is enough examles around Europe to suggest that the prize money from UEFA is distorting leagues to an uncompetitive state.

APOEL Nicosia - Five years on

It was this night five years ago, March 7th 2012 that history was made in the Cypriot capital of Nicosia. APOEL were welcoming experienced champions league campaigners Lyon to the national GSP stadium for the second leg of their last sixteen tie. History was already written getting this far but this night offered the chance to create even more and consolidate the club's place in a wonderful story of achievement. APOEL trailed 1-0 from the first leg but that deficit was closed within ten minutes in Nicosia. The hosts would go on to hold their nerve to emerge victorious on penalties with veteran keeper Dionisios Chiotis saving two Lyon penalties. APOEL on this night became the first Cypriot team to reach the quarter-finals of any European competition and of course this being the biggest of them all, the champions league.

Fast forward five years and APOEL are preparing for a Europa league last sixteen tie with Belgian powerhouse Anderlecht. Two games away from another quarter-final appearance. Sure it may not be the champions league but for APOEL to reach this far is a fantastic achievement. It has been a long journey for the club who started in the champions league qualifiers back in July.

Not many will have foreseen such a run being put together after they drew a blank in Oswestry, England against The New Saints. A 3-0 win in the home leg ensured progression but the Welsh team made them work for it for long periods. Norway's Rosenborg were next up and another first leg slip, a 2-1 defeat in Trondheim. Home conditions and an epic finale in the second leg saw APOEL fire three past Rosenborg in stoppage time. That late drama set up a play off round tie with another Scandinavian opponent in FC København. Yet again they failed to win the first leg, losing 1-0 and the Danes held out for a draw in Cyprus to edge through leaving APOEL with the Europa league.

The group that featured Astana, BSC Young Boys and the headline draw of Olympiacos provided an opportunity. An opportunity that was grasped with both hands. Victories over Olympiacos home and away provided the platform to the Cypriots topping the group by four points.

The first knockout round beckoned and it provided a massive stern test against Athletic Bilbao. A monumental effort would be required to get past the Basques. A thrilling first leg ended with a 3-2 reverse but the key positive was the pair of away goals scored by Giorgios Efrem and Yannis Gianniotas. Nobody could've foresaw the second leg events. APOEL stunningly saw off the seasoned Bilbao 2-0 in Cyprus as a Pieros Sotiriou volley and a Gianniotas penalty gave them a first ever victory over Spanish opponents in fifteen attempts.

A European run from England-Norway-Denmark-Greece-Kazakhstan-Switzerland and Spain sees the next stop in Belgium. It won't be easy against Anderlecht and they will be without their talisman Sotiriou as he was sent-off in that win over Bilbao.

Should they get through Anderlecht, APOEL will be the only Cypriot club
to make two European quarter-finals. Their European run has coinsided with their quest for a domestic double. Currently leading the Cypriot first division as it enters the split, APOEL are also still involved in the cup which sees them face AEL Limassol over two legs next month. These next few weeks could see then break new ground on a European scale while also reaffirming their domestic dominance.