Wednesday 16 December 2015

The shock league champions

Leicester City's 2-1 victory over Chelsea on Monday saw them retake top spot in the English Premier league after 16 games played. They sit with 35 points, two ahead of Arsenal, four ahead of Manchester City, six ahead of Manchester United and astonishingly twenty ahead of defending champions Chelsea. The question on everyone's lips right now is "Can they win it?".

For someone who is frankly sick of the same teams winning the major trophies every year this is something that would be terrific to see. However many point out the potential stumbling blocks such as squad depth, rivals recruitment in January and plain old luck.

Previous examples:
If Leicester were to win the league they would be very much one of the shock champions in Europe in recent memory. In the top five European leagues I can only think of one occasion where a team similar to Leicester came out of nowhere to challenge for a league title and actually did the unthinkable and win it. To take it further I can think of one team that were newly promoted and won the league in their first season up, totally out of the blue.  From the top of my head I can think of one more where a team came out of the blue, challenged for the league till the bitter end and cruelly lost the title.

Montpellier 2011-12:
The first example is of course Montpellier and their astonishing Ligue 1 title win in 2011-12. The plucky side from the south coast had pipped Carlo Ancelotti and his big spending PSG side to the title by three points.
In that Montpellier squad that season was Oliver Giroud, Younés Belhanda, Remy Cabella and John Utaka to name just a few. Montpellier had a group of talented players acquired for very small money. Giroud was signed from Ligue 2 side Tours, Belhanda came from the youth system, Cabella likewise and Utaka was signed from Portsmouth amid their financial collapse.
Ligue 1 at the time was under a period of extreme competitiveness. Since Bordeaux ended the Lyon dominance in 2009, Marseille and Lille had won the league but both sides were in the upper echelons of the league for a few years. Montpellier the season before their title win finished 14th, in fact they were a Ligue 2 side in 2008-09.
Giroud ended the season joint top scorer with 21 goals which resulted in a transfer to Arsenal while Younés Belhanda was the creative force in the team as well as a goalscorer. The similarities with Leicester are uncanny. The Foxes this season have a striker in terrific form and a creative force hitting his fair share of goals and assists.
The downside to Montpellier's title victory was it put their star assets in the shop window. Like mentioned above Giroud was sold for just under €10 million, Belhanda left the following year for around €10 million. However this is where Leicester are different from Montpellier. The cote-d'azur side had the sell players to cover themselves financially as the French league doesn't have anywhere near the same revenue as the English Premier league. Leicester this season will earn at least €100 million by staying up which is pretty much guaranteed now so they won't be needing to sell their prized assets like Montpellier did.

Kaiserslautern 1997-98:
Kaiserslautern had won promotion to the Bundesliga in 1996-97 by winning the 2. Bundesliga title by ten points. No one could've predicted that the club would be celebrating winning another title twelve months later.
They went into the 1997-98 Bundesliga campaign eager to stay up and build from there. The team were under the guidance of Otto Rehhagel (who in 2004 won the European championships with Greece). Bayern Munich were the defending champions and obvious favorites to win it again. Kaiserslautern got off to a mighty start for a newly promoted team, winning six of their opening seven games. By the Christmas break they had done the double over Bayern Munich (1-0 away and 2-0 at home) and lost just three games. They threatened to throw it away late in the season with three draws in a row but in the end they managed to get over the line by two points from Bayern Munich. Kaiserslautern had become the first and so far only newly promoted team in Bundesliga history to win the title first year back up. 21 goal striker Olaf Marschall and the 11 goals from Jürgen Rische contributing in no small part to a historic triumph. 
The red devils as they are nicknamed haven't won the title since and it was their 2nd overall. They currently find themselves in 8th in the 2. Bundesliga. 

Real Sociedad 2002-03:
A title tilt that deserved a much happier end than what happened. Real Sociedad had come out of nowhere to challenge for the league title. At the time La Liga was also very competitive with Deportivo and Valencia having won the title in the previous three seasons. In 2001-02 Real Sociedad ended up 13th as they did the season before. So there wasn't really much warning that they would have a mighty tilt at the title. A very good start to the season was the foundation for a terrific first half of the season. The txuri-urdin were leading the way for much of the campaign. A dip in the new year invited Real Madrid back into the race but the galacticos themselves hit a patch of bad form which allowed Real Sociedad to re-take top spot in April.
La Liga in this campaign didn't end till late June and it was in June that the title tilt ended cruelly. A draw with Valencia was followed up by the crucial defeat at Celta Vigo which allowed Real Madrid to go two points clear going into the final game. Real Madrid won at home to Athletic Bilbao which rendered Real Sociedad's victory over Atlético a victory in vain.
What Real Sociedad had in the team was a pair of strikers that complimented each other. Turk Nihat Kahveci and Serb Darko Kovacevic had between them hit 43 league goals. The team also featured a young Xabi Alonso in midfield and a goalkeeper in Sander Westerveld who enjoyed a good season between the sticks. The Basques were relegated four years later and these days are in the all too familiar doldrums of mid table in La Liga.

Outside the Top 5 Euro leagues:
There have a few examples outside of the top 5 European leagues of teams coming out of nowhere to win the title. Bursaspor in Turkey became only the 2nd side outside of Istanbul to win the Turkish Super Lig title in 2009-10. Previously Bursaspor finished 6th and 13th. They haven't won the league since.
Croatia saw NK Zagreb claim their only league title in 2001-02 to become only the 3rd team to ever win the Croatian league title. To date they are the only side outside of Dinamo and Hajduk to have won the title.

Verdict:
The common theme with these champions (and in Real Sociedad's case near miss) is that they were very much one off success stories. All the sides mentioned above haven't won or challenged for their respective league titles since. Another theme is the stars of the successes were sold either immediately after or within two-three seasons of the triumph, suggesting that the clubs were happy to cash in on the success. Leicester however are substantially more rich than any of these teams and have the finances to hold onto their star assets and possibly build on their success.

1 comment:

  1. I would rather Leicester come close, say second or third and get a CL spot and remain in the top flight for a good time, than win it and never be heard from again, another one hit wonder. Texans say "remember the Alamo," Scots say "remember Gretna".

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