League of Ireland clubs Bray Wanderers and Sligo Rovers took part in the Scottish challenge cup last weekend as debut guest teams. Bray Wanderers were drawn away to Scottish League Two side Elgin City while Sligo Rovers hosted Championship side Falkirk. It presented an opportunity for both clubs to pit themselves against sides they wouldn't ordinarily get the chance to play in a competitive fixture.
I'm reluctant to use one off games as a means to come to conclusions to the relative strengths and weaknesses of certain leagues over others but these games did provide us at least some glimpse into how our sides could fare in a competitive fixture against Scottish clubs. Irish sides haven't played a competitive fixture against a Scottish opponent in over ten years with Derry City's thumping aggregate victory over Gretna, who were at the time Division 2 (3rd tier champions), in the UEFA cup.
Last year I did a blog post on how I thought Irish sides would fare in the Scottish system, of course all hypothetical but to summarize I thought basically only the top two in Ireland would do reasonably well in the top division with the rest of our Premier division sides being of Scottish championship standard and below.
Embarrassment in Borough Briggs:
The first game last Saturday kicked off at 3pm with Bray Wanderers making the trip north to Elgin City. On paper and in the odds Bray were favorites here. The Wanderers had started the season very well but their campaign has now meandered into a what could've been season after the fiasco of financial problems in July. Elgin City meanwhile were third in League Two after four games. The first half came and went with both sides level at 0-0 by the interval. A lightning start to the second forty-five saw Elgin take the lead through Chris Dodd and that breakthrough forced Bray to go chasing a route back into the game. Elgin would add a second in stoppage time as Bray became desperate with Jordan Allen sticking the final nail into Bray's debut adventure. 2-0 the final score and the reaction was that of embarrassment from a Bray and League of Ireland point of view.
Sligo's unbeaten run ended:
Next up at 7:45pm was Sligo hosting Falkirk. Sligo struggling in the relegation battle albeit unbeaten in six games and Falkirk on the back of a disastrous start to their season lying in ninth. This on paper was a much tougher assignment for Sligo than Bray had faced. Falkirk's average home crowd last season was just over 5,000, the third highest in the division behind Hibernian and Dundee United. Sligo's meanwhile was just over 1,700 in 2016 which was the fourth highest in Ireland. So going on figures such as those, Falkirk budget wise were much stronger.
On the game it took the Scottish visitors just nine minutes to make the breakthrough with Nathan Austin finishing after a slip in the Sligo defense. Seamus Sharkey leveled nine minutes later through a header from a corner. However Falkirk had one more sting though and retook the lead just before the half-hour mark with James Craigen slotting home. Sligo couldn't force another equalizer and like Bray before them exit the competition before they had a chance to get momentum together.
Verdict:
My thoughts before both clubs entered was that both were capable of going deep into this competition. With both teams knocked out in the debut campaign it doesn't look particularly good on the league that a team from the Scottish fourth tier could knock a top five side out while also keeping a clean sheet. Falkirk were always going to be a tough draw considering the other teams that Sligo could've been drawn against. The fact that the Sligo Falkirk game was a close fought battle is a little bit better from the League of Ireland point of view but overall this adventure has not been good.
Critics will point that Sligo are engulfed in a relegation battle and that this competition was a distraction will no doubt get an airing but Bray barring an incredible series of results will be safe come October and had the easier of the ties on paper ought to have looked for a decent run in this competition.
As I've mentioned earlier it's hard to draw conclusions on such a small sample size such as two games last weekend. I find the aspect of the SPFL including foreign sides into this competition interesting as this may become more and more the norm in the changing European footballing landscape in the coming years. What we can conclude after two games in this competition is that improvement is very much needed!.
Wednesday, 6 September 2017
Wednesday, 16 August 2017
Who will be next?
Azeri champions Qarabağ this week recorded a 1-0 first leg victory over FC København in the play-off round of the champions league. Should they see the job through next week in the Danish capital they will become the first Azeri club to ever compete in the champions league group stage since it was introduced with the rebranding of the competition in the early 1990s.
This got me thinking however. Assuming Qarabağ qualify next week there will then be twenty two nations left in the UEFA which have never made the lucrative group stage. They are as follows:
This got me thinking however. Assuming Qarabağ qualify next week there will then be twenty two nations left in the UEFA which have never made the lucrative group stage. They are as follows:
- Albania
- Andorra
- Armenia
- Bosnia-Herzegovina
- Estonia
- Faroe Islands
- Georgia
- Gibraltar
- Iceland
- Kosovo
- Latvia
- Lithuania
- Luxembourg
- Macedonia
- Malta
- Moldova
- Montenegro
- Northern Ireland
- Republic of Ireland
- San Marino
- Wales
The missing nation is Liechtenstein but in their case they don't have a league and play in the Swiss league system so never participate in the champions league. That leaves twenty one nations who haven't reached the promised land of the riches that is the group stage of the champions league. So my thought was, who will be the first of these to make the breakthrough?
Change to the access list from 2018:
So we'll start off by addressing the elephant in the room which is the rejig in the access list from 2018 onwards. UEFA's announcement last August that the top four nations in the co-efficient table will take half the thirty-two group stage spots will have a significant impact on this as the few links online about the format change seems to suggest that the champions route will be cut from five qualifying teams to four.
The champions route is the route for as the title suggests league champions only. This is the route the likes of Legia Warszawa, Celtic, Astana and APOEL Nicosia have qualified for the group stage from. The rumored cut from five to four makes the route even more competitive and that extra bit harder for a lot of nations on this list to make a breakthrough. So with that in mind and going off the relatively small sources online it's not looking good for these nations and their champions league dreams.
Process of elimination:
I'll eliminate the nations that really don't have a hope of ever getting a team into the group stage. They are Andorra, Faroe Islands, Gibraltar, Malta and San Marino. The leagues in these countries are far to small to muster a challenge. They may produce teams that can grab one off results and at best progress one or two rounds in either competition but as far the champions league is concerned none of these will be making any inroads. Northern Ireland is another that won't be making any appearance in the group stage any time soon. Like the aforementioned countries they best they seem to muster is the odd decent result here and there. Kosovo is only starting it's journey and it's too early to make any great detailed assumption but their showings this year point to a lot of work needed.
The awkward opponents:
You can throw in Estonia, Luxembourg, Armenia, Wales and Lithuania into this. We have seen this year with Lithuania that they had a fantastic showing with Suduva still in the play-off round of the Europa league. However their champions league interest ended with Žalgiris Vilnius making Ludogorets Razgrad earn progression over two legs. Estonia is very hot and cold with results, they tend to progress a round or two rounds some years and fall miserably short at the first hurdle in other years. Wales have The New Saints annually qualifying for the qualifiers and are due a lucky draw in the second qualifying round to make Europa league inroads.
Luxembourg for a nation of their size punch well above themselves. Obviously they hit headlines this year with Progrés Niederkorn putting Rangers out of the Europa league but collectively Luxembourg clubs have mustered some fine results down the years. Armenia is too much of a basket case of a league to sustain a strong enough challenge for a group stage berth. Bosnia-Herzegovina always seem to get horrible draws in the champions league preventing any progress but do on occasions make their opponents work for progression.
The dark horses:
Iceland are in this category for good reason. Like the national team the club scene has improved in the past ten years. Clubs are progressing a round more often than not and that is good progress from where the nation was years ago. KR Reykjavík regularly make the second qualifying round of the Europa league but it's the champions league where progress is slowly coming to fruition. FH struck lucky to get Faroese side Víkingur in the second qualifying round this year and after overcoming them they now take on Sporting Braga in the Europa league having narrowly lost out to Maribor.
Montenegro make up the other half of this category based on the progress they have made since independence from Serbia in 2006. Slowly their sides have been making life tough for bigger clubs in Europe and being based in a region that regularly produces fine footballers makes them a dark horse for me.
The contenders:
So now we have the contenders. The nations on the list that I think have the best chances of breaking their Champions league duct. Now there may be a surprise or two in this category but I will outline my reasons as to why they merit inclusion:
Albania:
Albania have made serious inroads in recent years albeit just the one club in Skënderbeu Korçë. In 2015 the club reached the play-off round of the champions league. However the Croatian powerhouse of Dinamo Zagreb proved too strong for the Albanians to break into the group stage, going out 6-2 on aggregate. It did present them with the reward of Albania's first Europa league group stage entrant which they would go on to finish bottom of the group despite a 3-0 win over Sporting club de Portugal.
This year Skënderbeu Korçë are in the Europa league play-off round continuing their progress. Since that 2015 shot, both Partizani Tirana and Kukësi have fallen at short of the play-off round. Partizani going out in the third round to Salzburg and Kukësi going out in the second round on away goals to Sheriff Tiraspol. However the threat is there I feel.
Georgia:
This might be an odd inclusion but hear me out on this one. Georgia is home to Dinamo Tbilisi who have a Cup winners cup title to their name from days gone by. Dinamo are Georgia's best bet for making the breakthrough in the champions league. In fact they were agonizingly close to doing so in 1998.
Dinamo were drawn with Athletic Bilbao in the final qualifying round in 1998 and took a first leg 2-1 victory to Bilbao with them. A close fought game saw Bilbao edge their way through on away goals as they won 1-0 in San Mamés to the disappointment of the Georgians. Dinamo have played a total of 153 games in European competition so the vast experience is there and with the league now switched around to a summer league they will be approaching future qualifiers match sharp and for me that makes them contenders.
As for other Georgian sides, the next club in terms of European experience is Torpedo Kutaisi. The best they have mustered is second qualifying round appearances in 2001 and 2002. They need stability as this year was the first year they played in Europe for four years. In terms of experience the next two clubs are WIT Georgia and Zestafoni. WIT are in the second tier and Zestafoni are outside the league system.
Latvia:
The Baltic nation have twice come close to breaking through. Ventspils in 2009 reached the inaugural play-off round going out to Swiss side FC Zurich. That, like Albania in 2015, was enough to reach the Europa league group stage. Ventspils finished bottom of the group but did muster three draws.
Ten years earlier Skonto Riga were undone in their quest by a fifteen minute surge from Chelsea at the end of the first leg in the third qualifying round. Skonto went into the 75th minute at Stamford bridge level at 0-0 before goals from Celestine Babayaro, Gustavo Poyet and Chris Sutton knocked the stuffing out of the Latvian challenge. A second leg 0-0 draw in Riga pointed to a what might have been moment for the then Latvian powerhouse.
Those experiences though quite some time ago, show the potential is there but what is holding Latvia back for me is the constant instability of regular match fixing scandals and financial crisis'.
Macedonia:
Macedonia this year has had an unprecedented two clubs remaining in Europe at the play-off round stage of both competitions. Although Shkëndija drew the short straw with AC Milan, Vardar the perennial power have Turkish side Fenerbahçe to get through for a first ever group stage appearance in either competition. It might be strange to put a nation in that has yet to have a team reach the Europa league group stage but the simple fact is Macedonia has had a couple of close encounters with the champions league group stage. None as close as possibly 2004 when Vardar shocked CSKA Moskva en route to a clash with Sparta Praha in the final qualifying round. Sparta edging through 5-4 on aggregate to prolong the Macedonian wait.
Rabotnički had a shot at the group stage two years later but their hopes ended with a 4-0 aggregate loss to Lille of France. While the Europa league group stage has been elusive, Macedonia have had five play-off or final qualifying round appearances with a group stage berth on the line. Rabotnički coming closest in 2007 and 2015 losing narrowly to Bolton and Rubin Kazan respectively. They are certainly knocking on the door and Vardar this year were very close to ending the group stage exile but came up short against FC København in the third qualifying round.
Moldova:
Moldova have probably of these nations been the closest to breaking through. They were a goal and ten agonizing minutes away from the champions league group stage in 1999. Zimbru had dispatched both St Patrick's Athletic and Dinamo Tbilisi en route to the third and final qualifying round in 1999-00. Dutch side PSV Eindhoven stood in the way of history for the Moldovans. A first leg stalemate set up a dramatic night in Eindhoven. With ten minutes to play Luc Nilis fired a free-kick past Denis Romanenco before Andre Ooijer headed home a corner with three minutes to play as Zimbru chased the away goal that would've put them into the lucrative group stage.
Since that near miss Moldova have had Sheriff Tiraspol rise as the powerhouse. Sheriff have made made the Europa league group stage thrice with two play-off round champions league appearances, both lost comprehensively. Sheriff play Legia Warszawa over two legs this month for another shot at the Europa league group stage but they hold Moldova's biggest hope for the champions league group stage in the next few years.
Republic of Ireland:
Ireland have had two opportunities to breakthrough. The first featured arguably the greatest result an Irish side has ever achieved in Europe when Shelbourne drew 0-0 with Deportivo La Coruna in 2004. Shels kept the Galicians, nicknamed Super Depor in this era, out for a full hour of the second leg before two goals from Víctor and a Pandiani free-kick ended the dream.
Twelve years would pass before an Irish side would grace the equivalent of the same stage. Dundalk in 2016 had shocked BATE Borisov in the third qualifying round to set up a play-off tie with Legia Warszawa. A 2-0 defeat in Dublin which included the concession of a silly stoppage time goal gave the Poles the advantage for the second leg. However Legia showed extreme nerves especially when Robbie Benson halved the advantage in the first half with a thunder strike. Legia eventually leveled on the night but Dundalk had chances to nick the tie.
Ireland have had two Europa league group stage appearances with Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk as a consequence of that near miss. It's often labelled the impossible dream in Irish football but having two close encounters does show potential that it could end some day.
Verdict:
It's tough to decide which nation will breakthrough first as luck of the draw plays a big role in how far teams can get in a certain year. However I'll put my neck on the line and put forward Georgia just ahead of Ireland. The reason for this is that I think Dinamo Tbilisi have the greatest potential of the teams playing in all these nations. When looking at how across the border in Azerbaijan they have transformed from also ran to contenders in roughly ten-fifteen years I feel it isn't impossible to think that Georgia could take a leaf out of that blueprint.
The awkward opponents:
You can throw in Estonia, Luxembourg, Armenia, Wales and Lithuania into this. We have seen this year with Lithuania that they had a fantastic showing with Suduva still in the play-off round of the Europa league. However their champions league interest ended with Žalgiris Vilnius making Ludogorets Razgrad earn progression over two legs. Estonia is very hot and cold with results, they tend to progress a round or two rounds some years and fall miserably short at the first hurdle in other years. Wales have The New Saints annually qualifying for the qualifiers and are due a lucky draw in the second qualifying round to make Europa league inroads.
Luxembourg for a nation of their size punch well above themselves. Obviously they hit headlines this year with Progrés Niederkorn putting Rangers out of the Europa league but collectively Luxembourg clubs have mustered some fine results down the years. Armenia is too much of a basket case of a league to sustain a strong enough challenge for a group stage berth. Bosnia-Herzegovina always seem to get horrible draws in the champions league preventing any progress but do on occasions make their opponents work for progression.
The dark horses:
Iceland are in this category for good reason. Like the national team the club scene has improved in the past ten years. Clubs are progressing a round more often than not and that is good progress from where the nation was years ago. KR Reykjavík regularly make the second qualifying round of the Europa league but it's the champions league where progress is slowly coming to fruition. FH struck lucky to get Faroese side Víkingur in the second qualifying round this year and after overcoming them they now take on Sporting Braga in the Europa league having narrowly lost out to Maribor.
Montenegro make up the other half of this category based on the progress they have made since independence from Serbia in 2006. Slowly their sides have been making life tough for bigger clubs in Europe and being based in a region that regularly produces fine footballers makes them a dark horse for me.
The contenders:
So now we have the contenders. The nations on the list that I think have the best chances of breaking their Champions league duct. Now there may be a surprise or two in this category but I will outline my reasons as to why they merit inclusion:
Albania:
Albania have made serious inroads in recent years albeit just the one club in Skënderbeu Korçë. In 2015 the club reached the play-off round of the champions league. However the Croatian powerhouse of Dinamo Zagreb proved too strong for the Albanians to break into the group stage, going out 6-2 on aggregate. It did present them with the reward of Albania's first Europa league group stage entrant which they would go on to finish bottom of the group despite a 3-0 win over Sporting club de Portugal.
This year Skënderbeu Korçë are in the Europa league play-off round continuing their progress. Since that 2015 shot, both Partizani Tirana and Kukësi have fallen at short of the play-off round. Partizani going out in the third round to Salzburg and Kukësi going out in the second round on away goals to Sheriff Tiraspol. However the threat is there I feel.
Georgia:
This might be an odd inclusion but hear me out on this one. Georgia is home to Dinamo Tbilisi who have a Cup winners cup title to their name from days gone by. Dinamo are Georgia's best bet for making the breakthrough in the champions league. In fact they were agonizingly close to doing so in 1998.
Dinamo were drawn with Athletic Bilbao in the final qualifying round in 1998 and took a first leg 2-1 victory to Bilbao with them. A close fought game saw Bilbao edge their way through on away goals as they won 1-0 in San Mamés to the disappointment of the Georgians. Dinamo have played a total of 153 games in European competition so the vast experience is there and with the league now switched around to a summer league they will be approaching future qualifiers match sharp and for me that makes them contenders.
As for other Georgian sides, the next club in terms of European experience is Torpedo Kutaisi. The best they have mustered is second qualifying round appearances in 2001 and 2002. They need stability as this year was the first year they played in Europe for four years. In terms of experience the next two clubs are WIT Georgia and Zestafoni. WIT are in the second tier and Zestafoni are outside the league system.
Latvia:
The Baltic nation have twice come close to breaking through. Ventspils in 2009 reached the inaugural play-off round going out to Swiss side FC Zurich. That, like Albania in 2015, was enough to reach the Europa league group stage. Ventspils finished bottom of the group but did muster three draws.
Ten years earlier Skonto Riga were undone in their quest by a fifteen minute surge from Chelsea at the end of the first leg in the third qualifying round. Skonto went into the 75th minute at Stamford bridge level at 0-0 before goals from Celestine Babayaro, Gustavo Poyet and Chris Sutton knocked the stuffing out of the Latvian challenge. A second leg 0-0 draw in Riga pointed to a what might have been moment for the then Latvian powerhouse.
Those experiences though quite some time ago, show the potential is there but what is holding Latvia back for me is the constant instability of regular match fixing scandals and financial crisis'.
Macedonia:
Macedonia this year has had an unprecedented two clubs remaining in Europe at the play-off round stage of both competitions. Although Shkëndija drew the short straw with AC Milan, Vardar the perennial power have Turkish side Fenerbahçe to get through for a first ever group stage appearance in either competition. It might be strange to put a nation in that has yet to have a team reach the Europa league group stage but the simple fact is Macedonia has had a couple of close encounters with the champions league group stage. None as close as possibly 2004 when Vardar shocked CSKA Moskva en route to a clash with Sparta Praha in the final qualifying round. Sparta edging through 5-4 on aggregate to prolong the Macedonian wait.
Rabotnički had a shot at the group stage two years later but their hopes ended with a 4-0 aggregate loss to Lille of France. While the Europa league group stage has been elusive, Macedonia have had five play-off or final qualifying round appearances with a group stage berth on the line. Rabotnički coming closest in 2007 and 2015 losing narrowly to Bolton and Rubin Kazan respectively. They are certainly knocking on the door and Vardar this year were very close to ending the group stage exile but came up short against FC København in the third qualifying round.
Moldova:
Moldova have probably of these nations been the closest to breaking through. They were a goal and ten agonizing minutes away from the champions league group stage in 1999. Zimbru had dispatched both St Patrick's Athletic and Dinamo Tbilisi en route to the third and final qualifying round in 1999-00. Dutch side PSV Eindhoven stood in the way of history for the Moldovans. A first leg stalemate set up a dramatic night in Eindhoven. With ten minutes to play Luc Nilis fired a free-kick past Denis Romanenco before Andre Ooijer headed home a corner with three minutes to play as Zimbru chased the away goal that would've put them into the lucrative group stage.
Since that near miss Moldova have had Sheriff Tiraspol rise as the powerhouse. Sheriff have made made the Europa league group stage thrice with two play-off round champions league appearances, both lost comprehensively. Sheriff play Legia Warszawa over two legs this month for another shot at the Europa league group stage but they hold Moldova's biggest hope for the champions league group stage in the next few years.
Republic of Ireland:
Ireland have had two opportunities to breakthrough. The first featured arguably the greatest result an Irish side has ever achieved in Europe when Shelbourne drew 0-0 with Deportivo La Coruna in 2004. Shels kept the Galicians, nicknamed Super Depor in this era, out for a full hour of the second leg before two goals from Víctor and a Pandiani free-kick ended the dream.
Twelve years would pass before an Irish side would grace the equivalent of the same stage. Dundalk in 2016 had shocked BATE Borisov in the third qualifying round to set up a play-off tie with Legia Warszawa. A 2-0 defeat in Dublin which included the concession of a silly stoppage time goal gave the Poles the advantage for the second leg. However Legia showed extreme nerves especially when Robbie Benson halved the advantage in the first half with a thunder strike. Legia eventually leveled on the night but Dundalk had chances to nick the tie.
Ireland have had two Europa league group stage appearances with Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk as a consequence of that near miss. It's often labelled the impossible dream in Irish football but having two close encounters does show potential that it could end some day.
Verdict:
It's tough to decide which nation will breakthrough first as luck of the draw plays a big role in how far teams can get in a certain year. However I'll put my neck on the line and put forward Georgia just ahead of Ireland. The reason for this is that I think Dinamo Tbilisi have the greatest potential of the teams playing in all these nations. When looking at how across the border in Azerbaijan they have transformed from also ran to contenders in roughly ten-fifteen years I feel it isn't impossible to think that Georgia could take a leaf out of that blueprint.
Wednesday, 2 August 2017
A mismatch in every sense
The ongoing transfer saga of Neymar from Barcelona to Paris Saint-Germain for twice the world record transfer fee is taking Paris Saint-Germain to new eye watering levels of spending. It's no secret that Paris Saint-Germain are being back heavily by Qatar in the pursuit of champions league glory but the scale of this transfer really has to be stated in its absurdity.
While the ultimate prize for PSG in continental glory, domestically their budget has enabled them to become an absolute monster that dwarfs everybody else. It's when you see these kind of transfers that PSG are making that you have to acknowledge how amazing a job Leonardo Jardim did with Monaco last season to finish ahead of PSG and nab the Lique 1 title. A special mention must also go to Lucien Favre at Nice, who operated at a much smaller budget even compared to Monaco's let alone PSG's. Favre had managed to keep Nice in the Lique 1 title race last season until around March time when injuries derailed their ambitions.
The title race last season was surprisingly entertaining with the three teams going for it before Monaco outscored everyone with an exciting young squad. However the events of this summer have seen that young exciting squad at Monaco being shredded and there is still enough time in the window for further players to leave. Nice are unlikely to match last season's incredible highs with the added pressure of champions league games to juggle with a thin squad. Lyon have lost their talisman in Alexandre Lacazette and while ordinarily Marseille would be spending big money in French terms it's dwarfed by what is going on in the capital. It all points to a PSG procession to the title.
PSG are just operating in a completely different stratosphere to the rest of the league. The opening day of the season this coming weekend could potentially see one of the biggest mismatches take place, certainly in French circles, and arguably anywhere in Europe. PSG host newly promoted Amiens SC. Amiens SC will be competing in the French top flight for the first time in their history and it was obtained in the most dramatic of circumstances last season. A last minute goal away to Reims ensured Amiens finished third in Lique 2 to ensure promotion in a crazy final day where as many as six teams harboured promotion hopes.
Amiens only two seasons ago were playing in the National (third tier). Their rise to the top division for the first time sees them pitted against the might of PSG in their first game. Amiens haven't spent a dime on players so far this summer. Seven have signed as free transfers, one on loan and one promoted from the B team. They have lost Aboubakar Kamara, scorer of eleven goals in Lique 2 last season to Fulham for £5 million.
According to transfermarkt, the website database on everything transfers the world over, the total market value of Amiens entire squad is £12.28 million, PSG's is £411.95 million, and that is before Neymar pitches up at the Parc de Princes. When he does complete the transfer it will according to the site's market value for Neymar bring PSG up to £496.95 million, astonishingly over forty times the worth of Amiens. Such a gap between two teams playing in the same league is unprecedented even in this era of mind numbing transfer fees.
I feel this warrants a lengthy post in itself but a quick glance at other leagues around Europe show various gaps between the top teams and bottom teams in the respective leagues. Across the channel in England the market value of the highest team is Manchester City with £544 million, the lowest is newly promoted Huddersfield with a total valuation of £43.99 million, some twelve times the difference.
In Spain, Barcelona have the highest valued squad with £664.28 million (including Neymar) with Girona being the lowest at £21.5 million for just over thirty times the difference between the two. Taking Neymar's valuation out sees this reduced to just under twenty-seven times the valuation between the two Catalan based clubs.
The Bundesliga unsurprisingly has Bayern Munich with the highest valued squad at £512.89 million which is just under fifteen times that of Hannover 96's valuation (£34.51m). Italy's Serie A sees Juventus (£437.92m) with twenty one times the valuation of Crotone (£20.44m).
No other league in Europe can match the valuation gap between the top and bottom sides. Even predominantly one team leagues such as Scotland, Greece, Belarus and Croatia have gaps smaller than in France between two teams at opposite ends of the valuation tables. It may come as no shock that the gap between the top teams and the bottom teams in the major leagues at least is quite high but this example in France is a sign of just how absurd the gaps are becoming. Football is increasingly becoming a closed shop at the top end, in fact it has been for years.
While the ultimate prize for PSG in continental glory, domestically their budget has enabled them to become an absolute monster that dwarfs everybody else. It's when you see these kind of transfers that PSG are making that you have to acknowledge how amazing a job Leonardo Jardim did with Monaco last season to finish ahead of PSG and nab the Lique 1 title. A special mention must also go to Lucien Favre at Nice, who operated at a much smaller budget even compared to Monaco's let alone PSG's. Favre had managed to keep Nice in the Lique 1 title race last season until around March time when injuries derailed their ambitions.
The title race last season was surprisingly entertaining with the three teams going for it before Monaco outscored everyone with an exciting young squad. However the events of this summer have seen that young exciting squad at Monaco being shredded and there is still enough time in the window for further players to leave. Nice are unlikely to match last season's incredible highs with the added pressure of champions league games to juggle with a thin squad. Lyon have lost their talisman in Alexandre Lacazette and while ordinarily Marseille would be spending big money in French terms it's dwarfed by what is going on in the capital. It all points to a PSG procession to the title.
PSG are just operating in a completely different stratosphere to the rest of the league. The opening day of the season this coming weekend could potentially see one of the biggest mismatches take place, certainly in French circles, and arguably anywhere in Europe. PSG host newly promoted Amiens SC. Amiens SC will be competing in the French top flight for the first time in their history and it was obtained in the most dramatic of circumstances last season. A last minute goal away to Reims ensured Amiens finished third in Lique 2 to ensure promotion in a crazy final day where as many as six teams harboured promotion hopes.
Amiens only two seasons ago were playing in the National (third tier). Their rise to the top division for the first time sees them pitted against the might of PSG in their first game. Amiens haven't spent a dime on players so far this summer. Seven have signed as free transfers, one on loan and one promoted from the B team. They have lost Aboubakar Kamara, scorer of eleven goals in Lique 2 last season to Fulham for £5 million.
According to transfermarkt, the website database on everything transfers the world over, the total market value of Amiens entire squad is £12.28 million, PSG's is £411.95 million, and that is before Neymar pitches up at the Parc de Princes. When he does complete the transfer it will according to the site's market value for Neymar bring PSG up to £496.95 million, astonishingly over forty times the worth of Amiens. Such a gap between two teams playing in the same league is unprecedented even in this era of mind numbing transfer fees.
I feel this warrants a lengthy post in itself but a quick glance at other leagues around Europe show various gaps between the top teams and bottom teams in the respective leagues. Across the channel in England the market value of the highest team is Manchester City with £544 million, the lowest is newly promoted Huddersfield with a total valuation of £43.99 million, some twelve times the difference.
In Spain, Barcelona have the highest valued squad with £664.28 million (including Neymar) with Girona being the lowest at £21.5 million for just over thirty times the difference between the two. Taking Neymar's valuation out sees this reduced to just under twenty-seven times the valuation between the two Catalan based clubs.
The Bundesliga unsurprisingly has Bayern Munich with the highest valued squad at £512.89 million which is just under fifteen times that of Hannover 96's valuation (£34.51m). Italy's Serie A sees Juventus (£437.92m) with twenty one times the valuation of Crotone (£20.44m).
No other league in Europe can match the valuation gap between the top and bottom sides. Even predominantly one team leagues such as Scotland, Greece, Belarus and Croatia have gaps smaller than in France between two teams at opposite ends of the valuation tables. It may come as no shock that the gap between the top teams and the bottom teams in the major leagues at least is quite high but this example in France is a sign of just how absurd the gaps are becoming. Football is increasingly becoming a closed shop at the top end, in fact it has been for years.
Friday, 28 July 2017
Summer football v Winter football
Last year I blogged about Georgia's decision to switch from the traditional autumn-spring campaign to a spring-autumn calendar. Georgia's decision to switch calendars meant it became the twelfth "summer" league in Europe.
Earlier this year Moldova made the same decision to switch to a summer schedule from 2018 onwards. The result of this is a concise transitional campaign crammed into the calendar before the year is out, similar to what Georgia did last year.
Georgia's Umaglesi liga was broken into two groups of seven teams. The objective for the new summer campaign was to have a rebranded league of ten teams. The format of the league saw a surprise league win for Samtredia for the first time while traditional powers Dinamo Tbilisi and the recently impressive Dila Gori missed out on Europe completely. Only Torpedo Kutaisi of the traditional powers qualified. The league concluded with play-offs and everything was done and dusted by mid December with the new rebranded Erovnuli liga beginning on March 4th.
The transitional campaign gave Samtredia a unique opportunity to gain a league title and champions league qualification.
The decision to switch calendars is obvious and that's to improve European results. Georgia and Moldova enter sides in early qualifying rounds of European competition and clubs head into these games out of season lacking match fitness. From Moldova only Sheriff Tiraspol has ever reached the group stage of either the Champions league or Europa league while for Georgia only Dinamo Tbilisi have made the group stage once which was the UEFA cup.
For Moldova this year the league campaign ended on May 30th with the so called gold match to decide the league title which was won by Sheriff Tiraspol who then face Kukësi in the champions league on July 12th. For the Europa league entrants the league season ended on May 21st with the first European games played on June 29th.
Georgia this year were without their traditional power of Dinamo Tbilisi and it may come as no shock in Georgian football circles that they mustered a very bleak showing with all their sides falling at the first hurdle in both competitions. For Georgia, next year represents the first test of whether the switch was worthwhile results wise.
Georgia and Moldova's decisions to switch to a summer calendar has raised a serious question for the majority of lower ranked leagues in UEFA. Would switching calendars help teams in Europe?. For the majority of leagues in the lower half of the UEFA country coefficient ranking these European qualifiers are massive. The revenue on offer just for taking part and getting through a few rounds is a game changer. Being best prepared for these qualifiers in the way of match fitness is only done with competitive football.
A case study for this is Ireland where in 2002 the decision was made to go to a summer schedule with the aim of improving European results the major factor behind it. Since 2003 it is safe to assume that the switch has helped in that department with two clubs reaching the group stages of the Europa league and Shelbourne coming close to a berth in the champions league group stage in 2004. However that isn't to say it's guaranteed to improve results, Ireland still produced a couple of poor years with 2013-14 the standout where it scored the lowest collective coefficient points out of all the leagues.
A lot of European leagues operate lengthy winter breaks with some ranging from two weeks to three months. Both Georgia and Moldova operated lengthy winter breaks when in the winter schedule and so the switch in calendar doesn't really change much in that record. The lengthy winter breaks are enforced due to harsh winters Eastern Europe experiences further strengthening the appeal of summer football.
It is a trend that will be interest to follow if other leagues decide that playing through the summer might benefit continental performance.
Earlier this year Moldova made the same decision to switch to a summer schedule from 2018 onwards. The result of this is a concise transitional campaign crammed into the calendar before the year is out, similar to what Georgia did last year.
Georgia's Umaglesi liga was broken into two groups of seven teams. The objective for the new summer campaign was to have a rebranded league of ten teams. The format of the league saw a surprise league win for Samtredia for the first time while traditional powers Dinamo Tbilisi and the recently impressive Dila Gori missed out on Europe completely. Only Torpedo Kutaisi of the traditional powers qualified. The league concluded with play-offs and everything was done and dusted by mid December with the new rebranded Erovnuli liga beginning on March 4th.
The transitional campaign gave Samtredia a unique opportunity to gain a league title and champions league qualification.
The decision to switch calendars is obvious and that's to improve European results. Georgia and Moldova enter sides in early qualifying rounds of European competition and clubs head into these games out of season lacking match fitness. From Moldova only Sheriff Tiraspol has ever reached the group stage of either the Champions league or Europa league while for Georgia only Dinamo Tbilisi have made the group stage once which was the UEFA cup.
For Moldova this year the league campaign ended on May 30th with the so called gold match to decide the league title which was won by Sheriff Tiraspol who then face Kukësi in the champions league on July 12th. For the Europa league entrants the league season ended on May 21st with the first European games played on June 29th.
Georgia this year were without their traditional power of Dinamo Tbilisi and it may come as no shock in Georgian football circles that they mustered a very bleak showing with all their sides falling at the first hurdle in both competitions. For Georgia, next year represents the first test of whether the switch was worthwhile results wise.
Georgia and Moldova's decisions to switch to a summer calendar has raised a serious question for the majority of lower ranked leagues in UEFA. Would switching calendars help teams in Europe?. For the majority of leagues in the lower half of the UEFA country coefficient ranking these European qualifiers are massive. The revenue on offer just for taking part and getting through a few rounds is a game changer. Being best prepared for these qualifiers in the way of match fitness is only done with competitive football.
A case study for this is Ireland where in 2002 the decision was made to go to a summer schedule with the aim of improving European results the major factor behind it. Since 2003 it is safe to assume that the switch has helped in that department with two clubs reaching the group stages of the Europa league and Shelbourne coming close to a berth in the champions league group stage in 2004. However that isn't to say it's guaranteed to improve results, Ireland still produced a couple of poor years with 2013-14 the standout where it scored the lowest collective coefficient points out of all the leagues.
A lot of European leagues operate lengthy winter breaks with some ranging from two weeks to three months. Both Georgia and Moldova operated lengthy winter breaks when in the winter schedule and so the switch in calendar doesn't really change much in that record. The lengthy winter breaks are enforced due to harsh winters Eastern Europe experiences further strengthening the appeal of summer football.
It is a trend that will be interest to follow if other leagues decide that playing through the summer might benefit continental performance.
Wednesday, 5 July 2017
Oh Frown of Scotland
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Rangers exit Europe at the first hurdle Source: Imago |
However last night Rangers had their 1-0 lead from the first leg overturned by the plucky hosts who secured a memorable 2-0 win on the night to eliminate Rangers. It ensured progress through a round of European football for the first time in their history where they will meet Cypriots AEL Limassol, baring an even bigger shock from St Joseph's of Gibraltar on Thursday afternoon.
Such a result became big news with the press, fans on social media and pundits all reacting to Rangers' quick, early exit from a competition manager Pedro Caixinha had targeted progress in. This wasn't a case of Rangers coming up unstuck against a side playing in-season as Niederkorn hadn't played since the conclusion of their domestic campaign at the end of May. Their opponents before the tie had only ever scored once in twelve previous European games. Even the programme notes from Progrés Niederkorn were dismissive of their chances to cause a shock. However the players in the build up had been talking positively of their chances of knocking out their illustrious visitors.
Knock them out they did and it has got people once more, me included, talking about what is the problem with Scottish football, what is the standard and how low can you go?. The truth is it has been a miserable last week for Scottish clubs in Europe. Last week St Johnstone, who finished 4th to qualify were beaten at home by Lithuanians FK Trakai. The pressure is on St Johnstone tomorrow to rescue that tie or else Scotland will be left with just two sides in Europe after the first hurdle.
Scottish sides have struggled badly the last few years in Europe as a whole. Celtic were beaten in the first leg of last year's second qualifying round by Lincoln Red Imps from Gibraltar in what was considered the worst result by a Scottish club in European football but they recovered that shock to progress. Hearts however were beaten by Maltese side Birkirkara that showed beyond Celtic, Scottish football really does have a serious lack of quality. Those two examples only coming from last year. Should we go back further we can find Hibernian's shambolic 9-0 aggregate defeat to Malmö in 2013, the heaviest defeat ever for a Scottish team in European competition.
The reality is that Celtic in the past few years have been single handedly dragging the country coefficient up while everybody else bows out at the earliest opportunity. Aberdeen have been slowly stepping up to try and reverse the trend of Scottish clubs failing in Europe in the past few years. Their recent history in the Europa league has seen victories over FC Groningen and Rijeka alongside a respectable showing against Real Sociedad. However in each of the past three season's their involvement has ended at the third qualifying round stage, respectable compared to other sides.
Look at Scottish clubs in Europe nowadays and it is hard to believe that in the 2000s Scotland reached two European finals. Yes in the 2000s when the financial gap between the smaller nations and the big five or four really began to grow enormously. Celtic reached the UEFA cup final in 2003 taking Porto to extra-time in a thrilling final before losing out late. Five years later Rangers took on Zenit St Petersburg just as the Russians began to announce themselves as cash rich ambitious force to the east and although Rangers lost 2-0 they gave a good account of themselves despite playing a crazy amount of fixtures in the build up.
Such runs to the final saw Scotland allowed two clubs into the champions league and the decade saw both Celtic and Rangers reach the last 16 of that competition. It was a pretty good decade and towards the end even Aberdeen reached the last 32 of UEFA cup after coming through a group featuring Panathinaikos, Atlético Madrid, Lokomotiv Moskva and FC København. In the last 32 they bowed out to Bayern Munich after losing the second leg heavily following a 2-2 draw in Pittodrie.
Scotland's coefficient ranking in the decade shows just how well they were faring. They ranked as high as 9th in 2003 and remain consistently around that level for much of the decade ending it in 16th.
Decline
The current decline began to rear its head just a few short weeks after Rangers' UEFA cup final defeat to Zenit in 2008. They faced Lithuanian side FBK Kaunas in a champions league qualifier and were surprisingly eliminated with no European football for the rest of the season.
Since then its been a rough decade. Celtic would go from 2008 until 2012 without reaching the champions league group stage and the financial rewards that go with that. Rangers did have a run to the last 16 of the Europa league in 2010-11 but that was as good as it got for them. They would be eliminated in 2011-12 by Maribor of Slovenia in the play-off round.
The likes of Hearts, Hibernian, St Johnstone, Dundee United and Inverness Caledonian Thistle have all failed to progress beyond two rounds of European football this decade which has contributed to the continued Scottish slide down the coefficient table. From the high of 9th in 2003, Scotland's slump in the 2010s currently sees the league ranked 26th out of fifty-five UEFA members.
What can be done?
There is no magic formula to improve Scottish results in European competition. One suggestion that has been mentioned by Celtic manager Brendan Rogers is a calendar switch from winter to summer. Such a switch would mean that Scottish teams are at least match sharp going into these qualifiers, an advantage that can't be stressed enough. A calendar switch however wouldn't be popular, it worked in Ireland because there was only a premier and first division to move, in Scotland it would require a whole pyramid to be shifted. Do the lower league teams really fancy playing the season through the summer?
Money is the big issue and that comes with success so its a vicious cycle that Scottish clubs somehow have to break free of to improve. Perhaps losing the superiority complex would be a start. There was an element of under estimating the opponent in Rangers' humiliation this week and to most observers Rangers are light years away from where they once were to be underestimating any opponent. Other Scottish clubs haven't shown anything in recent years to be assuming they'll be getting through rounds in Europe. For the most part the opening qualifying rounds in Europe aren't against the big hitters, St Johnstone and Rangers for example in the first qualifying round were seeded (St Johnstone were seeded for the second as well) so avoided any of the decent sides that are drafted in at this stage of the competition.
However it seems with Scottish football the status quo must be retained and the lack of enthusiasm for change from the authorities ensures that we might be back here asking the same questions of Scottish football in a year or two again.
The likes of Hearts, Hibernian, St Johnstone, Dundee United and Inverness Caledonian Thistle have all failed to progress beyond two rounds of European football this decade which has contributed to the continued Scottish slide down the coefficient table. From the high of 9th in 2003, Scotland's slump in the 2010s currently sees the league ranked 26th out of fifty-five UEFA members.
What can be done?
There is no magic formula to improve Scottish results in European competition. One suggestion that has been mentioned by Celtic manager Brendan Rogers is a calendar switch from winter to summer. Such a switch would mean that Scottish teams are at least match sharp going into these qualifiers, an advantage that can't be stressed enough. A calendar switch however wouldn't be popular, it worked in Ireland because there was only a premier and first division to move, in Scotland it would require a whole pyramid to be shifted. Do the lower league teams really fancy playing the season through the summer?
Money is the big issue and that comes with success so its a vicious cycle that Scottish clubs somehow have to break free of to improve. Perhaps losing the superiority complex would be a start. There was an element of under estimating the opponent in Rangers' humiliation this week and to most observers Rangers are light years away from where they once were to be underestimating any opponent. Other Scottish clubs haven't shown anything in recent years to be assuming they'll be getting through rounds in Europe. For the most part the opening qualifying rounds in Europe aren't against the big hitters, St Johnstone and Rangers for example in the first qualifying round were seeded (St Johnstone were seeded for the second as well) so avoided any of the decent sides that are drafted in at this stage of the competition.
However it seems with Scottish football the status quo must be retained and the lack of enthusiasm for change from the authorities ensures that we might be back here asking the same questions of Scottish football in a year or two again.
Wednesday, 14 June 2017
The cost of being successful?
The following morning however bought City back down to earth and that familiar feeling of being successful in Ireland as Seani Maguire, the hat-trick hero in that 3-0 win, had his transfer to Preston North End confirmed. The rumoured fee is €150k with a few additional clauses put in with City at least securing his goal scoring services up to the end of July. This means Maguire will be available for two full Europa league rounds, should City progress, which is worth more than twice the transfer fee.
Having secured Maguire, the league's top scorer this season for a paltry sum, Preston have set their sights on City left-back Kevin O'Connor. The cost of being successful?
Well Dundalk know that themselves. Their European exploits last season put not only the club in the spotlight but the players as well. Centre-back Andy Boyle and flamboyant winger Daryl Horgan both joined Preston on free-transfers after the conclusion of Dundalk's Europa league campaign. That coming a year after losing goal scoring midfield Richie Towell to Brighton.
Unfortunately these transfers are commonplace in the league of Ireland. The major factor behind these is the weak financial positions of all the clubs. Clubs are only in a position to look ahead just one season and thus in the main only offer one year deals to players. Only the likes of City, Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers offer anything longer in the main. Promising young players are advised to sign one year deals by agents which strengthen their position in moves across the Irish sea.
Cork City's season has put them in the spotlight and any run in Europe this summer might attract more clubs to the other star performers. For City, such is their lead at the top of the league they realistically have it won which brings its own financial rewards with champions league football. That virtual guarantee should be attractive to potential Maguire replacements.
So far Preston seem to be the only English club looking around the league of Ireland for players on the cheap this summer. In the past players moving to England have had various degrees of success and failure. Brighton for example haven't been able to see the player Towell was at Dundalk while Preston's Horgan and Boyle have settled well.
The cost of being successful in Ireland has always been losing players to British clubs. The lack of revenue dictates that. Even if the league had a solid financial clout it would be in similar situations to many leagues outside of Europe's top three-four where selling players is the norm.
Shelbourne's 2004 European run saw them lose Wes Hoolohan to Scotland's Livingston for £123k. St Pat's lost their prized asset in Chris Forrester, Derry City going back to Niall McGinn and James McClean and of course Cork City who lost Kevin Doyle midway through the 2005 league winning season. The problem even back when the league was healthier is getting decent fees for players.
A stronger contract situation would ensure clubs get a somewhat decent transfer fee but that comes with stronger finances which is also no guarantee as seen in the early 2000s. Club's were in a healthier financial position and had stronger contracts and still lost the likes of Seamus Coleman, James McClean and Shane Long for minuscule amounts.
Friday, 2 June 2017
Russia's far east
The curtain was bought down on the National football league, the second tier in Russian football last weekend. The second leg of the promotion play-offs between two Premier league sides and the third and fourth placed national football league teams took place. One of those second tier sides was SKA Khabarovsk. A team unfancied that had in recent years cemented their place in mid-table in the second tier. The club are based in the far eastern city of Khabarovsk and had never graced the top tier, until now.
SKA Khabarovsk by finishing fourth entered the promotion/relegation play-off with FC Orenburg who had finished 13th on their inferior head-to-head record with Anji Makhachkala. The first leg was held in Khabarovsk's Lenin Stadium to see a nervy 0-0 draw. A positive result given they prevented their higher placed opponents scoring an away goal.
The second leg was equally as nervy, three days later and some 7,300 km away from home. Extra-time came and went without either side's net bulging as the lottery of penalties loomed large. Just under 7,000 in attendance were to witness the men from the east secure a first ever promotion into the Premier league with a 5-3 win in the shoot-out. The winning penalty being dispatched by Ruslan Koryan after Andrei Malykh had the misfortune to be the only player in the shoot-out not to convert for his side.
That promotion bought SKA Khabarovsk into the world media. Unfortunately it wasn't much to do with their shock promotion from mid-table to promotion in twelve months but to do with their geographic location. SKA being based in Khabarovsk are less than 30 miles away from the Chinese border and this season were one of just two sides from the far eastern corner of the country to participate in the second tier.
With the relegation of Siberian side Tom Tomsk from the Premier league next season SKA will be over 6,500 km from their nearest opponents in FK Ural from Yekaterinburg. Their furthest trip incidentally will be to Zenit's new Krestovsky stadium which is 8,850 km away from SKA's home.
SKA's promotion means they are the first far eastern team to play top tier football in Russia since 2008 when FC Luch-Energiya, based even further away in the port of Vladivostok, were relegated after finished bottom of the league. Luch-Energiya were despised by many of their Western opponents based purely on their geographic location. Complaints about the distance were plentiful and got particularly nasty when CSKA Moskva's Igor Akinfeev remarked about the club by saying "they should play in the Japanese league". That after Luch had torn into CSKA 4-0 in Vladivostok in 2007.
However SKA's promotion isn't a sign that football in the far east is booming, far from it in fact. As stated SKA will be the first side from the region in the top tier in nine years. While SKA were celebrating their unlikely promotion, down the road (in jest of course, it's 750 km away), Luch-Energiya were coming to terms with their relegation to the third tier (on the pitch, there is suggestions that they will replace FK Chita in the second tier next season). This relegation being their second into the third tier since their top flight relegation in 2008.
SKA will be just the third different side to play top level football from the region since the break up of the Soviet Union. The first side was FK Okean Nakhodka who to date remain the furthest eastern team to ever play in a top flight European league but are also no longer in existence having been liquidated in 2015.
Even the second tier has been sparsely represented in recent years. There was the 2014-15 season where SKA and Luch were joined by FC Sakhalin from the Sakhalin Oblast which is located off the Russian mainland and above Japan's northernmost Hokkaido island. Amazingly FC Sakhalin took part in the second tier that featured Baltika-Kaliningrad and thus the world record for the longest domestic league game was set with 10,500 km between the teams.
Teams from the region are always up against the geography. The Russian football federation did introduce a procedure to help ease the financial burden on the travel costs to and from the region a few years back. This was to group both SKA and Luch into one long haul journey, so for example, some teams out west would play Luch away and then a few days later play SKA away before jetting back west and likewise for SKA and Luch to play two away games in quick succession before flying back east. This being done a couple of times a season to cut the air miles slightly.
Challenge to stay up:
SKA's challenge is now to stay in the top flight. Doing so will of course be difficult for obvious reasons. The blueprint for them can be how Luch stayed in the top flight for two full seasons in the 2000s. In Luch's first season back in the top flight in 2006, they amassed twelve victories, eleven of which came at home. The following season they narrowly avoided the drop. This was in no small part achieved by their seven home victories. Of the thirty-two points collected that season, twenty-six were gained at home. The blueprint is clear for SKA, make the home advantage count.
Challenge to stay up:
SKA's challenge is now to stay in the top flight. Doing so will of course be difficult for obvious reasons. The blueprint for them can be how Luch stayed in the top flight for two full seasons in the 2000s. In Luch's first season back in the top flight in 2006, they amassed twelve victories, eleven of which came at home. The following season they narrowly avoided the drop. This was in no small part achieved by their seven home victories. Of the thirty-two points collected that season, twenty-six were gained at home. The blueprint is clear for SKA, make the home advantage count.
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