Saturday, 29 August 2015

Champions League group draw reaction

Group A:
PSG
Real Madrid
Shakhtar Donetsk
Malmo

Real Madrid will qualify without any trouble from this group. The only potential surprise I can see in this group would be Shakhtar pushing PSG hard for that 2nd spot. A nice story from this group is Zlatan Ibrahimovic returning to his hometown to face Malmo. The Swedes didn't look too defensively sound against Celtic in the play-off round and are very much up against it in this group even for a shot at 3rd place.

  1. Real Madrid
  2. PSG
  3. Shakhtar Donetsk
  4. Malmo
Group B:
PSV 
Manchester United
CSKA Moskva
Wolfsburg

Manchester United get very lucky yet again with a group they should walk. Who qualifies with them however isn't as clear cut. You could make a case for any of the three. PSV have lost their main threat from last season, too United while Wolfsburg are set to lose their star player in Kevin de Bruyne. Wolfsburg do still have their main striking threat of Bas Dost and should he start firing he could be the difference in the Wolves going through. 
CSKA Moskva came from behind against Sporting CP to book their place and they could be a dangerous side to underestimate in this group. 
  1. Manchester United
  2. Wolfsburg
  3. CSKA Moskva
  4. PSV
Group C:
Benfica
Atlético Madrid
Galatasaray 
Astana

Atlético will be firm favorites to top this group with the quality they have added over the summer. 2nd place looks like being between Benfica and Galatasaray. The Portuguese champions have lost coach Jorge Jesús while Galatasaray were particularly poor last season in the champions league. It leaves us with the newcomers from Kazakhstan in Astana. Overcoming APOEL in the play-off round should serve as a warning to group rivals that they are not to be taken easily. However they don't poses the quality to finish in the top 2 and 3rd place might be beyond them. 
  1. Atlético Madrid
  2. Benfica
  3. Galatasaray
  4. Astana
Group D:
Juventus
Manchester City
Sevilla
Borussia Monchengladbach

A very interesting group it has to be said that pits Spain, England, Germany and Italy together. Juventus began Serie A with a defeat to Udinese at home and have lost Pirlo, Vidal and Tévez from last season while Manchester City have started like a train in the premier league. With City chasing De Bruyne from Wolfsburg it's difficult to imagine that with the quality they possess that they won't finish in the top 2. 
Sevilla are back in the champions league following back-to-back Europa league titles and will be a dangerous side particularly at home. They have done some very good transfer business and the signing of Fernando Llorente from Juve gives them extra firepower. Borussia Monchengladbach looked good at times last season and did meet Sevilla in last season's Europa league. The Germans were unlucky in that tie and will be stubborn opponents in this group. However their poor start to the Bundesliga could be a factor. 
  1. Manchester City
  2. Sevilla
  3. Juventus
  4. Borussia Monchengladbach
Group E: 
Barcelona
Bayer Leverkusen
Roma
BATE Borisov

Barcelona to qualify with ease. Leverkusen overcame Italian opposition in the play-off round in Lazio and will face another Roman side in Roma. It should be an interesting fight between those two for 2nd place. Leverkusen's loss of striker Huen-min-son has weakened them but Roma haven't impressed at all in 2015 so the head-to-heads will be key. BATE have qualified again but looked short of quality in last season's group so expect more of the same from the Belorussians. 
  1. Barcelona
  2. Bayer Leverkusen
  3. Roma
  4. BATE Borisov 
Group F:
Bayern Munich
Arsenal
Olympiacos
Dinamo Zagreb

A very predictable group. Bayern Munich should be topping this with Arsenal in 2nd. Olympiacos and Dinamo Zagreb haven't a hope of qualifying from this. 
  1. Bayern Munich
  2. Arsenal
  3. Olympiacos
  4. Dinamo Zagreb
Group G:
Chelsea
Porto
Dynamo Kyiv 
Maccabi Tel-Aviv

Chelsea have basically been given a bye into the last 16. Behind them Porto look too strong, even after selling Danilo and Jackson Martínez in the summer. Dynamo Kyiv and Maccabi Tel-Aviv will fight it out for the Europa league berth and I expect the Ukrainians to finish 3rd. 
  1. Chelsea
  2. Porto
  3. Dynamo Kyiv
  4. Maccabi Tel-Aviv
Group H:
Zenit St Petersburg
Valencia 
Lyon
Gent

A group that is actually kind of hard to call. Zenit fell at the group stage last season and despite being Russia richest club, have yet to make any impact on the champions league. 
Valencia are back and having just about seen off Monaco, Los Che will fancy their chances in this group. As will Lyon who pushed PSG to the Ligue 1 title last season till April and have kept the likes of Lacazette and Fekir. 
Belgian champions Gent complete the group and could jump into the reckoning if other sides underestimate them which is possible. 
  1. Zenit St Petersburg
  2. Valencia
  3. Lyon
  4. Gent

Thursday, 27 August 2015

New ground for Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan broke new ground last night as 2014 champions FC Astana overcame APOEL Nicosia to seal the passage into the champions league group stage. In doing so they became the first Kazakh club to qualify going one better than Shakhter Karaganda in 2013. 
Going into last night's 2nd leg, the side from the capital of Kazakhstan held a slender 1-0 lead over the Cypriots. The 2nd leg was very much a back against the wall resistance mission as Astana went with just one up front while APOEL went chasing the goal they needed to restore parity in the tie. 
The first half went by with APOEL much the better side in terms of attacking threat forcing keeper Nenad Eric into tipping Luís Leal's close range shot onto the post. 
Astana did have one or two excursions in the APOEL half with Foxi Kéthévoama forcing Boy Waterman into a save. 
The 2nd half continued in the same vein as the first with APOEL forcing the issue. The breakthrough did eventually come just shy of the hour mark. A free kick from Bosnian Semir Stilic got the Cypriots back on level terms and pendulum swung APOEL's way. Would Astana be able to hold on. In fact one goal for Astana would change everything but it was APOEL who looked the more likely to get a 2nd goal. The dangerous Vander causing problems for Astana as they began to fear it might not be their night. 
However for Astana they had a sting left in their tail and they showed it on 84 minutes when Baurzhan Dzholchiev hit a low shot across the APOEL goal which missed everyone except the on rushing Nemanja Maksimovic who tapped home to make it 1-1 on the night and 2-1 an aggregate but crucially it was an away goal which meant APOEL needed two goals in the final five minutes plus stoppage time. APOEL were shell shocked and the silence of the GSP stadium once Astana got that goal was telling as they knew that was it. 
Astana held on to create history while the disappointment was huge for APOEL who only three seasons ago were writing their own history with a run to the quarter-finals of the champions league. 

Astana were only founded in 2009 under the name of Lokomotiv Astana following a merger of two local clubs Megasport and Alma-Ata. Since then its been an upward rise that has seen them win the cup in 2010, make their European competition debut in 2013, winning the league in 2014 and last night joining the European elite in the champions league group stage. 
In the draw later today, Astana will be the team most want to avoid in terms of travel. Their remote location in central Kazakhstan makes them the furthest Eastern side in the competition. Whoever is pitted against them will have to be wary as they have a growing pedigree as Maribor and APOEL will testify to so far this season. 

Thursday, 20 August 2015

My La Liga preview 2015-16

La Liga returns after an interesting summer of transfers on and off the pitch. We have lost the likes of Mario Mandžukić, Xavi, Iker Casillas, Carlos Bacca, Andoni Iraola and Sergio García but on the flip side we have the likes of Jackson Martínez, Ciro Immobile, Evgen Konoplyanka and Danilo joining. Also this season marks the return of former players, Rafael Van Der Vaart is back pitching up at Real Betis, Filipe Luís is back at Atlético and my personal favourite is Juan Carlos Valerón back in the top flight with his hometown club Las Palmas. It makes for an interesting season at least.

Title Race:

Expect the Big Two to be up there as per usual. Barcelona have despite a "transfer ban" have strengthened their squad and will have the advantage of two fresh players in January in Arda Turan and Aleix Vidal. A cause for concern for Barca has been the recent super cup clashes. Granted Super Cup games are glorified friendlies but the fact that Barca have conceded eight goals in two games isn't ideal preparation.
Real Madrid gave stalwart goalkeeper Iker Casillas the boot this summer and continue to chase David De Gea as they look to get back among trophies. With the exception of Danilo the squad hasn't really been strenghtened and the appointment of Rafa Benítez is interesting to say the least. Madrid's season will depend on how quickly Benítez gets this side on song with his methods.
We could just have a third name in the race this season in Atlético Madrid who have gone about this summer by making some pretty good signings. The likes of Jackson Martínez, Luciano Vietto, Yannick Ferreira-Carrasco, Stefan Savić and the returning Óliver Torres have added depth and quality to the squad. Keeping the likes of Griezmann and Godín will be vital as well. Atlético could surprise many and launch a challenge, they certainly have the squad to give the big two something to think about.

Champions League:

Last season Valencia secured 4th place on the final day of the season, this campaign expectation as well as a European campaign will have to be juggled. In terms of the team the squad hasn't really been strengthened significantly. The likes of André Gomes, Rodrigo and Joao Cancelo have made their loans permanent while Álvaro Negredo was signed for the massive €30 million fee as part of the loan that took him to the Mestalla. Australian keeper Matt Ryan has signed as cover for Diego Alves but the big story has been surrounding Nicolás Otamendi.  The big Argentine defender has been linked with a move away and keeping him will show Los Che mean business in terms of their ambitions of maybe pushing beyond a champions league place.
Back-to-back Europa League triumphs has seen Sevilla's stature rise once again after a doldrum period. A champions league campaign couldn't help keep Carlos Bacca at the club but they have used that money very wisely indeed. Once again Sevilla went bargain hunting and they have strengthened their squad big time. Players such as N'Zonzi, Mariano, Konoplyanka and Immobile will add depth to the squad. They should be in the reckoning for the top 4 once more.
The yellow Submarine of Villarreal have lost the likes of Gio Dos Santos but have bought Roberto Soldado back to La Liga. If the former Valencia poacher can rediscover his pre-Tottenham form then he could be the signing that gets Villarreal firing for a top 4 finish.
The Basques from Athletic Bilbao shocked Barcelona in the super cup with a 4-0 victory and if they can repeat that over the course of the season they could be a dark horse to finish 4th again like in 2013-14. The over reliance on Aduriz however could be dangerous for them.

Europa League:

Real Sociedad will improve this season. Coach David Moyes now has the benefit of a full pre-season to get the Txuri-urdin into shape. The signings of Diego Reyes, Bruma and Concha add some pace and options but its the signing of Jonathas that has really got the attention. The Brazilian enjoyed a great season for Elche keeping them up, on the pitch at least. He brings physicality and ice-cool finishing to the Sociedad attack so expect an improvement this season.
Celta Vigo impressed with their style of football last season under Eduardo Berizzo and should they keep Nolito they could go one better this season and get a European place. Larrivey has departed for the UAE but they have recruited John Guidetti and re-signed Iago Aspas. Should be in the reckoning to push for Europe.
Despite being newly promoted I fancy Real Betis to be my dark horses to challenge for a European place. They might not finish as high but their summer signings are impressive. The evergreen Rubén Castro will again be relied upon for goals but with Van Der Vaart and Juan Vargas in the side as well they could have enough to push for Europe.

Mid-Table safety:

Espanyol these days seem to always fall into this category. They have lost their key player of recent years Sergio García but have signed Gerard Moreno from Villarreal for quiet a cheap fee who could be a very capable replacement. Hector Moreno is gone as well although he wasn't quite as good last season due to coming back from a lengthy injury. Should be ok from the drop but Europe might be again too far out of reach for Espanyol.
Málaga impressed last season and were threatening to break into Europe until they ran out of steam at the end of the season. However they have lost the two Samu's with both Samu and Castillejo heading to Villarreal. Sergi Darder is also looking likely to be leaving too. Málaga would probably take mid-table now.

Relegation battle:

Levante should be the strongest in this and while they will probably flirt with the drop for a while they should have enough to stay up. The signing of Nabil Ghilas who was one of Córdoba's few impressive performers last season looks particularly good for them. Likewise Verza from Almería, he was one of their better consistent performers in their futile attempt to avoid the drop last season.
Rayo Vallecano the fact that they stay up year after year is a miracle in itself. They have lost a number of players again this summer so the brief for Paco Jémez is keep us up. Their style of scoring more than the opposition should do the trick again this season. of their new signings, Patrick Ebert is one that stands out. The German had an impressive spell at Valladolid the last time he played in La Liga. Others such as Bébé, Juan Carlos in goal and Diego Llorente are decent signings.
They always seem to stick around but Getafe could be right in the mix this season. However similar to Levante, they should have enough to avoid the bottom three at the end but expect a few close calls over the course of the season. New boss Fran Escribá has made some good signings that will help Getafe avoid the drop with the likes of Damián Suárez and Moi Gómez. The Madrid side will also be looking to Pedro Léon once again for creativity.
Having survived on the final day last season, Deportivo La Coruna will be hoping to move up the table in this campaign. I can't see a massive improvement but can see them staying up. The signings of Luis Alberto and Fede Cartabia should give them some more creativity in the team that was lacking at times last season.
Newly promoted Las Palmas will tackle La Liga with a good cantera base as well as a few good prospects. Their main goal threat Sergio Araújo is going to be vital to their chances of staying up. Keeping the Argentine is esential for them and should be leave then the Canary Islanders will have a massive task in staying among the elite.
Granada struggled badly last season. It wasn't till the final four games of the campaign that they managed a run of form which ultimately saved them from relegation. The signings of Edgar Mendez, Rene Krhin and David Lombán will give them a bit more depth this season but I think this might be the campaign that sees Granada slip through the trap door.
Eibar were everyone's favourite underdog last season and although it did end up in relegation on the pitch, the Basque's got a 2nd chance with the demotion of Elche. Last season was based around a good first half of the season followed by a disasterous second half but it's difficult to see anything but a bottom three finish for Eibar this season.
They were a surprise promotion but Sporting Gijón look to be in real trouble. They can't sign players without letting others go, so haven't really strengthened this summer. If they do get some of the players they have been linked with they might make a fight of staying up but ultimately I think Gijón will be slipping back down to the Segunda.

1.       Barcelona
2.       Atlético Madrid
3.       Real Madrid
4.       Sevilla
5.       Valencia
6.       Athletic Bilbao
7.       Villarreal
8.       Real Sociedad
9.       Celta de Vigo
10.   Real Betis
11.   Espanyol
12.   Málaga
13.   Levante
14.   Getafe
15.   Rayo Vallecano
16.   Deportivo La Coruna
17.   Las Palmas
18.   Granada
19.   Eibar

20.   Sporting Gijón

Friday, 7 August 2015

Champions league and Europa league draws reaction

The play-off round of both Champions and Europa leagues was made today. The final hurdle before the group stages and for some sides the seasons hinges on these ties. Let's have a look at the draws and see what is in store.

Champions League:
Champions Path:
Astana v APOEL
Skenderbeu v Dinamo Zagreb
Celtic v Malmo
Basel v Maccabi Tel-Aviv
BATE Borisov v Partizan

Non-Champions Path:
Lazio v Bayer Leverkusen
Man United v Club Brugge
Sporting CP v CSKA Moskva
Rapid Wien v Shakhtar Donetsk
Valencia v Monaco

In the champions path we have Celtic facing Malmo in what seems a fairly evenly matched tie. Malmo made the group stage last season and Celtic are looking to return. Can see this going either way and probably lean towards Malmo getting through.
APOEL should be able to get through handily enough likewise Dinamo Zagreb and BATE Borisov. Which leaves us with Basel and Maccabi. Can see this tie being close and I'm leaning towards the Swiss side on this one.
For the non-champions I have a feeling Lazio might pull through against Leverkusen. Can see CSKA dispatching Sporting and Shakhtar comfortably getting over Rapid Wien.
Valencia v Monaco is probably the standout tie of the round. Monaco probably the team Valencia didn't want and likewise for the Monegasques. I'll take a plunge here and say Valencia on away goals. As much as I don't particularly like Man United, I can't see anything other than a comfortable victory for them against Club Brugge. Brugge were impressive last season reaching the last 8 of the Europa league but unfortunately they got the short straw in this draw.

Europa League: 
Reindorf Altach v Belenenses
Zilina v Athletic Bilbao
Steaua Bucuresti v Rosenborg
Zorya v Legia Warsaw
Viktoria Plzen v Vojvodina
Milsami Orhei v Saint-Étienne
Jablonec v Ajax
Young Boys v Qarabag
Molde v Standard Liége
PAOK v Brondby
Bordeaux v Kairat Almaty
Lech Poznan v Videoton
Dinamo Minsk v RB Salzburg
Rabotnicki v Rubin Kazan
Slovan Liberec v Hajduk Split
Atromitos v Fenerbahce
Panathinaikos v Qabala
Southampton v Midtjylland
Astra v AZ
Odd v Borussia Dortmund
Krasnodar v HJK Helsinki
Thun v Sparta Prague

The much more competitive Europa League features a few sides from less known leagues around Europe such as the Azeri pair of Qarabag and Qabala as well as Rabotnicki from Macedonia and Aberdeen's conquerors Kairat from Kazakhstan.
In terms of who I see going through to the group stage, I'm going with these.
Belenenses, Athletic Bilbao, Steaua, Legia, Viktoria Plzen, Saint-Étienne, Ajax, Qarabag, Standard Liége, PAOK, Bordeaux, Lech Poznan, Salzburg, Rubin Kazan, Hajduk Split, Fenerbahce, Panathinaikos, Southampton, Astra, Dortmund, HJK Helsinki and Sparta Prague.

Saturday, 1 August 2015

Celtic win but can anyone challenge them?

Celtic opened their league campaign up with a 2-0 win over Ross County today and it took them all of four minutes to edge in front. The ease of their victory is nothing new but can anyone challenge them for the title?

In short no, they finished 17 points ahead of an Aberdeen side last season that were at some point threatening to give Scotland a title race. In the end it was a stroll as expected for Celtic and this season will be no different.

Aberdeen lets not forget had a fantastic season last campaign so it remains to be seen if they can replicate the sort of form that did take them top of the table in January. The Dons though are the best of the rest and have kept most of last season's squad together.
What let Aberdeen down last season was the head-to-head clashes with Celtic. They lost all four games which accounted for 12 of the final 17 point gap. So that is the area of focus to improve on if Aberdeen are to challenge. Excluding the head-to-head clashes Aberdeen would've finished 5 points behind. Now 5 points isn't that big a gap and certainly they have a good squad that could get five more points than last season if and its a big if, they show the same level of consistency.

A ray of hope for a title challenge might be the shift in focus from Celtic. Celtic are looking to return to the group stages of the champions league and that brings its fair share of challenges. Celtic will be facing three games a week which might make a difference particularly in the 1st half of the season. However Aberdeen are on a decent European run themselves and should they also make the group stage of the Europa League that will bring it's own challenge of more games. Celtic might have the squad to cope with domestic and European commitments but do Aberdeen have the same?

And who else? Is there anyone else capable of joining Aberdeen in operation challenge Celtic. Inverness were 3rd last season but by and large overachieved and 3rd was a fantastic achievement for the highlanders. Do they have the capacity to maintain that standard? Dundee United however underachieved but have lost their entire strikeforce from last season to Celtic so that will probably suggest it probably won't be on the cards that United will challenge. Unless their new signing Rodney Sneijder sets the world on fire.
Hearts are an interesting team. Newly promoted and with a young team and manager in place they could be the team that surprises everyone this season. Will that surprise be a title challenge its probably too much to ask but certainly are one of the stronger newly promoted sides in recent years.

Overall though its extremely unlikely that there will be a title winner outside of Celtic or indeed a challenge to their dominance, but the thought of it is intriguing.