Everything has to end sometime

This past weekend three long standing periods of domination were finally put to bed. One by one over the weekend they fell from Albania to Gibraltar via Croatia. A sense of new life being pumped into these leagues as seen with the celebrations after the final whistles blew. In the cases of Kukesi and Rijeka it was first ever league titles, for Europa FC first title in a lifetime.

Albania:

Kukësi celebrate their maiden championship

source: rtsh.al

On Saturday FK Kukësi dethroned champions for the past six seasons Skënderbeu Korçë. They secured it with a 2-0 home win over the outgoing champions with a brace from Croatian striker Pero Pejić. Those goals took his tally to twenty-six for the still unbeaten champions with one round remaining. The striker signed last summer from Esteghlal of Iran and has now won the Albanian title with three different sides (Kukësi, Skënderbeu Korçë and Dinamo Tirana).
Another key in the success was Enea Koliqi who kept twenty clean sheets along the way. For manager Ernest Gjoka it capped off a terrific first season in charge. For perspective, Kukësi last season were beaten nine times and finished third, sixteen points off the title.

Croatia:

Rijeka are Croatian champions

source: CROPIX

One of Europe's long standing periods of dominance is over after Rijeka maintained their superiority this season with a 4-0 dismantling of Cibalia sparking wild celebrations in the coastal city. The result ended any hope of Dinamo Zagreb extending their league streak to twelve and ensured a first ever league title for Rijeka. It caps a magnificent spell in charge for manager Matjaž Kek, under his stewardship has seen the club win the Croatian Cup and Super Cup along with two Europa League group stage appearances.
A storming run to the title was made possible with four players hitting double figures, Franko Andrijšević (fifteen goals), Alexander Gorgan (twelve goals), Roman Bezjak (eleven goals) and Mario Gavranović (eleven goals).

Gibraltar:

Europa FC celebrate their triumph

source: C Correa Photography

Lincoln Red Imps' run of fourteen consecutive titles is over after Europa FC took full advantage of the opportunity presented to them. A 2-2 draw between Lincoln and Mons Calpe a fortnight ago swung the title race back into Europa FC's hands and they made no mistake, winning both remaining games. It was their first title since 1952 and their seventh overall. Their title victory denied Lincoln what would've been a European record of fifteen titles in succession.
A major contributor to the success was no doubt the thirty-goal haul from Kike Gómez but also both Guillermo Roldán and Liam Walker hit double figures with fifteen strikes each. Manager Juan Gallardo in his first season in charge delivered a fantastic title win that saw Europa FC beaten only twice in twenty seven league games.

FK Budućnost - An almighty collapse

In last week's post about title races I mentioned briefly how the title race in Montenegro had been reopened in recent weeks. I felt this warranted a post of it's own because of how it came to this stage of an open race, whereas only a few months ago FK Budućnost seemed to be pretty much nailed on for the title honours. 

FK Budućnost hail from the Montenegrin capital of Podgorica. Since the country's independence from Serbia in 2006, the club have won the league crown twice and have posted six runners-up placings. In the Yugoslav era the club reached the final of the Yugoslav cup in 1965 and 1977, losing on both occasions. Last season Budućnost lagged behind fellow capital side Mladost and last summer were a couple of spot kicks away from eliminating eventual Europa League quarter-finalists Genk. 

This season however is certainly worth talking about. At the beginning of the campaign Budućnost raced out of the traps with five wins from their opening five games. They wouldn't taste defeat until a 2-0 reverse at home to Rudar in October. Four wins from the next four league outings would extend their lead at the top of the table. A cup exit at the hands of Grbalj did put a dampener on the first half of the season however. A 3-0 win over Bokelj in the final game before the winter break got that cup disappointment out of their system. 

At the break Budućnost were eleven points clear of Mladost and seventeen ahead of FK Zeta and Sutjeska. Their record stood at played seventeen, won thirteen, drawn three and just one defeat. Manager Miodrag Vukotić seemingly guiding his side to a third league title. 

However there was a sensational collapse in the wings. The first two games back after the break yielded four points against Zeta and Sutjeska. However that victory over Sutjeska would be their only victory for two months and to date the team have only recorded two since.

Budućnost's record since the break has been a stark contrast to their record before the break. Played fourteen, won three, drawn three and lost eight. Goalscoring has dried up and the defence has become extremely leaky. Before the break they conceded just seven in total, they have conceded seventeen in the games after the break.

Radomir Đalović hasn't replicated his autumn form

Foto: Luka Zeković / Vijesti

Top goalscorer remains Goran Vujović with eleven and despite the team's collapse he has remained on some sort of scoring trail. Vujović has probably been the only player to retain some sort of form resembling the first half of the season. Radomir Đalović in total has ten league goals with just three coming after the break. Midfielder Milivoje Raičević has nine goals to his name, however he hasn't scored since December before the break. 

Amazingly their collapse hasn't nudged them off the summit, yet. Sutjeska sit two points behind them having made up fifteen of the seventeen point gap that existed between the two at the break. FK Zeta are a further point behind in third but would actually be two points clear but for a six point deduction for two separate cases of disciplinary breaches. 

Budućnost have two games remaining to crawl over the line but for a side that require two victories to guarantee the title but have only won three games since the new year, nothing is assured in Montenegro.

Grand Stand finishes around Europe

By now approaching mid-May many European leagues have already crowned their champions. However for some, there is some quite enthralling title races still to reach their conclusion. By enthralling, I mean enthralling, more than two sides going for the title with little between them.

Poland:

Jagiellonia are gunning for a first ever league title
source: Maciej Gilewski 

We'll start with Europe's closest title race in the Ekstraklasa. Six rounds of games still remain with the final round not scheduled until the beginning of June but it does translate into a month of knife edge action. A single point is all that separates the four title contenders with Jagiellonia Białystok lead Lech Poznań on the head-to-head record. Such is the compact nature of the league this season it could well be decided on the head-to-head. 
Two of the contenders, Jagiellonia Białystok and Lechia Gdańsk have never won the title which adds more suspense to this race. Defending champions Legia Warszawa, while in contention, are yet to reach the summit this season. Given that the league has split into two, the next few weeks are littered with head-to-head clashes between the contenders and this is certainly one title race to keep a close eye on. 

Moldova:
Moldova's Divizia Națională reaches it's conclusion in the next fortnight with just three points separating the top four sides. The twist in the race however, is leaders Milsami have already played a game more than their rivals. Milsami face a nervous weekend of inactivity while all three of their title rivals face home fixtures. Any win for any of the contenders will knock Milsami off top spot but should all three of Dacia, Sheriff Tiraspol and Zaria win then the final weekend will see just one point separate all four. To add even more twists, Milsami will face Zaria on the final day with Sheriff and Dacia away at relegation threatened sides. 

Montenegro:
An absolute collapse in form from Budućnost in 2017 has opened the title door to FK Zeta, Mladost and Sutjeska, with all three sides now within three points of the stuttering capital side. Four rounds of games remain and given the slump from Budućnost, the title slipping out of grip cannot be ruled out. The leaders also face all the title hopefuls in their remaining fixtures. To put a perspective on the collapse, Budućnost held a twelve point lead at the winter break. This is a race worth keeping an eye on to see if Budućnost can avoid a sensational bottle-job. 

Albania:
Over the border in Albania, the Superliga has been a constant three horse race all season. With four rounds left to play just a solitary point is all that is between FK Kukësi, Partizani Tirana and Skënderbeu Korçë. Champions for the past six seasons, Skënderbeu Korçë haven't been able to make top spot their own this season with surprise package FK Kukësi remaining in front for much of the season by the narrowest of margins. This midweek sees a round of games pencilled in for decision and the remaining rounds will be crammed in before May 27th's finale which has Skënderbeu Korçë hosting Partizani in a potentially massively defining fixture. 

Romania:
Over in Romania just one round remains in the Liga I title race. Three sides, Viitorul Constanța, FCSB and Dinamo București are seperated by two points. All three face home games this coming weekend with Dinamo needing a very unlikely set of results to claim the title. Viitorul are gunning for a first ever league crown and FCSB are looking to claim a first title since the acronym of FCSB was adopted seemingly permanently earlier this year. On paper Viitorul have the toughest assignment against CFR Cluj with FCSB hosting Universitatea Craiova and Dinamo at home to Astra Giurgiu. 

Other notable mentions
Gibraltar:
Both Lincoln Red Imps and Europa FC have been nip and tuck in the league for the entire season. Both are separated by a point with two games remaining. Lincoln hold the slender advantage but face third placed St Joseph's in a potentially tricky game. Europa FC need a slip up from Lincoln in their final two games while they themselves need to win both of theirs. 

Hungary:
A tight finish is in store with Honvéd and Videoton level on points with three games of the campaign remaining. As luck would have it they both face each other on the final day of the season on May 27th. Honvéd are at home and chasing a first league title since 1992-93 while Videoton are hoping to claim a third ever league title. 

The decline of RCD Mallorca

A quick glance at the bottom half of the Segunda división and you will find a couple of teams that graced La Liga for decent spells such as Almería and Rayo Vallecano. Look closer and you'll find RCD Mallorca second from bottom in serious danger of going down. It wasn't always this way.

Hailing from the capital of the Balearic islands, Palma, RCD Mallorca have spent a total of twenty-seven seasons in the Spanish top flight. They are ranked eighteenth in the historical classification and have by and large been the island's leading club. Their decline to their current mire has been slow and painful.

The 1998-99 season remains the club's best ever in terms of achievement. Under the guidance of Argentine coach Héctor Cúper, the islanders were runners-up in the final edition of the UEFA cup winners cup while domestically they finished third for their highest ever placing. A Supercopa de España trophy the following season marked the start of what was to become a golden period for the club. Cúper had departed for Valencia at this stage and under Luís Aragonés in 2000-01, Mallorca again finished third in La Liga. Unlike in 1999 where they failed to negotiate a path to the champions league group stage, in 2001 they made no mistake. In a group containing Arsenal, Schalke and Panathinaikos they finished third but narrowly missing out on progression.

Another trophy wasn't long coming for the club. The 2002-03 campaign didn't end until late June but the long arduous season was well worth the effort when, now under the guidance of Gregorio Manzano, they beat Recreativo de Huelva 3-0 in the Copa del Rey final in Elche. Goals from Walter Pandiani and a brace from Samuel Eto'o securing Mallorca's finest hour.

Leading players such as Pandiani, Eto'o and Alberto Luque would be sold off in the seasons following that Copa success. This resulted in a relative doldrum period where comfortable mid-table placings were the norm. Players being sold off was a common theme until the 2009-10 season. A season that saw Mallorca heavily involved in a champions league tussle with Sevilla. A late dip in form allowed Sevilla to pip them to the fourth champions league spot by a solitary point. A few weeks after the heartbreak, Mallorca were banned from taking part in European competition by UEFA for financial irregularities. That 2009-10 campaign was to prove as good as it got.

Mid-table and relegation battles ensued for the following seasons until they fell through the relegation trap door in 2012-13 on the final day. A relegation that ended a two decade spell in the top division. There would be no bouncing straight back up and their three seasons down in the second tier have yielded almost identical finished of seventeenth, sixteenth and seventeenth. Such mediocrity saw highly promising Marco Asencio depart for Real Madrid.

The current campaign is in serious danger of Mallorca slipping further down the pyramid. At the time of writing they are second bottom, six points off safety with six games remaining. Instability in the dugout hasn't helped with three different managers taking the helm. The current incumbent, Fernando Navarro is facing a massive challenge to keep the club up in the next few weeks.

Relegation would be a disaster for the club. Segunda B doesn't have professional status and the attendances at the Iberostar Estadi would plummet even further in the third tier. For the optimistic Mallorca fans perhaps some solace can be taken from Tenerife's experience. The Canary Islanders suffered back-to-back relegations from La Liga to Segunda B but a bounce back into the second tier has seen them build slowly into a side current challenging for promotion into La Liga once more.

The story of RCD Mallorca in the past twenty years could have yet another twist in the next few weeks and relegation also opens the prospect of Mallorca facing local rivals Atlético Baleares competitively next season. Not a prospect Mallorca fans would've envisioned when beating Recreativo in the Copa del Rey in 2003.

How do newly promoted teams fare?

On Monday Brighton & Hove Albion rubberstamped their promotion to the Premier league. Their promotion has led to the annual questions and predictions of how will they fare next season. The cliche being that newly promoted teams always tend to struggle and go down. A perceived gulf between Premier league and football league in terms of finance is a major factor in how well or poor teams do. Brighton now have access to the cash bonanza that is the Premier league TV money. So just how do newly promoted teams fare in the season after promotion. For this I examined all the promotions in five European leagues going back to the 1991-92 season.

England
We'll start in England with the richest league in the world. Between 1991-92 and 2015-16 there were seventy-five promotions into the top flight. Of those seventy-five, thirty-three were relegated in their first season in the top division. Percentage-wise this translates to just under 45%. A fascinating figure given how pundits and experts usually predict doom and gloom for newly promoted clubs.
In the time period studied there has only been two occasions where none of the promoted clubs suffered relegation (2001-02 & 2011-12). While the 1997-98 season was the sole occasion where all promoted sides headed straight back down. Collectively forty-four percent is a fairly decent percentage for newly promoted clubs, further breaking down of the stats isn't pleasent reading for teams coming up via the play-offs however. Twenty-five promotions have come through this route and sixteen have resulted in relegation giving us a 64% going down rate.

France
Across the channel in France the figure of relegation after promotion is even more favourable. From 1991-92 to 2015-16 seventy-four promotions occured. Twenty-six of those ended in the agony of relegation, which leaves a 37% relegation rate.
In the time period France has yet to see a season where all promoted teams went down together. On the flip side there were five seasons (13-14, 05-06, 99-00, 94-95 & 91-92) where all promoted teams stayed clear of the trap door.
Going up as second tier champions in France greatly enhances your survival hopes. Of the twenty-five promotions in this category just seven went down which is just 28%.
However what is more astounding is that the third promoted side has been relegated 32% in the time period compared to 44% for the second promoted sides.

Germany
The Bundesliga's format over the time period saw the fewest number of promotions with sixty-nine. Twenty-four of which ended in relegation the following year. In the five leagues examined, Germany had the highest number of seasons where no promoted teams tasted relegation. A total of eight seasons (15-16, 09-10, 08-09, 06-07, 04-05, 97-98, 96-97 & 95-96). Only one season (92-93) saw all newly promoted sides go down.
Germany is also the only one of the five leagues in the time period where a newly promoted team went on to win the top division title. That was Kaiserslautern in 1997-98, a quite remarkable achievement. Kaiserslautern went up as second tier champions and only six of those were relegated in the time frame, a 24% relegation rate, the lowest of the five leagues.

Italy
Serie A had the most promotions in the time period with ninety-one. This was down to promoting four clubs each season from 91-92 until 03-04. Out of those promotions, thirty-three were relegated, for a relegation rate of just over 36%.
However an interesting observation from the statistics here is that going up as the second best team has the best chance of staying up. Just six in this category have been relegated which leaves a 24% relegation rate.
Serie A has had three seasons (07-08, 06-07 & 95-96) where none of the promoted clubs went down. Serie A has also not had a season in the time frame where all promoted teams went down. A special mention must go to 2005-06 where, due to league restructuring, there were six newly promoted teams, just one went down.
The best performance from a promoted team was Juventus' 3rd place in 2007-08.

Spain
La Liga had seventy-four promotions and just twenty-five of them resulted in relegation, for a 34% relegation rate. On seven ocassions (15-16, 13-14, 11-12, 00-01, 94-95, 92-93 & 91-92) all promoted clubs stayed up. 1996-97 was the only season that saw all promoted teams go down.
A pattern of fascination is that in the time period only four runners-up have relegated leaving an incredible relegation rate of just 16%, the lowest of any category in the five leagues.
In terms of best performing, that honour goes to Real Betis and their 3rd place in 1994-95.

Conclusion
The main point I wanted to prove here was that newly promoted teams do in actual fact have as good a chance as any of competing in the higher division. All of the claims such as 'they'll struggle as usual','they'll find the step up too difficult' etc, aren't really true. The statistics in a time period of twenty-five years shows that in all five leagues less than half of the promoted teams suffer relegation. The exact overall picture is one hundread forty-two relegations out of three hundread eighty-three promotions for a 37% relegation rate.
Statistically Spain has the best survival chances for newly promoted teams with the financial gap between bottom end La Liga and Segunda seemingly not insurmountable.
England has the worst survival chances at 44% but still enough to give hope. The reason for their high percentage is down to the massive gulf in wealth between Premier league and football league.
Germany was the only league of the five to remain in the same format throughout the time period. Their figure of 35% therefore represents an accurate rate. Italy's four up four down for more than a decade saw them with the most promotions. There might be a further format change in the pipeline given the very poor performance this season at the bottom.

Island teams hindered by location?

This past weekend Las Palmas won again at home with a 4-1 success over Real Betis. The result took Las Palmas onto thirty-eight points for the season. However things aren't as rosy when Las Palmas are away from the Canary islands. Of that thirty-eight points total, only six have come away from home. So are Las Palmas and other island clubs hindered by their location?

Las Palmas are the only island team competing in La Liga this season. The other big Canary island club, Tenerife, are challenging for promotion from Segunda. Tenerife haven't been in the top division since 2009-10 and since then have even spent time in the third tier. The Segunda this season also features Real Mallorca, although that might not be the case next season given the Palma club are struggling badly. No island team has ever won La Liga and Mallorca were the only one to qualify for the champions league back in 2001-02.

Over in Serie A it is all but mathematically confirmed that the island of Scilly will be without representation next season. Palermo's paltry total of fifteen points has them slipping into Serie B. Oddly however, Palermo have won twice as many points away from home this season with ten collected.

Barring a drastic combination of results, Sardinia's Cagliari will be hanging around the top division next season. They have won twice as many points at home than on their travels this campaign. Back in Scilly, this season could've featured two sides from the island had Trapani overcome Pescara last season. Trapani now find themselves engulfed in a relegation dogfight in Serie B.

Unless Corsica's SC Bastia can avoid slipping through the Ligue 1 relegation trap door this season, next season will be the first since 2010-11 that there will be no Corsican involvement in Ligue 1. Of Bastia's twenty-eight points, ten have come away from the Mediteranean island. Arch-rivals AC Ajaccio are mid-table in Ligue 2 with the majority of their thirty-nine points coming at home. The tiny Gazélac Ajaccio are also in mid-table after their debut top flight campaign last season.

The Portuguese archipelago of Madeira last season had three top division clubs. Next season it could very well be just one. Nacional currently occupy seventeeth place in the Superliga. There is no significant difference in their home and away records this season. Funchal rivals Maritímo however do have a significant difference. Their home record has yielded more than twice as many points than on their travels. Such a record sees them sitting in sixth.
União da Madeira find themselves fourth in the segunda and like Maritímo there is a twenty point difference in favour of their home record.
The only Azores side in Portugal's top two divisions, Santa Clara have won twelve more points at home than on their travels. The club however last graced the top flight in 2002-03.

In Greece there aren't many island teams in the Super league. Historically it was usually OFI Crete and Ergotelis in the top division but just the one Crete team features in the top flight this season and that's Platanias. Their home record is almost twice as good as their away record which places them in seventh place. No Crete club has managed to win the national title.
The holiday island of Corfu has PAE Kerkyra competing in the top flight this season after promotion last term. The club was formed from a 2013 merger of AO Kerkyra and Kassiopi FC. Last season Lesbos club Kalloni were relegated from the Super league and this season look like taking the drop into the third tier. Crete clubs OFI and Chania also feature in the second tier with the latter battling the drop.

Island teams across Europe have tended to struggle. In fact only twice have island clubs managed to wrestle the title off the mainland in Europe with Cagliari in 1970 and IFK Mariehamn's title win last October in Finland's Veikkausliiga. The logical and simplistic conclusion is that their island location hinders the chances of success. There are a myriad of reasons why, one of which is money. In a lot of cases these teams spend more on travel costs than anyone else in their leagues. Money that mainland teams can spend on players. The travel expenditure also deprives money to keep star players at these clubs. For example Las Palmas couldn't afford local talent such as David Silva, Juan Carlos Valerón, Jesé Rodríguez, Mauro Icardi and Sandro Ramírez, who all left the island at young ages.

As we have also seen with some teams, their records on their travels are significantly poorer than their home records which translates to rarely higher than mid-table finishes. If the away records could be improved then perhaps these clubs could buck the struggle trend associated with island teams.

At least we'll be in the next one

The recent international window all but sealed the hopes of Qatar making their world cup debut in Russia next year. Sucessive 1-0 defeats to Iran and then Uzbekistan leaves the maroons bottom of their world cup group with a very remote opportunity of making the play-offs. Automatic qualification is mathematically beyond them after the latest results.

Their impending elimination will mean Qatar in 2022 will be the first world cup hosts to have never qualified prior to hosting. There was genuine hope in the country that they had a decent chance of making it to Russia. The ease of which they qualified through round three of the Asian world cup qualifiers only fuelled those hopes.

Three defeats from their opening three games in the final group stage was just making the task near on impossible to recover. Uruguayan Jorge Fossati was drafted in as manager at this stage to try and rescue a campaign that was unravelling at an alarming rate. A 1-0 win at home to Syria at least got them off the foot of the group. A 2-1 victory over an experimental Russia in a November friendly seemed to restore some confidence. A game that saw them fall behind to an early Aleksander Kokorin penalty was rescued when Boualem Khouki converted a penalty of his own. Karim Boudiaf's second half strike being enough after Kokoron missed a late penalty.

Two decent results that were undone by a largely frustrating 0-0 stalemate away in China. A result that suited neither side that were attempting to rescue fading world cup hopes. Since that November qualifier, two very underwhelming results in friendlies against Moldova and Azerbaijan followed. Then came this international window of two further defeats.

At the time of writing, Fossati is still in charge and in defence of the Uruguayan it was an uphill task to rescue the campaign after that nightmare start. If anything this campaign has only highlighted just how short the team is of making any inroads for qualification, under the current format. The positives for Qatar are that, in theory at least, qualification for future world cups get easier. January's announcement of a forty-eight team world cup from 2026 was good news for Asia and the likes of Qatar but a lot of work is still required to ensure the team is of the required standard to qualify.

How they go about obtaining that standard is anyone's guess. Their favoured approach of using naturalized players from the domestic league has thus far fallen terribly short. It is also a strategy heavily critised by local media and fans with a 'lack of passion' being branded about recently.

The money the country has poured into youth developement programmes is yet to unearth a wealth of talent, if you excuse the pun. Young attacker Akram Afif is the first Qatari to play in La Liga with Sporting Gijón but with their home world cup less than six years away, a few more players like Afif will need to be developed.

Authorities in Qatar and the football association will be looking to make an impact at their home world cup but the present campaign doesn't bode well for those plans. Drawing with China at this moment in time is where Qatar are at in Asia. Their failure to qualify for 2018 could be a blessing in disguise to give them a reality check but at least they'll be at the next one.