Tuesday, 22 March 2016

Eight to play and it's tight

The title may have been decided weeks ago, it's probably safe to assume the current top four will remain the same and Europa league places are looking settled, but there remains one big thing largely undecided and unlikely to be decided fully until the final day of the season, relegation.
It is no exaggeration to say that half the league are not realistically safe of relegation trouble. In fact 8th placed Málaga are lying just eleven points above the drop zone. It is unlikely Málaga will go down but in recent seasons their current total of 39 points hasn't been enough to stay up. Osasuna in 2013-14 went down with that total but astonishingly in the past teams have gone down with more. Villarreal went down in 2011-12 with 41 points, Betis were relegated in 2008-09 with 42 and amazingly 43 points for Deportivo in 2010-11 wasn't enough to keep them up. The moral of the story is forget the "magic 40 point mark" in La Liga.

This season so far at least no team is adrift in the relegation battle. Levante maybe four points off safety but their performances in recent weeks and the fact that they have games in the next few weeks against direct relegation rivals means they are very much alive in this battle. A late defeat to Deportivo on Saturday however won't do them any favors but a look at their upcoming fixtures presents a real opportunity. Sporting Gijón (h), Real Betis (a), Espanyol (h) and Granada (a) is the scene for Les Grenotes.

Carlos Castro seals the Sporting win against Atlético
source: espn
Sitting above Levante in 19th is Sporting Gijón. The Asturians newly promoted this season will take a massive confidence boost from this weekend. They only went out and beat Atlético Madrid by coming from behind. It could be the catalyst to get them out of danger. They'll need repeat performances of Saturday as they face the likes of Celta, Sevilla and Barcelona in their remaining games.

Getafe are the third side occupying a relegation place but only on the head-to-head. They have an inferior head-to-head record with Granada so that may cause problems for them if the finish level on points in the end, like the currently do now. The other side level on points with them, Rayo Vallecano, they face in the next round of games.

Above the 28 point teams are Las Palmas on 33 in 15th. They have hit form in recent weeks with four wins in the last five games that have elevated them out and clear of the drop zone. More wins are needed and they face mainly sides around them in their remaining fixtures.
In 14th we have a side that weren't expected to be involved in this battle at all, Valencia. Gary Neville has had a difficult start to his managerial career with Valencia and the awful run has seen them involved in this battle. A bad omen for them is that there has been history of sides involved in the champions league getting relegated in the same season. Villarreal 2011-12 and before that Celta de Vigo in 2003-04. So it's not beyond the realms of possibility that Valencia could go down unless they pick up.
Above them Real Betis (34 points), Espanyol (35), Real Sociedad (35), Deportivo (36) and Eibar (38) aren't out of the woods just yet.

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