Wednesday 18 March 2015

An open Champions league?

Is the champions league more open this season than in previous years?. The 1st knockout round saw one of the pre-tournament favourites Chelsea eliminated by a spirited Paris Saint-Germain side while Schalke were so close to sending another pre-tournament favourite packing in Real Madrid. Granted we did have the Bayern stroll against Shakhtar and Barcelona are widely expected to finish Manchester City off tonight, but the the rest of the field looks pretty open.
 
The rest of the field contains Atlético, Monaco, Porto, Paris Saint-Germain and the winner of the Juventus Borussia Dortmund tie tonight. That's five of the last eight who were not among the favourites pre-tournament. The favourites will still remain Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich but to have as many as five outsiders making up the rest of the field makes for interesting viewing. It means we are guaranteed at least one match up between the outsiders in the last eight.
 
 Friday's draw is an open draw so we could also have a match-up between two of the favourites. In that case we will be guaranteed two match-ups of the outsiders which increases the likelihood of an outsider making the final.

   Of the outsiders, who is best equipped to make the final? Personally I fancy Atlético to reach a second final in succession. The reason for this is down to the fact that they can now focus on the champions league without the intense pressure of a title run-in. Yes they coped well on both fronts last season but being nine points behind in the title race this term rules them out realistically of another title success. Their only objective remaining domestically this season is overtaking Valencia in 3rd, who are a point ahead of them.

   Monaco, of the outsiders are the weakest and did just about enough over two games with Arsenal to squeeze through on away goals. They do have a mean defence in their favour but attack wise they just don't have enough.

  Paris Saint-Germain showed against Chelsea how well they can play with a very impressive performance with ten men in the second leg seeing them over the line. However their talisman Zlatan is suspended for the first leg of the quarter-finals which could be crucial to them.

  Porto were dominant against Basel in both games. They blew the Swiss champions away at the Dragao with a selection of fine goals too. They are a young team with good quality such as Brahimi, Herrera and Casemiro and will be a match for any side in the competition. However they don't have a defence strong enough to keep the favourites (should they draw any) or even the likes of Atlético or Paris Saint-Germain out.

  The winner of Juventus Borussia Dortmund will be interesting. Juventus are the lone Italian side left while Dortmund are getting a resurgence up the Bundesliga table going. When the draw for this tie was made, Juve were neck and neck with Roma in Serie A at the top while Dortmund were looking up at everybody in the Bundesliga, now Juve have pulled away from Roma and Dortmund are now only looking up at half the Bundesliga. This tie is still balanced at 2-1 Juventus from the first leg. An away goal for Dortmund could be vital providing they get past a defence that is the meanest in Italy. Either one of these teams won't be among the favourites to win the tournament but do provide interesting opposition.

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