New Zealand and the OFC

New Zealand down and out in Lima
source: getty images

In the early hours of last Thursday morning New Zealand's World cup hopes were dashed by a Peruvian side that ended their own thirty-six year absence from the finals. New Zealand had come into the tie very much as underdogs but the fact that it was Peru and not Colombia or Argentina gave the New Zealanders some hope. However a 0-0 stalemate in Wellington wasn't the ideal result to take to Lima. Overall though Peru's superior quality showed and they deserved to go through to Russia. The subject for this post is about New Zealand and the Oceania Football Confederation (OFC) as a whole.

To qualify for this intercontinental play-off New Zealand emphatically overcame the Solomon Islands 8-3 on aggregate. A result showed how far ahead New Zealand are in their confederation by winning so handsomely. OFC is the weakest confederation within FIFA and because of that it doesn't have an automatic qualification spot at the World cup finals. Australia became so disillusioned with the lack of progress to be made from OFC that they left in 2006 to join the Asian confederation (AFC). It can be argued for and against whether Australia have improved to great lengths since leaving OFC but the stark reality is they now play more competitive games and their record of qualifying for every World cup since can't be sniffed at.
It's been debated for years whether OFC actually deserves an automatic berth. Arguments for will turn to New Zealand's last finals appearance where sensationally they were the only unbeaten team at the 2010 finals along with Australia reaching the last sixteen in 2006 (Australia qualified for that tournament under OFC). Arguments against are the lack of strength in depth with even New Zealand not exactly pulling up trees with Tahiti's 2013 Confederations cup also getting an airing.

Near impossible challenge:
The current thirty-two team format has never seen OFC been granted with an automatic berth. The leading OFC nation has always had to face an intercontinental play-off for a seat at the top table. More often than not OFC have been absent from the finals due to play-off heartbreak. The 1997 play-off where Australia lost out to Iran on away goals being the notable defeat. Four years later in November 2001 Australia took a 1-0 lead to Montevideo looking to dump two time winners Uruguay out but a 3-0 defeat put an end to the Socceroos. Australia did get the better of Uruguay in 2005 in what turned out to be their final campaign as an OFC member. Beating the Uruguyans on penalties ended a lengthy thirty-two year wait for a finals appearance, which shows the scale of the challenge facing OFC nations.
New Zealand themselves qualified in 2010 beating Bahrain in the play-off before being utterly outclassed by Mexico in the 2014 edition.
However Oceania is set to get an automatic berth in the new expansion which kicks in from the 2026 World cup onwards. Such a development will more than likely see New Zealand become a regular fixture at the finals as it's unlikely anyone else will be strong enough to overcome them thus the fears of practically giving them a bye are legitimate. Critics of the expansion, myself included, feel expansion was unnecessary and that a rejig of Confederation places was all that was needed to change. Until then there is still one World cup cycle under the current format and the smart money is on OFC not being present for the finals in Qatar.

Disband OFC?
Some people online have suggested disbanding the OFC altogether and merging with the AFC instead. I'm of the opinion a merger would be a lot more hassle than it's worth. If a straight merger was to happen then the AFC would become absolutely massive with membership going up to sixty-one nations from the current forty-eight. That is simply way too big for a single confederation. Besides I don't think having Lebanon v Cook Islands qualifiers will be doing anyone any good.
If merging is needed then perhaps splitting the AFC into two is the way to go. Again it's likely to cause more hassle than it's worth as by splitting the confederation you weaken the playing field. For instance South Korea have to get the better of not only neighboring countries such as Japan, China and North Korea to qualify, they also have to get the better of Saudi Arabia, Iran and Uzbekistan in the west. By splitting the confederation you make it much easier for South Korea to qualify with less competitive games and you are left with a situation not to dissimilar to OFC when both Australia and New Zealand had far too little competitive games.
Splitting the AFC into East and West would in my opinion see the West be of slightly high quality given that West Asia would have the likes of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Uzbekistan, Syria and the UAE with East having Japan, South and North Korea, Australia and with a bit of a drop off after that in terms of quality. Essentially splitting the Confederation isn't going to happen realistically and so OFC will continue to exist and get by.
What if New Zealand go to AFC themselves? This has been posed a few times but I'd retort back what does the OFC do then without New Zealand? OFC would suffer massively without New Zealand much like when Australia left in 2006, New Zealand didn't have that team to aspire to overcome in the confederation. Besides I highly doubt the AFC will be looking at taking in New Zealand given some members haven't exactly warmed to Australia being part of the confederation some eleven years on.

Future:
New Zealand won't be leaving the OFC that's for certain. The expansion from 2026 keeps them firmly in OFC as that automatic qualification spot should be their's to lose. Until then however, the All-Whites will attempt to qualify for Qatar 2022. The luck of the draw may see them not having to face a CONMEBOL team and maybe they'll face an AFC or CONCACAF side for a spot in five years time.
Coach Anthony Hudson's future is also a topic up for discussion after the end of the campaign last week. Whether it's Hudson or another manager the All-Whites' schedule sees the OFC Nations cup on the horizon in 2020 with that being the gateway to the Confederations cup the following year. 2021 will also see the qualifiers for the World cup take place. So for the next two years it's back to the drawing board for OFC's leading nation to come up with a strategy to break into the thirty-two team party one last time.