Thursday, 18 August 2016

My La Liga 2016-17 preview

Well with it being August already (did it really go that quick) its time to preview another upcoming La Liga season. A fascinating summer of movement on and off the pitch around the league has us fans looking forward to a variety of things about this upcoming season. Will Real Madrid end their title drought of four years?, will Barcelona reign supreme yet again?, can Atlético nip in ahead once more?, can there be another challenger?, will little Leganés stay up? a lot of questions and more.


The title race:

We are accustomed at this stage to the same duo of Barcelona and Real Madrid fighting it out for the title. Atlético have crept up onto the scene in the past few years to make it interesting. Expect the same three to tussle it out for the title. 
Barcelona have added a bit of depth with the likes of Lucas Digne, Denis Suárez and Samuel Umtiti to the squad that won the league last year. I'd expect them to in all honesty win it again as Real Madrid haven't strengthened the squad. Only Álvaro Morata has arrived with the others being loan returns.
However I do think Atlético Madrid will finished above Real Madrid. I don't think Atlético will win the league with the elusive champions league title probably being the number one aim for Simeone. They have added good depth and will challenge for the title but I have my doubts as to them winning it, although if they do then fantastic!,

European Places:

 Villarreal were the team to claim the coveted 4th place last term. They had a superb season in which they also reached the semi-finals of the Europa league however they have lost a couple of decent players in Denis Suárez and Samu García. Also manager Marcelino departed last week and to add further agony, Roberto Soldado is facing a lengthy spell on the injury table. I don't expect the yellow submarine to repeat their 4th place finish.
Sevilla finally back in the top 4?
source: getty
That honor goes to Sevilla who I think will finally get their noses into the top four. Last season Sevilla were a disaster away from home with no win at all in the league. If they can produce even decent away form with their excellent home form then they are as strong a candidate for the 4th place as any. Yes they have lost a few key players but as per usual they seem to get by fairly well and the new signings have added depth.

Valencia with no European football could be one to watch. Two seasons ago without any European football, they finished 4th and they could go close to that this season. They have lost André Gomes who was very good for them at times last season, plus Gary Neville isn't around, no disprect Gary but you were a disaster.

Athletic Bilbao for the past few seasons have been a fixture in this bracket. I expect this season to be no different. No major departures with the exception of the retirment of Carlos Gurpegi and Ibai Gómez off to Alavés. Laporte is still around, Williams and of course evergreen Aritz Aduriz also.

Real Sociedad if they can get some sort of consistency could get into the hunt. After the sacking of David Moyes last winter, things got a little more settled under Enrique Sacristán. With a full pre-season with the players he could get them marching up to possibly a European place.

Mid-Table safety or obscurity 

Celta de Vigo started superbly last season and that was the foundation for their return to European competition. However they have lost possibly their best player in Nolito. With the pressure of more fixtures they might struggle to replicate last season's 6th place finish.

Staying in Galicia, Deportivo La Coruna were at one stage threatening a European battle, but they faded badly and ended well down the table. A glance at that table shows their problem. Relegated Rayo and Getafe won more games, what kept Depor up was their La Liga record haul of eighteen draws. The draws kept them up but prevented them from a much better season. Their hopes lie with Lucas Pérez staying which is still not certain.

Rubén Castro = Real Betis
source: twitter
Real Betis were newly promoted and achieved their objective of staying well clear of trouble last season. The objective now will be for them to push a bit higher in the league. I maintain that Real Betis are a massive club and that they shouldn't be this low down but never know. Rubén Castro surely can't keep his scoring records going ?
Málaga were defensively a solid team last year. Thirty five goals conceded was just one more than Real Madrid but the lack of a clinical goalscorer saw the Andalucians finish outside the European places. Javi Gracía however has departed for Rubin Kazan which means Juande Ramos, remember him, is back in La Liga, interesting times.

One of the more certain aspects of La Liga is Espanyol being in this bracket. Too good to be sucked into a relegation threat but not having enough to push for Europe. 13th last season more of the same. A few interesting signings such as José Reyes as well as Quique Sánchez Fores coming in as coach. 

The relegation battle

By far the most entertaining aspect of La Liga is the relegation dog fight. Always going down to the wire and expect something similar with probably six or seven sides fighting for their lives. I have a soft spot for a few of these sides so there will be no win win in terms of who I would want to go down but here we go. 
Valerón won't be around
source: worldfootball.net
Firstly is Las Palmas. Sadly, Juan Carlos Valerón has retired from professional football so there won't be the thrill of watching him pick eye of the needle passes. They are however a terrific side to watch going by last season. A few interesting signings have added a bit more quality and they should be safe and yes I want them to stay up, being the islanders and all that.

Sporting Gijón stayed up on the final day last season and it may take another late saving mission to keep them up. They have lost Alen Halilovic and top scorer Antonio Sanabria but something about them is saying "we'll be grand without them". I'll go with that hunch.

Newly promoted sides are usually pretty dreadful (Córdoba 14-15) or half decent (Real Betis 15-16) so I think Alavés will be half decent. They won the Segunda last season and I for one am thrilled with their return to La Liga for the first time since 2005-06. A small compact stadium that will be the difference in staying up. Plus it's hard to hate a team that has Gaizka Toquero as their striker. 
Osasuna are back people !
source: marca.com
A massive welcome back is due to Osasuna too. I will admit I did fear they would be missing from La Liga for quite some time when they went down in 13-14 but they are back and hopefully will be sticking around. An unexpected promotion via the play-off left them with a little under two months to scramble a team good enough to stay up and the signing of Oriol Riera could do the trick. He was their top scorer in that relegation season.

Granada I do fear for. They stayed up miraculously in 14-15 and stayed up last season in the final few weeks. I have a feeling this will be the season they go down, partly because Youssef El-Arabi has departed, their main source of goals.

They would've went down in 14-15 had Elche not been demoted but I think it will catch up to them this season. Eibar have amazed a lot with their stint in the top flight. 14th last season they managed to keep away from the relegation zone but with other teams strengthening this probably will be the year they go down.

It was very much a shock promotion from Leganés. The side hailing from a satellite town just outside Madrid have it all to do really. As it turned out we missed out on the mighty Madrid derby with Getafe going down last season but I think it would be quite a story if Leganés can upset the odds and my prediction in staying up. They have signed a couple of decent players and probably the best known player is Rubén Pérez formally of Atlético, Granada and Betis. 

Hopes:

My hopes for the season will not be clichéd asking for goals and excellent refereeing decisions (in this league, you am I kidding). My biggest hope for the season would be for somehow a fourth contender for the title. It's unlikely but not beyond the realms. At least a fourth contender in contention into the new year. Please! . Also for Osasuna, Las Palmas and Alavés to stay up. Atlético to give the champions league another good go. Real Sociedad to be consistent, seriously no mucking about. 

My Prediction:

  1. Barcelona
  2. Atlético Madrid
  3. Real Madrid
  4. Sevilla 
  5. Valencia
  6. Athletic Bilbao
  7. Villarreal
  8. Real Sociedad
  9. Celta de Vigo
  10. Real Betis
  11. Málaga
  12. Deportivo La Coruna 
  13. Espanyol
  14. Las Palmas
  15. Sporting Gijón
  16. Deportivo Alavés 
  17. Osasuna
  18. Granada 
  19. Eibar
  20. Leganés

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