Champions League draw reaction

With European club competition shutting down until the new year here is a preview of the Round of 16 ties.

Juventus v Tottenham Hotspur

An exciting tie that should provide a pair of thrillers. Tottenham are currently enduring a slump in form having looked very threatening in the early autumn. Much like all these ties form could be completely different by the time these ties come around in February. 

As for Juventus well they are currently engulfed in a mighty tussle at the top of Serie with Napoli, Inter Milan and Roma just about hanging in there. Tottenham being at home in the second leg could be the factor that sways this tie but I'll go against the grain here and go with Juventus to edge through.

Basel v Manchester City

Manchester City are unstoppable on the domestic front so far this season. Their only defeat came away to Shakhtar Donetsk albeit they had assured qualification by the time of the reverse. They could well be in as much irresistible form in February as they are now but even if they have a slump they ought to be putting Basel to the sword. Basel will look to their impressive recent record against English sides as a source of hope and they have already beaten one half of Manchester this season. The Swiss super league will be back after the winter break by two weeks at the time of the first leg which should mean Basel will be the fresher of the two sides. Manchester City's quality to shine here.

Porto v Liverpool

A tricky tie to predict given the inconsistent nature of both sides. Much has been written about Liverpool's strengths and weaknesses with Porto finishing second in their group to qualify for  the last 16. Domestically Porto are top of the league, level with Sporting CP and three points ahead of Benfica. The second leg at Anfield is the deciding factor here and Liverpool will use that to qualify.

Sevilla v Manchester United

Sevilla celebrate their late third goal against Liverpool
source: getty images

On current form this is a Manchester United victory. With the league gone José Mourinho will no doubt be putting his focus on going as far as possible in the competition. As always with English sides the issue of a lack of winter stoppage could be the leveller as is Sevilla's incredible home form of the past year.
The Andalucians are unbeaten in over a year at home and as such can't be underestimated on home turf. Away from home is their major weakness and this weak Sevilla parted ways with coach Eduardo Berizzo after a terrible run of recent results despite a well documented cancer operation. United to go through but I don't think it'll be the walkover many expect.

Real Madrid v Paris Saint-Germain

The headline tie of the round. Two of the favorites for the tournament will clash in the last 16 and it's got tongues wagging. Real Madrid are out of the domestic title race and have this alongside the Copa del Rey to focus fully on. PSG are sailing as expected away from everyone domestically and this is the tournament where their season will be won and lost. Can PSG make the big step up from domestic duty to getting the better of an underachieving power?. On current form they ought to be winning this. Real Madrid are in dire straits in La Liga currently fourth and a massive fourteen points behind Barcelona. Zinedine Zidane will be feeling the heat if they do not progress as will Unai Emery if his side don't. Something will have to give and I can see Real Madrid's big time experience being the deciding factor here.

Shakhtar Donetsk v Roma 

Shakhtar have already overcome Italian opposition this season
source: reuters

The tie that hasn't generated a whole lot of talk in the media. Two of the rank outsiders go head-to-head for a place in the quarter-finals. Shakhtar have only once reached the last eight of this competition which was back in 2010-11 where a Pep Guardiola inspired Barcelona put them to the sword. Roma haven't graced the last eight in a decade where they famously were thumped by Manchester United. So one of these sides will be making a very much long awaited return to the last eight. Shakhtar will only have one league game before the first leg while Roma's winter break is during January and should be relatively fresh going into that first leg. Shakhtar were impressive in the group stage beating Manchester City to rubberstamp qualification while also getting the better of another Italian side in Napoli. I can see Shakhtar edging this.

Chelsea v Barcelona

Chelsea and Barcelona renew acquaintances yet again in a tie that should bring more epic moments. Barcelona effecively wrapped up the league title just before christmas while Chelsea are struggling to replicate the form of last season with more games to be played this season. Of course form could and will be different by the time February/March comes knocking around. I can see Barcelona going through based purely on the second leg being at home which is significant although many did say that exact thing ahead of that 2012 semi-final. A high scoring tie no doubt.

Bayern Munich v Beşiktaş

Beşiktaş finally navigated a group stage to reach the last 16 of the current format for the first time. They topped their group ahead of Porto and RB Leipzig in what was on paper a fairly even group. Their "reward" is Bayern Munich, so a bit of a short straw there. They should however approach with confidence on their form in this competition. Bayern Munich since the sacking of Carlo Ancelotti have managed to completely overturn a deficit in the league to being almost over the horizon in three months. The winter break will be well beyond them by the time of the tie and are overwhelming favorites here and unfortunately for the Turks I expect nothing less than a Bayern victory.

Celtic 69 unbeaten

Last weekend Celtic's eighteen month, sixty-nine game unbeaten run came to an emphatic halt by Hearts. The scenes after Celtic had been soundly beaten 4-0 saw manager Brendan Rodgers bring every member of the team into a huddle presumably to tell them to not dwell on the result and that they were history makers regardless. History makers they most certainly are, that sixty-nine game run is a British record, they became the first Scottish team to go a season unbeaten in one-hundred eighteen years and the first to do so in a thirty-eight game season.

Rodgers oversaw 68 of the 69 games
source: SNS Group/ Rob Casey

Such was the length of the run, it actually began under Rodgers' predecessor the Norwegian manager Ronny Deila. Defeat at St Johnstone on May 11th 2016, which saw the Perth side come from behind, was followed up with a 7-0 thumping of Motherwell on the final day of the 2015-16 season. That 7-0 win was Deila's last in charge after a campaign that saw Celtic fall below usual standards.
Rodgers would be appointed not long afterwards and the contrast would be day and night between the 2015-16 and 2016-17 campaigns.
The opening day of the 2016-17 season saw Celtic beat Hearts at Tynecastle. That was August 7th 2016, the Celts would drop points at Inverness (September 18th) and then draw again away to arch rivals Rangers in March, winning every single other domestic league game in that period. There was that roller-coaster game at Fir Park in December where Motherwell raced into a 2-0 lead, lost it, regained the lead and then lost it again with Tom Rogic scoring the winner in stoppage time. That would be the closest they would come to losing until much later in the run.
In fact Celtic would only drop points four times in the entire campaign with further draws at home to Partick Thistle and away at Ross County to finish not only as invincible title winners but treble winners too. 2016-17 Celtic were simply in a league of their own.

The current campaign began with Celtic winning the first three games before a draw at home to St Johnstone. Three more wins followed including a 2-0 Ibrox success before they needed to rescue a point at home to Hibernian in a 2-2 draw. Overall this season despite securing a third place finish in their Champions league group, Celtic haven't been as impressive as last season which was bound to happen given the incredible standard they set.
That defeat to Hearts was arguably coming for a few weeks. Celtic had a scandalous penalty decision awarded to them away at Motherwell with the team losing 1-0 going into the final two minutes of normal time. Callum McGregor was apparently felled in the area with replays showing it was most definetly a soft decision from referee Willie Collum. Scott Sinclair stepped up and converted the spot kick to salvage a draw from the clutches of defeat.
A week later a 1-0 home defeat to Anderlecht in the Champions league was as dire a performance of recent times. It was enough to qualify for the Europa league knockout phase in the new year on the better head-to-head record but it nonetheless was concerning. There was the 2-2 draw away at Hibernian the following weekend in which Celtic took a second half two goal lead before being pegged back to two-all and were a Mikael Lustig boot away from defeat in stoppage time.
The immediate reaction was going to be interesting. Would Celtic go into a slump in form or brush off the defeat and go again?. Three days later Partick Thistle were beaten 2-0 at Parkhead to get that defeat out of their system before following that up with an impressive 3-0 success at home to second placed Aberdeen. The gap at the top of the table has widened after the defeat and puts Celtic firmly back in control at the top without the distraction and media obsession of going unbeaten.

The most dramatic of Sunday's

For most Sunday November 26th was probably just another ordinary Sunday but for fans of two clubs in Europe it will be remembered for quite some time to come. You see Sunday November 26th was the final day of the league season in both Belarus and Georgia for 2017. Drama doesn't even do the events justice.

Belarus:

We'll start in Belarus as the final day of the season saw three sides in the hunt for title glory. Much of the build up here was about a variety of events such as the Belorussian football association reinstating a previously deducted three points to BATE which lifted them top of the pile. Shakhtyor Solihorsk only a couple of weeks ago had looked poised to take advantage of a dip in standards from BATE to claim a first title in twelve years but a crucial defeat last week at home to Torpedo Zhodino gave BATE the advantage going into this final day.
Also in the mix were Dinamo Minsk who came into the final day on the back of three successive victories. The capital side were looking for BATE to be beaten away at mid-table Gorodeya while only a win for themselves at Vitebsk would suffice. Shakhtyor also needed BATE to lose while they also needed to win to give themselves a chance, they were away at Neman Grodno.

Of all three games taking place simultaneously the first big change was with Dinamo Minsk taking a fifteenth minute lead at Vitebsk through Dmytro Khlyobas. Dinamo were now first but that would last a full three minutes as a Mirko Ivanic goal for BATE saw the defending champions of the past eleven years assume top spot. However BATE's 1-0 lead at Gorodeya wouldn't last six minutes as the home side rallied to equalize, Dinamo back in top spot. Further joy for Dinamo as it was shortly after that when Neman Grodno took the lead against Shakhtyor. A massive goal just after the half-hour mark in Gorodeya saw BATE fall behind as Kiril Pavlyuchek struck a dagger into BATE's title aspirations. No further goals followed as the half-time whistle sounded across the country.

Dinamo were forty-five minutes away from glory and they were edged closer to it barely a minute after the restart as Gorodeya sensationally made it 3-1 through Bojan Dubajic. A shock scoreline and drama. Shakhtyor managed an equalizer five minutes after that shock-wave to get themselves firmly back into contention. However Shakhtyor's hopes took another blow when Neman Grodno retook the lead barely five minutes after that equalizer. Seemingly three was being narrowed down to two as the second half wore on.
Dinamo added two more goals after the hour which all but confirmed they would be winning their game at least. The 78th minute arrived and the first of the late drama, penalty for BATE. Converted by Vladimir Rodionov, 3-2 with just over ten minutes remaining and a draw suffice to win the title. Nerves in both Gorodeya and Vitebsk some 380km apart. Vitebsk pulled a goal back but nothing to worry Dinamo as they now lead 4-1, Shakhtyor piling forward desperately seeking a spark and BATE likewise.
Dinamo's game ends 4-1 and Neman Grodno put the final nail in Shakhtyor's coffin with a third in stoppage time. BATE's game goes into six minutes added time anxious wait from Dinamo players and management. GOAL! a cross into the box is headed off a defender and Mirko Ivanic is the recipient of the loose ball, he strikes low to equalize for BATE with the last kick of the game. Cloud nine for BATE and absolute gut wrenching despair for Dinamo as news filters through that BATE have won the title for the twelfth time in succession. Ivanic and his teammates pumped full of adrenaline chasing the Montenegrin as he wheels over to the travelling support in absolute ecstasy from what they have just seen in front of them.

Georgia:

Just as the games ended in Belarus the final game of the season was beginning over in Georgia. All the other games on the final day kicked off earlier in the day to give this clash all the attention. Going into this final game Dinamo Tbilisi were top of the table by two points from Torpedo Kutaisi and as faith would have it, Dinamo's opponents on this final day in the capital. 

The build up to this final clash saw Dinamo at one stage seemingly sailing towards a first title in two seasons. A stuttering run allowed Torpedo Kutaisi the opportunity to haul themselves back into contention which they made no mistake and gradually they got themselves closer. Dinamo dropped two points last weekend across the city at Saburtalo while Torpedo got themselves within a win of the title with a 2-0 home success over Dinamo Batumi. Both results effectively ensured a title play-off on the final day. 

What made this clash even more enthralling was Torpedo chasing a first league title since 2002. Both Dinamo and Torpedo are the arch-rivals with both sets of fans not taking a particular like to each other. It all mixed to create this tremendous winner takes all clash. 

Torpedo having to win the game saw them push a little bit more with Dinamo looking to take advantage on the counter knowing a draw would be enough. The breakthrough didn't come until the seventy-fourth minute when Kapanadze nodded home from close range for Torpedo. It gave the Kutaisi side the lead they needed and just over fifteen minutes away from the title.
Then the drama. Four minutes added time was signaled and then a penalty was given. It appeared harsh on first viewing but a couple of replays showed there was just enough contact from Giorgi

Torpedo Kutaisi lift the title
Source: Torpedo Kutaisi

Guruli on Dinamo sub Mykola Kovtalyuk.
Otar Kiteishvili stepped up to take the spot kick, a spot kick that should he score his team win the league and should he fail he hands their arch rivals the title instead. Balls of steel and as cool a head required in this situation. Kiteishvili's penalty is beaten away by the feet of Roin Kvaskhvadze and that was literally the final play of the game as the full time whistle sounded to the delight of Torpedo Kutaisi and they're travelling supporters. 

New Zealand and the OFC

New Zealand down and out in Lima
source: getty images

In the early hours of last Thursday morning New Zealand's World cup hopes were dashed by a Peruvian side that ended their own thirty-six year absence from the finals. New Zealand had come into the tie very much as underdogs but the fact that it was Peru and not Colombia or Argentina gave the New Zealanders some hope. However a 0-0 stalemate in Wellington wasn't the ideal result to take to Lima. Overall though Peru's superior quality showed and they deserved to go through to Russia. The subject for this post is about New Zealand and the Oceania Football Confederation (OFC) as a whole.

To qualify for this intercontinental play-off New Zealand emphatically overcame the Solomon Islands 8-3 on aggregate. A result showed how far ahead New Zealand are in their confederation by winning so handsomely. OFC is the weakest confederation within FIFA and because of that it doesn't have an automatic qualification spot at the World cup finals. Australia became so disillusioned with the lack of progress to be made from OFC that they left in 2006 to join the Asian confederation (AFC). It can be argued for and against whether Australia have improved to great lengths since leaving OFC but the stark reality is they now play more competitive games and their record of qualifying for every World cup since can't be sniffed at.
It's been debated for years whether OFC actually deserves an automatic berth. Arguments for will turn to New Zealand's last finals appearance where sensationally they were the only unbeaten team at the 2010 finals along with Australia reaching the last sixteen in 2006 (Australia qualified for that tournament under OFC). Arguments against are the lack of strength in depth with even New Zealand not exactly pulling up trees with Tahiti's 2013 Confederations cup also getting an airing.

Near impossible challenge:
The current thirty-two team format has never seen OFC been granted with an automatic berth. The leading OFC nation has always had to face an intercontinental play-off for a seat at the top table. More often than not OFC have been absent from the finals due to play-off heartbreak. The 1997 play-off where Australia lost out to Iran on away goals being the notable defeat. Four years later in November 2001 Australia took a 1-0 lead to Montevideo looking to dump two time winners Uruguay out but a 3-0 defeat put an end to the Socceroos. Australia did get the better of Uruguay in 2005 in what turned out to be their final campaign as an OFC member. Beating the Uruguyans on penalties ended a lengthy thirty-two year wait for a finals appearance, which shows the scale of the challenge facing OFC nations.
New Zealand themselves qualified in 2010 beating Bahrain in the play-off before being utterly outclassed by Mexico in the 2014 edition.
However Oceania is set to get an automatic berth in the new expansion which kicks in from the 2026 World cup onwards. Such a development will more than likely see New Zealand become a regular fixture at the finals as it's unlikely anyone else will be strong enough to overcome them thus the fears of practically giving them a bye are legitimate. Critics of the expansion, myself included, feel expansion was unnecessary and that a rejig of Confederation places was all that was needed to change. Until then there is still one World cup cycle under the current format and the smart money is on OFC not being present for the finals in Qatar.

Disband OFC?
Some people online have suggested disbanding the OFC altogether and merging with the AFC instead. I'm of the opinion a merger would be a lot more hassle than it's worth. If a straight merger was to happen then the AFC would become absolutely massive with membership going up to sixty-one nations from the current forty-eight. That is simply way too big for a single confederation. Besides I don't think having Lebanon v Cook Islands qualifiers will be doing anyone any good.
If merging is needed then perhaps splitting the AFC into two is the way to go. Again it's likely to cause more hassle than it's worth as by splitting the confederation you weaken the playing field. For instance South Korea have to get the better of not only neighboring countries such as Japan, China and North Korea to qualify, they also have to get the better of Saudi Arabia, Iran and Uzbekistan in the west. By splitting the confederation you make it much easier for South Korea to qualify with less competitive games and you are left with a situation not to dissimilar to OFC when both Australia and New Zealand had far too little competitive games.
Splitting the AFC into East and West would in my opinion see the West be of slightly high quality given that West Asia would have the likes of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Uzbekistan, Syria and the UAE with East having Japan, South and North Korea, Australia and with a bit of a drop off after that in terms of quality. Essentially splitting the Confederation isn't going to happen realistically and so OFC will continue to exist and get by.
What if New Zealand go to AFC themselves? This has been posed a few times but I'd retort back what does the OFC do then without New Zealand? OFC would suffer massively without New Zealand much like when Australia left in 2006, New Zealand didn't have that team to aspire to overcome in the confederation. Besides I highly doubt the AFC will be looking at taking in New Zealand given some members haven't exactly warmed to Australia being part of the confederation some eleven years on.

Future:
New Zealand won't be leaving the OFC that's for certain. The expansion from 2026 keeps them firmly in OFC as that automatic qualification spot should be their's to lose. Until then however, the All-Whites will attempt to qualify for Qatar 2022. The luck of the draw may see them not having to face a CONMEBOL team and maybe they'll face an AFC or CONCACAF side for a spot in five years time.
Coach Anthony Hudson's future is also a topic up for discussion after the end of the campaign last week. Whether it's Hudson or another manager the All-Whites' schedule sees the OFC Nations cup on the horizon in 2020 with that being the gateway to the Confederations cup the following year. 2021 will also see the qualifiers for the World cup take place. So for the next two years it's back to the drawing board for OFC's leading nation to come up with a strategy to break into the thirty-two team party one last time.

Road to Russia reaches its climax

November's international week is upon us and with it the final hurdle for nineteen countries who still harbor hopes of making the cut for Russia next summer. However nineteen doesn't quite fit into the nine places that are remaining so let's have a look at who will be making it.

Africa:

Groups B and E have already been decided with Nigeria and Egypt respectively on the plane to Russia next summer. The remaining groups remain in the balance, some tighter than others. 

Group A:

Tunisia currently lead the group by three points from DR Congo. Both Libya and Guinea have long since been eliminated but both will have the final say this Saturday. Tunisia host Libya knowing a draw will be enough to secure qualification while DR Congo need to hope for a shock Libyan victory as well as beating Guinea themselves. It's hard to look past Tunisia sealing this. 

Group C:

This group comes down to a straight shootout between group leaders Morocco and second placed Ivory Coast. However the Ivory Coast have home advantage on Saturday with Morocco travelling to Abidjan knowing a point will be enough to seal a first qualification to the finals since 1998. Ivory Coast's last home game was lost to Gabon in September giving Morocco some hope of ending the World cup absence. I think Morocco will get the result they need here.

Group D:

Group D could be decided on Saturday as the rearranged game of South Africa v Senegal takes place. FIFA ordered a replay after the original game was officiated by Joseph Lamptey who has since been banned for life after "unlawfully influencing" the result. Victory for Senegal in Polokwane will seal their qualification while defeat will set up a mighty final day in which any one of the four could qualify. Senegal sit on eight points with two games to play while Burkina Faso and Cape Verde sit on six points with each having one game remaining and South Africa currently bottom on four points but with that Senegal game to play. I've a feeling Senegal will take care of the group on Saturday to qualify unfortunately. 

Europe:

It's play-off time in Europe as eight group runners-up go head-to-head for the final four spots on offer for the confederation. 

Northern Ireland v Switzerland

Northern Ireland were hoping for Switzerland and Switzerland probably looking at Northern Ireland as ideal opponents. This will be a close run tie I feel and the deciding factor is Switzerland being at home for the second leg. Michael O'Neill has overseen an outstanding turnaround in fortunes in guiding 'Norn Iron' to the last sixteen of the Euros and on the brink of a World cup berth for the first time since 1986. Switzerland will be in for a tough tie but I'm going with Switzerland to edge through this. 

Croatia v Greece

Croatia sacked manager Ante Čačić just before a deciding group game against Ukraine in October. The game was won and Croatia qualified for the play-offs. Standing in the way is Greece who have turned their fortunes around from the previous disastrous qualifying campaign for the 2016 Euros. Croatia on paper just have far too much quality I feel to come unstuck against a solid but unremarkable Greek side, when have we heard that before. Croatia to get through. 

A winner over Wales saw Ireland through to the play-offs
source: Stephen McCarthy/Sportsfile

Denmark v Ireland

Probably the team most people wanted from an Irish perspective. However it's still a very tricky tie truth be told. Denmark have obvious strengths such as the influential Christian Eriksen however the danger of focusing solely on the Tottenham midfielder is the fact that players such as Celta's Sisto, Feyenoord's Nicolai Jørgensen and the defensive duo of Simon Kjær and Andreas Christensen can be threats. Ireland's main strength has been the excellent defensive record maintained throughout qualification with just six conceded in ten games so far. My head says Denmark to shade it but this Irish team might have another performance in them such as the ones seen in Austria and Wales. 

Sweden v Italy

Probably the match-up of the round with two sides that were probably looking to avoid each other in the draw last month. Sweden haven't set the world alight and don't have the powers of Zlatan to call upon these days but can still be a tricky team for Italy who have had some unremarkable results in qualifying such as a draw with Macedonia. I just feel a World cup without Italy won't happen and that they will pull the rabbit of the hat. 

Inter-Continental play-offs:

Honduras v Australia

Australia and inter-continental play-offs again. The difference being they are entering it as Asia's representative but the Socceroos have had some heartbreak at this stage down the years namely the 2001 defeat to Uruguay but most painful of all the 1997 defeat to Iran on away goals. They come into this game sweating on Tim Cahill's fitness and face a side that pipped the United States to the play-off spot in CONCACAF. Honduras are a very physical team so the prospect of a patched up Tim Cahill facing them is a decision that coach Ange Postecoglu must think about. Postecoglu's future has also been a big talking point in the build up as he may not lead the Aussies out in Russia should they overcome the central Americans. I'm not convinced by this Australian team and I think Honduras will hold onto a lead from the first leg to qualify. 

Peru v New Zealand

This is an interesting match-up simply because for New Zealand it could've been a whole lot tougher. Messi's bailout for Argentina meant they qualified automatically and thus a collective sigh of relief  from the All-Whites ensued. Colombia also qualified automatically after drawing away in Peru. So for the New Zealanders its a Peru side that haven't qualified since 1982. New Zealand themselves haven't been at the finals since 2010 so this match-up offers a chance for one to step up. Peru however will be without Paolo Guerrero after he was suspended for thirty days for a doping offence, his loss cannot be understated to the Peruvians. I think Peru will get through here but will be keeping a close eye on this one. 

What would a Catalan league look like?

Catalonia has become big news this week as the Spanish government and courts ruled a referendum on independence as illegal. A region that has quite a growing separatist movement wants to make a decision on it's future. There has of course been multitudes of speculation about the region's biggest and flagship club, FC Barcelona. Would they be allowed to continue in La Liga, would they move to Lique 1 or would they slug it out in a newly formed Catalan league?. An intriguing topic nonetheless.

So for this post we'll focus on the scenario where Barcelona and other Catalan clubs can no longer play in the Spanish system and UEFA blocks a move to France. Catalonia becomes UEFA's 56th member state and a newly formed Catalan league kicks off.
This season there are three Catalan based clubs in La Liga namely Barcelona, Espanyol and Girona. In this scenario all three are invited to form the Catalan league. In the Segunda there are two more clubs in Reus Deportiu and Gimnástic Tarragona alongside Barcelona's B team but for the interest of first team clubs we'll add these two to the league.
Going down to the third tier we have seven more clubs eligible for the new league, these are Badalona, Cornellá, Llagostera, Lleida Esportiu, Olot, Peralada and Sabadell.
So this leaves a nice round figure of twelve teams which is enough for the top tier. The second tier is easily formed by just taking the entire group five of the Spanish Tercera división which in consisted entirely of Catalan teams leaving a total of eighteen eligible sides if the B teams of Espanyol and Reus Deportiu are taken out of contention. 
Below the Tercera Divisón in Spain are the regional leagues which make up the fifth tier. Catalonia has two groups at this level and a further one in the 6th tier. All competing sides here would be eligible to form the lower leagues of this new Catalan league system in their current league formats.

So this is visually what I have formed in this scenario.

Problems:

One quick glance at this Catalan system does show a glaring problem such a league will face, competitiveness. Barcelona would be by far and away the biggest club in the league. Only Espanyol could realistically have a chance of competing with the Blaugrana. However what will happen in this scenario is that Barcelona and Espanyol would lose a lot of their current players as the Catalan system will simply not generate enough money for them to hold onto the players. This in theory would reign Barcelona and Espanyol in from their fellow Catalan opponents. 

Competitiveness will be this league's main issue as in the mock twelve team league some of the clubs are struggling in the third tier of Spanish football currently. 

We then come to the issue of European places. As there would be no Catalan league in place prior to Catalonia getting independence in this scenario it might be that Barcelona will miss out on one European season. The reason for this is that they won't be allowed to represent Spain in the champions league and thus miss out on European football for one season until they have qualified through this Catalan system. 

As with Kosovo, Gibraltar and Montenegro in the last decade any new nation in UEFA will start at 0.000 in the co-efficient table. This means that Barcelona would be starting in the first qualifying round of the champions league under the Catalan flag and not the group stage as they do under the Spanish. The twist here for Barcelona is that as a result of the changes to the access list to UEFA competition from next season such a scenario will see Barcelona having to progress six rounds just to make the group stage of the champions league. 

Barcelona as well as Espanyol will likely decrease in stature. It is highly unlikely Barcelona will maintain their standing in European and world football by playingdomestically in Catalonia. As mentioned a lot of players will leave thus weakening the playing squad. 

Positives:

One big positive for this system is for clubs lower down in the current Spanish system. By playing in this Catalan league system they will have renewed and realistic hopes of actually playing European football through the league itself or the Catalan cup. Clubs such as Girona and Reus Deportiu will likely be contenders for Europa league spots in this system. 

Impact outside Catalonia:

Of course it won't just be Barcelona that will see a massive impact of this scenario. La Liga itself will lose its second most successful club while also seeing a total of three sides leaving the division. It's likely this will be fixed through either forgoing relegation for one season and promoting three clubs or La Liga going to a smaller league format of perhaps eighteen clubs. 

On the European front Barcelona will not be the force they are under the Spanish system. This will impact the latter rounds of European football with one major player out of the equation, which will give renewed hope to some of the middle teams in Europe to replace them. 

The Spanish national team will be weakened by the emergence of an independent Catalonia. Players such as Piqué, Fábregas, Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets will become mainstays in the Catalan national team leaving Spain to find replacements. 

Probably the biggest impact of this would be the precedence that it would set. Potentially a similar situation may arise in the Basque Country or Galicia which will impact Spain even more. All in all though it may be a while off yet but certainly this scenario would be a game changer in many ways. 

Europa league group stage predictions

The group of stage of the Europa league takes centre stage tomorrow with a host of games to decide the twenty four berths for the knock out stage in the new year. Some competitive groups featuring some big sides with firm aspirations of hoisting the trophy on May 16th in Lyon, France. AC Milan, Athletic Bilbao, Arsenal, Villarreal just some of the sides with designs on glory. Eleven sides are making their Europa league group stage debuts and it includes a first ever Macedonian side in Vardar. So here's how I think the groups will pan out.


Group A:
Villarreal have a host of injury concerns going into the group opener with Astana. Of the sides in the group they have the quality to top the group and I feel they will achieve that. Behind them is tricky to predict however. Slavia Praha, Astana and Maccabi Tel-Aviv are all of similar quality which will make for a tight group. I think Slavia will just about edge through behind Villarreal.

1. Villarreal
2. Slavia Praha
3. Maccabi Tel-Aviv
4. Astana

Group B:

No doubt the headline of this group is the FK Partizan and Skënderbeu clashes with Serbia and Albania going head-to-head for the first time since the drone clash in 2014. Ukrainians Dynamo Kyiv are my favourites to top this group and Swiss side BSC Young Boys will be aiming to join them. I think however FK Partizan will edge out the Swiss side and join Dynamo in the next phase. 

1. Dynamo Kyiv
2. FK Partizan
3. BSC Young Boys
4. Skënderbeu Korçë

Group C:

A tricky group to predict with a mix of regular European competitors and novices. Sporting Braga make a habit of doing well in Europe and I think their experience will get them through this group. However you can make a good case for the other three sides. İstanbul Başakşehir were the width of a post away from knocking Sevilla out of the champions league. Hoffenheim were not as impressive in the champions league qualifiers and they will be looking to string an improvement. Ludogorets in the past have progressed through the group stage and will be a threat. I'll go with Istanbul Basaksehir to continue their European campaign after christmas. 

1. Sporting Braga
2. İstanbul Başakşehir
3. Hoffenheim
4. Ludogorets Razgrad

Group D:

AC Milan will dominate this group, they have a much stronger team than any of the other sides. Many people's favorites to win the tournament outright I think Milan will comfortably sail through this. Joining them is the tricky part to this group. Rijeka, Austria Wien and AEK Athens it can be argued are of similar quality and for me I have a feeling AEK Athens can just about squeeze through but expect a tight group behind Milan. 

1. AC Milan
2. AEK Athens
3. Rijeka 
4. Austria Wien

Group E:

Not the most difficult group to predict to be honest. Lyon and Everton will get through. Atalanta are the dark horse however and while I'm not dismissing them completely I just don't think they'll have enough to nudge into the top two. Everton it depends if they take the competition seriously and Lyon have the motivation of the final being played in their own stadium. Cypriots Apollon Limassol will be up against it but hopefully they won't be cut adrift. 

1. Lyon
2. Everton
3. Atalanta
4. Apollon Limassol

Group F:

Lokomotiv Moskva I feel will top the group but it has the looks of a very close group with FC København also in the mix. Moldovan powerhouse Sheriff Tiraspol will have designs on progressing through a group for the first time. Czech cup winners Fastav Zlín are the rank outsiders but could catch the other three off guard. A tight group with København just about joining Lokomotiv in the next round. 

1. Lokomotiv Moskva
2. FC København
3. Sheriff Tiraspol
4. Fastav Zlín

Group G:

Viktoria Plzeň will meet Steaua București again after the Romanians knocked them out of the champions league qualifiers. Steaua then proceeded to get knocked out by Sporting CP in the following round but a rematch will no doubt give the Czechs a massive incentive. Also in the group are Swiss cup holders Lugano and Israeli champions Hapoel Be'er Sheva. Hapoel progressed from a tougher group last year and should do again this season. I fancy Viktoria Plzeň to join them. 

1. Hapoel Be'er Sheva
2. Viktoria Plzeň
3. Steaua București
4. Lugano

Group H:

A group that Arsenal ought to be comfortably topping, depending on how seriously they take the competition of course. Köln will be favorites to join them but I think Red Star Belgrade will edge out the Germans behind Arsenal. BATE Borisov will be dark horses but won't have enough to get through. 

1. Arsenal
2. Red Star Belgrade
3. Köln
4. BATE Borisov

Group I:

I'm expecting quite a competitive group here. Marseille should be able to get through and put recent domestic woes behind them. Salzburg usually get through groups and that experience will be invaluable. Konyaspor are still novices on the European scene having made their debut last season, however I can't see them making much inroads into progressing from the group. Vitória Guimarães another side that have potential to mix it up will be in the running to progress but I think Salzburg will edge through. 

1. Marseille
2. RB Salzburg
3. Vitória Guimarães
4. Konyaspor

Group J: 
Östersunds were the story of the Europa league qualifiers by knocking out both Galatasaray and PAOK en route to the group stage in their debut European campaign. They will need to dip into that formula of giant killing to get through this group. Athletic Bilbao will get through comfortably with Hertha BSC and Zorya Luhansk making up the group. Hertha are favorites to acompany Bilbao and it is hard to argue against that however maybe the Swedes have a couple of more shocks in store?.

1. Athletic Bilbao
2. Hertha BSC
3. Östersunds
4. Zorya Luhansk

Group K:

Lazio are perhaps favorites to top this group which they should justify. Joining them I think will be Nice who unlike last season won't be involved in a domestic title race. Vitesse and Zulte Waregem will be in the hunt but Nice have slightly more quality in their armory than the Benelux duo. 

1. Lazio
2. Nice
3. Vitesse
4. Zulte Waregem

Group L:

I think there may well be a surprise in this group. Zenit are no doubt favorites to top the group with Real Sociedad also looking to get through. Rosenborg however I think will pose a significant threat to aforementioned two. Macedonians Vardar who eliminated Fenerbahce in the play off round will be up against it but could sneak a surprise result or two. 

1. Zenit St Petersburg
2. Real Sociedad
3. Rosenborg 
4. Vardar 

Champions League group stage preview

The group stages of the champions league returns tomorrow night with some interesting match ups in some of the groups. The draw has as usual been kind to some and harsh to others. This year sees Azerbaijan make their group stage debut with Qarabağ with Leipzig also set for their debut, while there is the returning Feyenoord to this stage for the first time in more than a decade

Group A
Manchester United's run of group stage luck continued with a very straight forward group that sees them pitted against Basel, Benfica and CSKA Moskva. They ought to be topping this group comfortably.
Behind them isn't as clear cut. Benfica have in the past two years made it out of the group and were quarter-finalists in 2016 which makes them my slight favorites ahead of Basel. Basel will challenge Benfica close for a place in the round of sixteen but Benfica's experience will edge Basel to the Europa league. CSKA Moskva have a rotten record at the group stage and being honest it's hard to make a case for them getting anything other than fourth place in the group.

1. Manchester United
2. Benfica
3. Basel
4. CSKA Moskva

Group B:
A group with two clear favorites and two rank outsiders. This group will be split into two battles, which of Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich tops the group and which of Anderlecht and Celtic gets the Europa league spot.
I expect Bayern's know how to get them top spot in the group condemning PSG to runners-up. For me the other battle is far more interesting as both Anderlecht and Celtic will have strong designs on obtaining European football after christmas. It is arguable that Anderlecht have a slightly higher quality team playing in a higher quality league week in week out but Celtic do have a fantastic home record. However Celtic's away record is abysmal and that for me will edge Anderlecht into third spot.

1. Bayern Munich
2. PSG 
3. Anderlecht
4. Celtic

Group C:
A genuinely tricky group to call that features three sides with firm aspirations of getting through. Of course three doesn't go into two and the team I feel that will miss out is Roma. Atlético I think will top the group but there won't be much between them, Chelsea and Roma in the final standings.
Group stage debutantes Qarabağ will finish bottom of the table but I fancy them to pick up one or two points.

1. Atlético Madrid
2. Chelsea
3. Roma
4. Qarabağ

Group D:
Barcelona will win the group, Juventus will finish second. Olympiacos I can see will just about nab the Europa league berth ahead of Sporting CP. Sporting CP missed out on the Europa league berth last season to Legia Warszawa and I feel Olympiacos are a stronger side than the Poles.

1. Barcelona
2. Juventus
3. Olympiacos
4. Sporting CP

Group E:
A tricky one to call. Sevilla despite their fantastic Europa league record haven't been able to transfer that form to the champions league, which opens this group up. Spartak Moskva will pose a threat to both Sevilla and Liverpool I feel. I can see Sevilla edging through in first place with Liverpool also getting through, Spartak in third and NK Maribor in fourth.

1. Sevilla
2. Liverpool
3. Spartak Moskva
4. NK Maribor

Group F:
Manchester City counted their lucky stars with decent group and they will get through quite comfortably. Napoli will get second spot comfortably as well. Feyenoord are back in the champions league but I think with Shakhtar Donetsk's more experience at this level in recent years will see the Ukrainians into third spot.

1. Manchester City
2. Napoli
3. Shakhtar Donetsk
4. Feyenoord

Group G:
The most open group of them all. AS Monaco have been decimated this summer but have bought decently. They won't repeat last year's run to the semi-finals but I think they'll squeeze through this group. I can see Porto joining them ahead of Leipzig given that Porto have a lot of experience of this competition and Leipzig playing on the European scene for the first time. However Beşiktaş are a side that are more than capable of upsetting the cart so although I won't predict the Turks to go through I wouldn't exactly be shocked if they do.

1. AS Monaco
2. Porto
3. Leipzig
4. Beşiktaş

Group H:
A group that Real Madrid ought to be topping. Borussia Dortmund or Tottenham to join them is the only interesting subplot in this group. APOEL will be finishing bottom of the group and it's difficult to see them picking up many points.
Borussia Dortmund are not the side of four-five years ago and for all the hype about this Tottenham side their European record in recent years has been awful. Tricky to predict but I'll side with Dortmund just about getting through behind Real Madrid.

1. Real Madrid
2. Borussia Dortmund
3. Tottenham Hotspur
4. APOEL

Ireland's debut in the Scottish challenge cup

League of Ireland clubs Bray Wanderers and Sligo Rovers took part in the Scottish challenge cup last weekend as debut guest teams. Bray Wanderers were drawn away to Scottish League Two side Elgin City while Sligo Rovers hosted Championship side Falkirk. It presented an opportunity for both clubs to pit themselves against sides they wouldn't ordinarily get the chance to play in a competitive fixture.
I'm reluctant to use one off games as a means to come to conclusions to the relative strengths and weaknesses of certain leagues over others but these games did provide us at least some glimpse into how our sides could fare in a competitive fixture against Scottish clubs. Irish sides haven't played a competitive fixture against a Scottish opponent in over ten years with Derry City's thumping aggregate victory over Gretna, who were at the time Division 2 (3rd tier champions), in the UEFA cup.
Last year I did a blog post on how I thought Irish sides would fare in the Scottish system, of course all hypothetical but to summarize I thought basically only the top two in Ireland would do reasonably well in the top division with the rest of our Premier division sides being of Scottish championship standard and below.

Embarrassment in Borough Briggs:
The first game last Saturday kicked off at 3pm with Bray Wanderers making the trip north to Elgin City. On paper and in the odds Bray were favorites here. The Wanderers had started the season very well but their campaign has now meandered into a what could've been season after the fiasco of financial problems in July. Elgin City meanwhile were third in League Two after four games. The first half came and went with both sides level at 0-0 by the interval. A lightning start to the second forty-five saw Elgin take the lead through Chris Dodd and that breakthrough forced Bray to go chasing a route back into the game. Elgin would add a second in stoppage time as Bray became desperate with Jordan Allen sticking the final nail into Bray's debut adventure. 2-0 the final score and the reaction was that of embarrassment from a Bray and League of Ireland point of view.

Sligo's unbeaten run ended:
Next up at 7:45pm was Sligo hosting Falkirk. Sligo struggling in the relegation battle albeit unbeaten in six games and Falkirk on the back of a disastrous start to their season lying in ninth.  This on paper was a much tougher assignment for Sligo than Bray had faced. Falkirk's average home crowd last season was just over 5,000, the third highest in the division behind Hibernian and Dundee United. Sligo's meanwhile was just over 1,700 in 2016 which was the fourth highest in Ireland. So going on figures such as those, Falkirk budget wise were much stronger.
On the game it took the Scottish visitors just nine minutes to make the breakthrough with Nathan Austin finishing after a slip in the Sligo defense. Seamus Sharkey leveled nine minutes later through a header from a corner. However Falkirk had one more sting though and retook the lead just before the half-hour mark with James Craigen slotting home. Sligo couldn't force another equalizer and like Bray before them exit the competition before they had a chance to get momentum together.

Verdict:
My thoughts before both clubs entered was that both were capable of going deep into this competition. With both teams knocked out in the debut campaign it doesn't look particularly good on the league that a team from the Scottish fourth tier could knock a top five side out while also keeping a clean sheet. Falkirk were always going to be a tough draw considering the other teams that Sligo could've been drawn against. The fact that the Sligo Falkirk game was a close fought battle is a little bit better from the League of Ireland point of view but overall this adventure has not been good.
Critics will point that Sligo are engulfed in a relegation battle and that this competition was a distraction will no doubt get an airing but Bray barring an incredible series of results will be safe come October and had the easier of the ties on paper ought to have looked for a decent run in this competition.
As I've mentioned earlier it's hard to draw conclusions on such a small sample size such as two games last weekend. I find the aspect of the SPFL including foreign sides into this competition interesting as this may become more and more the norm in the changing European footballing landscape in the coming years. What we can conclude after two games in this competition is that improvement is very much needed!.

Who will be next?

Azeri champions Qarabağ this week recorded a 1-0 first leg victory over FC København in the play-off round of the champions league. Should they see the job through next week in the Danish capital they will become the first Azeri club to ever compete in the champions league group stage since it was introduced with the rebranding of the competition in the early 1990s. 

This got me thinking however. Assuming Qarabağ qualify next week there will then be twenty two nations left in the UEFA which have never made the lucrative group stage. They are as follows: 

• Albania
• Andorra
• Armenia
• Bosnia-Herzegovina
• Estonia
• Faroe Islands
• Georgia
• Gibraltar
• Iceland
• Kosovo
• Latvia
• Lithuania
• Luxembourg
• Macedonia
• Malta
• Moldova
• Montenegro
• Northern Ireland
• Republic of Ireland
• San Marino
• Wales

The missing nation is Liechtenstein but in their case they don't have a league and play in the Swiss league system so never participate in the champions league. That leaves twenty one nations who haven't reached the promised land of the riches that is the group stage of the champions league. So my thought was, who will be the first of these to make the breakthrough? 

Change to the access list from 2018: 

So we'll start off by addressing the elephant in the room which is the rejig in the access list from 2018 onwards. UEFA's announcement last August that the top four nations in the co-efficient table will take half the thirty-two group stage spots will have a significant impact on this as the few links online about the format change seems to suggest that the champions route will be cut from five qualifying teams to four. 

The champions route is the route for as the title suggests league champions only. This is the route the likes of Legia Warszawa, Celtic, Astana and APOEL Nicosia have qualified for the group stage from. The rumored cut from five to four makes the route even more competitive and that extra bit harder for a lot of nations on this list to make a breakthrough. So with that in mind and going off the relatively small sources online it's not looking good for these nations and their champions league dreams. 

Process of elimination: 

I'll eliminate the nations that really don't have a hope of ever getting a team into the group stage. They are Andorra, Faroe Islands, Gibraltar, Malta and San Marino. The leagues in these countries are far to small to muster a challenge. They may produce teams that can grab one off results and at best progress one or two rounds in either competition but as far the champions league is concerned none of these will be making any inroads. Northern Ireland is another that won't be making any appearance in the group stage any time soon. Like the aforementioned countries they best they seem to muster is the odd decent result here and there. Kosovo is only starting it's journey and it's too early to make any great detailed assumption but their showings this year point to a lot of work needed.

The awkward opponents:
You can throw in Estonia, Luxembourg, Armenia, Wales and Lithuania into this. We have seen this year with Lithuania that they had a fantastic showing with Suduva still in the play-off round of the Europa league. However their champions league interest ended with Žalgiris Vilnius making Ludogorets Razgrad earn progression over two legs. Estonia is very hot and cold with results, they tend to progress a round or two rounds some years and fall miserably short at the first hurdle in other years. Wales have The New Saints annually qualifying for the qualifiers and are due a lucky draw in the second qualifying round to make Europa league inroads.
Luxembourg for a nation of their size punch well above themselves. Obviously they hit headlines this year with Progrés Niederkorn putting Rangers out of the Europa league but collectively Luxembourg clubs have mustered some fine results down the years. Armenia is too much of a basket case of a league to sustain a strong enough challenge for a group stage berth. Bosnia-Herzegovina always seem to get horrible draws in the champions league preventing any progress but do on occasions make their opponents work for progression.

The dark horses: 
Iceland are in this category for good reason. Like the national team the club scene has improved in the past ten years. Clubs are progressing a round more often than not and that is good progress from where the nation was years ago. KR Reykjavík regularly make the second qualifying round of the Europa league but it's the champions league where progress is slowly coming to fruition. FH struck lucky to get Faroese side Víkingur in the second qualifying round this year and after overcoming them they now take on Sporting Braga in the Europa league having narrowly lost out to Maribor.
Montenegro make up the other half of this category based on the progress they have made since independence from Serbia in 2006. Slowly their sides have been making life tough for bigger clubs in Europe and being based in a region that regularly produces fine footballers makes them a dark horse for me.

The contenders: 
So now we have the contenders. The nations on the list that I think have the best chances of breaking their Champions league duct. Now there may be a surprise or two in this category but I will outline my reasons as to why they merit inclusion:

Albania:
Albania have made serious inroads in recent years albeit just the one club in Skënderbeu Korçë. In 2015 the club reached the play-off round of the champions league. However the Croatian powerhouse of Dinamo Zagreb proved too strong for the Albanians to break into the group stage, going out 6-2 on aggregate. It did present them with the reward of Albania's first Europa league group stage entrant which they would go on to finish bottom of the group despite a 3-0 win over Sporting club de Portugal. 
This year Skënderbeu Korçë are in the Europa league play-off round continuing their progress. Since that 2015 shot, both Partizani Tirana and Kukësi have fallen at short of the play-off round. Partizani going out in the third round to Salzburg and Kukësi going out in the second round on away goals to Sheriff Tiraspol. However the threat is there I feel. 

Georgia:
This might be an odd inclusion but hear me out on this one. Georgia is home to Dinamo Tbilisi who have a Cup winners cup title to their name from days gone by. Dinamo are Georgia's best bet for making the breakthrough in the champions league. In fact they were agonizingly close to doing so in 1998.
Dinamo were drawn with Athletic Bilbao in the final qualifying round in 1998 and took a first leg 2-1 victory to Bilbao with them. A close fought game saw Bilbao edge their way through on away goals as they won 1-0 in San Mamés to the disappointment of the Georgians. Dinamo have played a total of 153 games in European competition so the vast experience is there and with the league now switched around to a summer league they will be approaching future qualifiers match sharp and for me that makes them contenders.
As for other Georgian sides, the next club in terms of European experience is Torpedo Kutaisi. The best they have mustered is second qualifying round appearances in 2001 and 2002. They need stability as this year was the first year they played in Europe for four years. In terms of experience the next two clubs are WIT Georgia and Zestafoni. WIT are in the second tier and Zestafoni are outside the league system.

Latvia:
The Baltic nation have twice come close to breaking through. Ventspils in 2009 reached the inaugural play-off round going out to Swiss side FC Zurich. That, like Albania in 2015, was enough to reach the Europa league group stage. Ventspils finished bottom of the group but did muster three draws.
Ten years earlier Skonto Riga were undone in their quest by a fifteen minute surge from Chelsea at the end of the first leg in the third qualifying round. Skonto went into the 75th minute at Stamford bridge level at 0-0 before goals from Celestine Babayaro, Gustavo Poyet and Chris Sutton knocked the stuffing out of the Latvian challenge. A second leg 0-0 draw in Riga pointed to a what might have been moment for the then Latvian powerhouse.
Those experiences though quite some time ago, show the potential is there but what is holding Latvia back for me is the constant instability of regular match fixing scandals and financial crisis'.

Macedonia:
Macedonia this year has had an unprecedented two clubs remaining in Europe at the play-off round stage of both competitions. Although Shkëndija drew the short straw with AC Milan, Vardar the perennial power have Turkish side Fenerbahçe to get through for a first ever group stage appearance in either competition. It might be strange to put a nation in that has yet to have a team reach the Europa league group stage but the simple fact is Macedonia has had a couple of close encounters with the champions league group stage. None as close as possibly 2004 when Vardar shocked CSKA Moskva en route to a clash with Sparta Praha in the final qualifying round. Sparta edging through 5-4 on aggregate to prolong the Macedonian wait. 
Rabotnički had a shot at the group stage two years later but their hopes ended with a 4-0 aggregate loss to Lille of France. While the Europa league group stage has been elusive, Macedonia have had five play-off or final qualifying round appearances with a group stage berth on the line. Rabotnički coming closest in 2007 and 2015 losing narrowly to Bolton and Rubin Kazan respectively. They are certainly knocking on the door and Vardar this year were very close to ending the group stage exile but came up short against FC København in the third qualifying round. 

Moldova:
Moldova have probably of these nations been the closest to breaking through. They were a goal and ten agonizing minutes away from the champions league group stage in 1999. Zimbru had dispatched both St Patrick's Athletic and Dinamo Tbilisi en route to the third and final qualifying round in 1999-00. Dutch side PSV Eindhoven stood in the way of history for the Moldovans. A first leg stalemate set up a dramatic night in Eindhoven. With ten minutes to play Luc Nilis fired a free-kick past Denis Romanenco before Andre Ooijer headed home a corner with three minutes to play as Zimbru chased the away goal that would've put them into the lucrative group stage. 
Since that near miss Moldova have had Sheriff Tiraspol rise as the powerhouse. Sheriff have made made the Europa league group stage thrice with two play-off round champions league appearances, both lost comprehensively. Sheriff play Legia Warszawa over two legs this month for another shot at the Europa league group stage but they hold Moldova's biggest hope for the champions league group stage in the next few years. 

Republic of Ireland:
Ireland have had two opportunities to breakthrough. The first featured arguably the greatest result an Irish side has ever achieved in Europe when Shelbourne drew 0-0 with Deportivo La Coruna in 2004. Shels kept the Galicians, nicknamed Super Depor in this era, out for a full hour of the second leg before two goals from Víctor and a Pandiani free-kick ended the dream. 
Twelve years would pass before an Irish side would grace the equivalent of the same stage. Dundalk in 2016 had shocked BATE Borisov in the third qualifying round to set up a play-off tie with Legia Warszawa. A 2-0 defeat in Dublin which included the concession of a silly stoppage time goal gave the Poles the advantage for the second leg. However Legia showed extreme nerves especially when Robbie Benson halved the advantage in the first half with a thunder strike. Legia eventually leveled on the night but Dundalk had chances to nick the tie. 
Ireland have had two Europa league group stage appearances with Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk as a consequence of that near miss. It's often labelled the impossible dream in Irish football but having two close encounters does show potential that it could end some day. 

Verdict: 
It's tough to decide which nation will breakthrough first as luck of the draw plays a big role in how far teams can get in a certain year. However I'll put my neck on the line and put forward Georgia just ahead of Ireland. The reason for this is that I think Dinamo Tbilisi have the greatest potential of the teams playing in all these nations. When looking at how across the border in Azerbaijan they have transformed from also ran to contenders in roughly ten-fifteen years I feel it isn't impossible to think that Georgia could take a leaf out of that blueprint.

A mismatch in every sense

The ongoing transfer saga of Neymar from Barcelona to Paris Saint-Germain for twice the world record transfer fee is taking Paris Saint-Germain to new eye watering levels of spending. It's no secret that Paris Saint-Germain are being back heavily by Qatar in the pursuit of champions league glory but the scale of this transfer really has to be stated in its absurdity.

While the ultimate prize for PSG in continental glory, domestically their budget has enabled them to become an absolute monster that dwarfs everybody else. It's when you see these kind of transfers that PSG are making that you have to acknowledge how amazing a job Leonardo Jardim did with Monaco last season to finish ahead of PSG and nab the Lique 1 title. A special mention must also go to Lucien Favre at Nice, who operated at a much smaller budget even compared to Monaco's let alone PSG's. Favre had managed to keep Nice in the Lique 1 title race last season until around March time when injuries derailed their ambitions.

The title race last season was surprisingly entertaining with the three teams going for it before Monaco outscored everyone with an exciting young squad. However the events of this summer have seen that young exciting squad at Monaco being shredded and there is still enough time in the window for further players to leave. Nice are unlikely to match last season's incredible highs with the added pressure of champions league games to juggle with a thin squad. Lyon have lost their talisman in Alexandre Lacazette and while ordinarily Marseille would be spending big money in French terms it's dwarfed by what is going on in the capital. It all points to a PSG procession to the title.

PSG are just operating in a completely different stratosphere to the rest of the league. The opening day of the season this coming weekend could potentially see one of the biggest mismatches take place, certainly in French circles, and arguably anywhere in Europe. PSG host newly promoted Amiens SC. Amiens SC will be competing in the French top flight for the first time in their history and it was obtained in the most dramatic of circumstances last season. A last minute goal away to Reims ensured Amiens finished third in Lique 2 to ensure promotion in a crazy final day where as many as six teams harboured promotion hopes.
Amiens only two seasons ago were playing in the National (third tier). Their rise to the top division for the first time sees them pitted against the might of PSG in their first game. Amiens haven't spent a dime on players so far this summer. Seven have signed as free transfers, one on loan and one promoted from the B team. They have lost Aboubakar Kamara, scorer of eleven goals in Lique 2 last season to Fulham for £5 million.
According to transfermarkt, the website database on everything transfers the world over, the total market value of Amiens entire squad is £12.28 million, PSG's is £411.95 million, and that is before Neymar pitches up at the Parc de Princes. When he does complete the transfer it will according to the site's market value for Neymar bring PSG up to £496.95 million, astonishingly over forty times the worth of Amiens. Such a gap between two teams playing in the same league is unprecedented even in this era of mind numbing transfer fees.

I feel this warrants a lengthy post in itself but a quick glance at other leagues around Europe show various gaps between the top teams and bottom teams in the respective leagues. Across the channel in England the market value of the highest team is Manchester City with £544 million, the lowest is newly promoted Huddersfield with a total valuation of £43.99 million, some twelve times the difference.
In Spain, Barcelona have the highest valued squad with £664.28 million (including Neymar) with Girona being the lowest at £21.5 million for just over thirty times the difference between the two. Taking Neymar's valuation out sees this reduced to just under twenty-seven times the valuation between the two Catalan based clubs.
The Bundesliga unsurprisingly has Bayern Munich with the highest valued squad at £512.89 million which is just under fifteen times that of Hannover 96's valuation (£34.51m). Italy's Serie A sees Juventus (£437.92m) with twenty one times the valuation of Crotone (£20.44m).
No other league in Europe can match the valuation gap between the top and bottom sides. Even predominantly one team leagues such as Scotland, Greece, Belarus and Croatia have gaps smaller than in France between two teams at opposite ends of the valuation tables. It may come as no shock that the gap between the top teams and the bottom teams in the major leagues at least is quite high but this example in France is a sign of just how absurd the gaps are becoming. Football is increasingly becoming a closed shop at the top end, in fact it has been for years.

Summer football v Winter football

Last year I blogged about Georgia's decision to switch from the traditional autumn-spring campaign to a spring-autumn calendar. Georgia's decision to switch calendars meant it became the twelfth "summer" league in Europe.

Earlier this year Moldova made the same decision to switch to a summer schedule from 2018 onwards. The result of this is a concise transitional campaign crammed into the calendar before the year is out, similar to what Georgia did last year.
Georgia's Umaglesi liga was broken into two groups of seven teams. The objective for the new summer campaign was to have a rebranded league of ten teams. The format of the league saw a surprise league win for Samtredia for the first time while traditional powers Dinamo Tbilisi and the recently impressive Dila Gori missed out on Europe completely. Only Torpedo Kutaisi of the traditional powers qualified. The league concluded with play-offs and everything was done and dusted by mid December with the new rebranded Erovnuli liga beginning on March 4th.
The transitional campaign gave Samtredia a unique opportunity to gain a league title and champions league qualification.

The decision to switch calendars is obvious and that's to improve European results. Georgia and Moldova enter sides in early qualifying rounds of European competition and clubs head into these games out of season lacking match fitness. From Moldova only Sheriff Tiraspol has ever reached the group stage of either the Champions league or Europa league while for Georgia only Dinamo Tbilisi have made the group stage once which was the UEFA cup.
 For Moldova this year the league campaign ended on May 30th with the so called gold match to decide the league title which was won by Sheriff Tiraspol who then face Kukësi in the champions league on July 12th. For the Europa league entrants the league season ended on May 21st with the first European games played on June 29th. 
Georgia this year were without their traditional power of Dinamo Tbilisi and it may come as no shock in Georgian football circles that they mustered a very bleak showing with all their sides falling at the first hurdle in both competitions. For Georgia, next year represents the first test of whether the switch was worthwhile results wise. 

Georgia and Moldova's decisions to switch to a summer calendar has raised a serious question for the majority of lower ranked leagues in UEFA. Would switching calendars help teams in Europe?. For the majority of leagues in the lower half of the UEFA country coefficient ranking these European qualifiers are massive. The revenue on offer just for taking part and getting through a few rounds is a game changer. Being best prepared for these qualifiers in the way of match fitness is only done with competitive football. 
A case study for this is Ireland where in 2002 the decision was made to go to a summer schedule with the aim of improving European results the major factor behind it. Since 2003 it is safe to assume that the switch has helped in that department with two clubs reaching the group stages of the Europa league and Shelbourne coming close to a berth in the champions league group stage in 2004. However that isn't to say it's guaranteed to improve results, Ireland still produced a couple of poor years with 2013-14 the standout where it scored the lowest collective coefficient points out of all the leagues. 

A lot of European leagues operate lengthy winter breaks with some ranging from two weeks to three months. Both Georgia and Moldova operated lengthy winter breaks when in the winter schedule and so the switch in calendar doesn't really change much in that record. The lengthy winter breaks are enforced due to harsh winters Eastern Europe experiences further strengthening the appeal of summer football. 
It is a trend that will be interest to follow if other leagues decide that playing through the summer might benefit continental performance. 

Oh Frown of Scotland

Rangers exit Europe at the first hurdle
Source: Imago

Scottish football once again hit the headlines this week with the high profile shock exit of Rangers from the Europa league to Luxembourg's Progrés Niederkorn. Pedro Caixinha's side traveled to a sun baked Luxembourg with a slender 1-0 advantage from the first leg. The Ibrox side have been quite busy in the weeks leading up to this tie with a raft of new signings from Mexico, Portugal and the signing of HJK Helsinki's leading scorer Alfredo Morelos. All in the hope of closing the sizable gap to rivals Celtic and Aberdeen.

However last night Rangers had their 1-0 lead from the first leg overturned by the plucky hosts who secured a memorable 2-0 win on the night to eliminate Rangers. It ensured progress through a round of European football for the first time in their history where they will meet Cypriots AEL Limassol, baring an even bigger shock from St Joseph's of Gibraltar on Thursday afternoon. 

Such a result became big news with the press, fans on social media and pundits all reacting to Rangers' quick, early exit from a competition manager Pedro Caixinha had targeted progress in. This wasn't a case of Rangers coming up unstuck against a side playing in-season as Niederkorn hadn't played since the conclusion of their domestic campaign at the end of May. Their opponents before the tie had only ever scored once in twelve previous European games. Even the programme notes from Progrés Niederkorn were dismissive of their chances to cause a shock. However the players in the build up had been talking positively of their chances of knocking out their illustrious visitors. 

Knock them out they did and it has got people once more, me included, talking about what is the problem with Scottish football, what is the standard and how low can you go?. The truth is it has been a miserable last week for Scottish clubs in Europe. Last week St Johnstone, who finished 4th to qualify were beaten at home by Lithuanians FK Trakai. The pressure is on St Johnstone tomorrow to rescue that tie or else Scotland will be left with just two sides in Europe after the first hurdle. 

Scottish sides have struggled badly the last few years in Europe as a whole. Celtic were beaten in the first leg of last year's second qualifying round by Lincoln Red Imps from Gibraltar in what was considered the worst result by a Scottish club in European football but they recovered that shock to progress. Hearts however were beaten by Maltese side Birkirkara that showed beyond Celtic, Scottish football really does have a serious lack of quality. Those two examples only coming from last year. Should we go back further we can find Hibernian's shambolic 9-0 aggregate defeat to Malmö in 2013, the heaviest defeat ever for a Scottish team in European competition. 

The reality is that Celtic in the past few years have been single handedly dragging the country coefficient up while everybody else bows out at the earliest opportunity. Aberdeen have been slowly stepping up to try and reverse the trend of Scottish clubs failing in Europe in the past few years. Their recent history in the Europa league has seen victories over FC Groningen and Rijeka alongside a respectable showing against Real Sociedad. However in each of the past three season's their involvement has ended at the third qualifying round stage, respectable compared to other sides. 

Henrik Larsson scores in the 2003 UEFA Cup final
source: skysports

Dizzy heights

Look at Scottish clubs in Europe nowadays and it is hard to believe that in the 2000s Scotland reached two European finals. Yes in the 2000s when the financial gap between the smaller nations and the big five or four really began to grow enormously. Celtic reached the UEFA cup final in 2003 taking Porto to extra-time in a thrilling final before losing out late. Five years later Rangers took on Zenit St Petersburg just as the Russians began to announce themselves as cash rich ambitious force to the east and although Rangers lost 2-0 they gave a good account of themselves despite playing a crazy amount of fixtures in the build up. 

Such runs to the final saw Scotland allowed two clubs into the champions league and the decade saw both Celtic and Rangers reach the last 16 of that competition. It was a pretty good decade and towards the end even Aberdeen reached the last 32 of UEFA cup after coming through a group featuring Panathinaikos, Atlético Madrid, Lokomotiv Moskva and FC København. In the last 32 they bowed out to Bayern Munich after losing the second leg heavily following a 2-2 draw in Pittodrie. 

Scotland's coefficient ranking in the decade shows just how well they were faring. They ranked as high as 9th in 2003 and remain consistently around that level for much of the decade ending it in 16th. 

Decline

The current decline began to rear its head just a few short weeks after Rangers' UEFA cup final defeat to Zenit in 2008. They faced Lithuanian side FBK Kaunas in a champions league qualifier and were surprisingly eliminated with no European football for the rest of the season. 

Since then its been a rough decade. Celtic would go from 2008 until 2012 without reaching the champions league group stage and the financial rewards that go with that. Rangers did have a run to the last 16 of the Europa league in 2010-11 but that was as good as it got for them. They would be eliminated in 2011-12 by Maribor of Slovenia in the play-off round.
The likes of Hearts, Hibernian, St Johnstone, Dundee United and Inverness Caledonian Thistle have all failed to progress beyond two rounds of European football this decade which has contributed to the continued Scottish slide down the coefficient table. From the high of 9th in 2003, Scotland's slump in the 2010s currently sees the league ranked 26th out of fifty-five UEFA members.

What can be done?
There is no magic formula to improve Scottish results in European competition. One suggestion that has been mentioned by Celtic manager Brendan Rogers is a calendar switch from winter to summer. Such a switch would mean that Scottish teams are at least match sharp going into these qualifiers, an advantage that can't be stressed enough. A calendar switch however wouldn't be popular, it worked in Ireland because there was only a premier and first division to move, in Scotland it would require a whole pyramid to be shifted. Do the lower league teams really fancy playing the season through the summer?
Money is the big issue and that comes with success so its a vicious cycle that Scottish clubs somehow have to break free of to improve. Perhaps losing the superiority complex would be a start. There was an element of under estimating the opponent in Rangers' humiliation this week and to most observers Rangers are light years away from where they once were to be underestimating any opponent. Other Scottish clubs haven't shown anything in recent years to be assuming they'll be getting through rounds in Europe. For the most part the opening qualifying rounds in Europe aren't against the big hitters, St Johnstone and Rangers for example in the first qualifying round were seeded (St Johnstone were seeded for the second as well) so avoided any of the decent sides that are drafted in at this stage of the competition.
However it seems with Scottish football the status quo must be retained and the lack of enthusiasm for change from the authorities ensures that we might be back here asking the same questions of Scottish football in a year or two again.