Last night showed just how predictable the champions league has become. Barcelona eased passed Paris Saint Germain without a sweat while Bayern cruised past a Porto side that were threatening a shock but ultimately were up against it from the off.
These days at the start of every season one can pretty much predict that the winners will come from one of the three richest leagues (England, Germany and Spain) anybody outside of that hasn't got any chance. At the start of this season everyone's favorites for the title would've come from four names (Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Chelsea). Four names out of the thirty two competing teams. Hardly exciting when three of those are on course for the semi-finals as expected.
The last winners from outside the traditional big 4 leagues were Porto in 2004, and that side was dismantled as quick as they rose to prominence. That 2003-04 season was the last time this competition had an element of excitement and unpredictability. That year the semi-final line-up was Porto, Monaco, Deportivo and Chelsea. Such a line-up wouldn't happen these days. Since then the title has swapped between England, Spain, Italy and Germany.
You break each of those nations down and England this year didn't provide a challenge, Spain only has two sides realistically capable of winning it (yes Atlético went close last season but ultimately didn't win), Germany only has Bayern that are capable of winning it.
Some will hide behind the "No one has retained the trophy" argument but in reality its the same mega-rich fat cats that are winning it year after year. And it looks set to continue. England will be back challenging with their insane new TV deal providing the cash to stockpile the talent, Barcelona and Real Madrid will continue to bleed La Liga of any competition and Bayern will disable any potential challenger from home by signing their best players. All this will just continue the trend of the title swapping between the mega-rich.
Teams that make the group stages like Celtic, Maribor, APOEL Nicosia and even the likes of Ajax, Marseille and Porto are really only there to make up the numbers. The harsh reality is that none of them have a glimmer of winning this competition.
Even the qualifying stage is a battle of who has the biggest budget. This season we saw Irish champions St Patrick's Athletic take on Polish champions Legia Warszawa, the difference between them was 6-1 over two games but also about 20 million in budgets. The New Saints from Wales, by far the best Wales have to offer were outclassed by Slovakia's Slovan Bratislava, again a big gap in budgets.
As for the "Financial Fairplay" (FFP) its a scheme that was designed to maintain the status quo. Spend what you earn which means the likes of Monaco and Porto won't be able to compete with the fat cats. This tournament will continue to lack excitement and unpredictability.
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