Coleraine's unlikely title tilt

This season could see a very rare feat occur in domestic football in Northern Ireland. Coleraine FC a currently involved in a tussle with Belfast's Crusaders at the top of the table having played out an epic 3-3 draw on Saturday. Should Coleraine emerge with the title in April they will end a run of sixteen years that the league title has been won by Belfast clubs. Portadown in 2001-02 were the last provincial club to win the title with nobody else coming close ever since. Portadown nowadays are in the midst of a financial crisis that saw them relegated last season from the top flight.

A quick glance at the list of top flight winners through the history of the league shows just how incredible such a feat would be for Coleraine. For starters Linfield have fifty-two titles which is more than double of the next highest number which is Glentoran's tally of twenty-three. All provincial winners combined have ten titles. Coleraine sit ninth in the winners standings with just the solitary title won back in 1973-74.

That 73-74 title success saw Coleraine win the league by five points (two points for a win in those days) from Portadown. It was certainly a case of now or never as both of Belfast's big two Linfield and Glentoran finished well off the pace in a rare year where neither were in contention. The league success also enabled Coleraine to participate in the following season's European cup. Pitted against Dutch giants Feyenoord, the Bannsiders lost 11-1 on aggregate. Alan Simpson scoring the only goal in the second leg at the Coleraine showgrounds. 

In recent years Coleraine have been on the fringes of qualifying for Europe. They achieved this last season thanks to an impressive third place finish but they finished some twenty-four points off Linfield who won the title. Norwegian side FK Haugesund put an end to any European run in emphatic fashion with Coleraine being demolished 7-0 in Norway which rendered the second leg 0-0 draw meaningless.  

Coleraine started the season on fire winning their first seven games to race clear of the usual contenders. The run was halted by Glentoran at the Oval on September 23rd with Coleraine playing seventy minutes with ten men after Josh Carson was red carded. The next five league games were won which included home wins over Linfield and Glentoran. The Bannsiders were held to a 2-2 draw by ten man Glenavon in November before the first, and to date, only defeat of the campaign away at Linfield.

Coleraine would be eventually caught by Crusaders following a festive dropping of points at home to Ballymena United and then away at Cliftonville. Manager Oran Kearney however signalled his intentions with the surprising capture of Stephen Dooley from Cork City who had just won the League of Ireland title a couple of months previously. Dooley a local lad being an excellent capture for the club adding some creativity. Former Derry and Institute striker Darren McCauley remains the top scorer with twelve goals one of which was Saturday's equalizer against Crusaders. 

Saturday's head-to-head with Crusaders had a little bit of everything. Coleraine fell two goals behind shortly before halftime with a quick fire double from Gavin Whyte. Despite pulling a goal back almost immediately after the restart Coleraine were 3-1 down as Paul Heatley seemingly put the game beyond reach of the hosts. Then came the undoubted turning point, Colin Coates' second yellow of the afternoon just after the hour mark.

With the numerical advantage Coleraine poured forward seeking the second goal to swing the momentum firmly in their favour and it arrived barely five minutes after Coates' dismissal. Jamie McGonigle, Coleriane's second top scorer this season firing his side back into the game. Crusaders were desperate to hang onto a priceless three points that would open the gap between themselves and their opponents to four. Ten minutes after McGonigle's second goal of the game, the aforementioned McCauley got himself and his team a vital goal that bought Coleraine level. There was enough time to go on and win the game which would've put Coleraine two points ahead but just rescuing a point from being two down will no doubt feel like a point well earned as Kearney's men go on to challenge Crusaders for this season' top honor. 

Champions League draw reaction

With European club competition shutting down until the new year here is a preview of the Round of 16 ties.

Juventus v Tottenham Hotspur

An exciting tie that should provide a pair of thrillers. Tottenham are currently enduring a slump in form having looked very threatening in the early autumn. Much like all these ties form could be completely different by the time these ties come around in February. 

As for Juventus well they are currently engulfed in a mighty tussle at the top of Serie with Napoli, Inter Milan and Roma just about hanging in there. Tottenham being at home in the second leg could be the factor that sways this tie but I'll go against the grain here and go with Juventus to edge through.

Basel v Manchester City

Manchester City are unstoppable on the domestic front so far this season. Their only defeat came away to Shakhtar Donetsk albeit they had assured qualification by the time of the reverse. They could well be in as much irresistible form in February as they are now but even if they have a slump they ought to be putting Basel to the sword. Basel will look to their impressive recent record against English sides as a source of hope and they have already beaten one half of Manchester this season. The Swiss super league will be back after the winter break by two weeks at the time of the first leg which should mean Basel will be the fresher of the two sides. Manchester City's quality to shine here.

Porto v Liverpool

A tricky tie to predict given the inconsistent nature of both sides. Much has been written about Liverpool's strengths and weaknesses with Porto finishing second in their group to qualify for  the last 16. Domestically Porto are top of the league, level with Sporting CP and three points ahead of Benfica. The second leg at Anfield is the deciding factor here and Liverpool will use that to qualify.

Sevilla v Manchester United

Sevilla celebrate their late third goal against Liverpool
source: getty images

On current form this is a Manchester United victory. With the league gone José Mourinho will no doubt be putting his focus on going as far as possible in the competition. As always with English sides the issue of a lack of winter stoppage could be the leveller as is Sevilla's incredible home form of the past year.
The Andalucians are unbeaten in over a year at home and as such can't be underestimated on home turf. Away from home is their major weakness and this weak Sevilla parted ways with coach Eduardo Berizzo after a terrible run of recent results despite a well documented cancer operation. United to go through but I don't think it'll be the walkover many expect.

Real Madrid v Paris Saint-Germain

The headline tie of the round. Two of the favorites for the tournament will clash in the last 16 and it's got tongues wagging. Real Madrid are out of the domestic title race and have this alongside the Copa del Rey to focus fully on. PSG are sailing as expected away from everyone domestically and this is the tournament where their season will be won and lost. Can PSG make the big step up from domestic duty to getting the better of an underachieving power?. On current form they ought to be winning this. Real Madrid are in dire straits in La Liga currently fourth and a massive fourteen points behind Barcelona. Zinedine Zidane will be feeling the heat if they do not progress as will Unai Emery if his side don't. Something will have to give and I can see Real Madrid's big time experience being the deciding factor here.

Shakhtar Donetsk v Roma 

Shakhtar have already overcome Italian opposition this season
source: reuters

The tie that hasn't generated a whole lot of talk in the media. Two of the rank outsiders go head-to-head for a place in the quarter-finals. Shakhtar have only once reached the last eight of this competition which was back in 2010-11 where a Pep Guardiola inspired Barcelona put them to the sword. Roma haven't graced the last eight in a decade where they famously were thumped by Manchester United. So one of these sides will be making a very much long awaited return to the last eight. Shakhtar will only have one league game before the first leg while Roma's winter break is during January and should be relatively fresh going into that first leg. Shakhtar were impressive in the group stage beating Manchester City to rubberstamp qualification while also getting the better of another Italian side in Napoli. I can see Shakhtar edging this.

Chelsea v Barcelona

Chelsea and Barcelona renew acquaintances yet again in a tie that should bring more epic moments. Barcelona effecively wrapped up the league title just before christmas while Chelsea are struggling to replicate the form of last season with more games to be played this season. Of course form could and will be different by the time February/March comes knocking around. I can see Barcelona going through based purely on the second leg being at home which is significant although many did say that exact thing ahead of that 2012 semi-final. A high scoring tie no doubt.

Bayern Munich v Beşiktaş

Beşiktaş finally navigated a group stage to reach the last 16 of the current format for the first time. They topped their group ahead of Porto and RB Leipzig in what was on paper a fairly even group. Their "reward" is Bayern Munich, so a bit of a short straw there. They should however approach with confidence on their form in this competition. Bayern Munich since the sacking of Carlo Ancelotti have managed to completely overturn a deficit in the league to being almost over the horizon in three months. The winter break will be well beyond them by the time of the tie and are overwhelming favorites here and unfortunately for the Turks I expect nothing less than a Bayern victory.

Celtic 69 unbeaten

Last weekend Celtic's eighteen month, sixty-nine game unbeaten run came to an emphatic halt by Hearts. The scenes after Celtic had been soundly beaten 4-0 saw manager Brendan Rodgers bring every member of the team into a huddle presumably to tell them to not dwell on the result and that they were history makers regardless. History makers they most certainly are, that sixty-nine game run is a British record, they became the first Scottish team to go a season unbeaten in one-hundred eighteen years and the first to do so in a thirty-eight game season.

Rodgers oversaw 68 of the 69 games
source: SNS Group/ Rob Casey

Such was the length of the run, it actually began under Rodgers' predecessor the Norwegian manager Ronny Deila. Defeat at St Johnstone on May 11th 2016, which saw the Perth side come from behind, was followed up with a 7-0 thumping of Motherwell on the final day of the 2015-16 season. That 7-0 win was Deila's last in charge after a campaign that saw Celtic fall below usual standards.
Rodgers would be appointed not long afterwards and the contrast would be day and night between the 2015-16 and 2016-17 campaigns.
The opening day of the 2016-17 season saw Celtic beat Hearts at Tynecastle. That was August 7th 2016, the Celts would drop points at Inverness (September 18th) and then draw again away to arch rivals Rangers in March, winning every single other domestic league game in that period. There was that roller-coaster game at Fir Park in December where Motherwell raced into a 2-0 lead, lost it, regained the lead and then lost it again with Tom Rogic scoring the winner in stoppage time. That would be the closest they would come to losing until much later in the run.
In fact Celtic would only drop points four times in the entire campaign with further draws at home to Partick Thistle and away at Ross County to finish not only as invincible title winners but treble winners too. 2016-17 Celtic were simply in a league of their own.

The current campaign began with Celtic winning the first three games before a draw at home to St Johnstone. Three more wins followed including a 2-0 Ibrox success before they needed to rescue a point at home to Hibernian in a 2-2 draw. Overall this season despite securing a third place finish in their Champions league group, Celtic haven't been as impressive as last season which was bound to happen given the incredible standard they set.
That defeat to Hearts was arguably coming for a few weeks. Celtic had a scandalous penalty decision awarded to them away at Motherwell with the team losing 1-0 going into the final two minutes of normal time. Callum McGregor was apparently felled in the area with replays showing it was most definetly a soft decision from referee Willie Collum. Scott Sinclair stepped up and converted the spot kick to salvage a draw from the clutches of defeat.
A week later a 1-0 home defeat to Anderlecht in the Champions league was as dire a performance of recent times. It was enough to qualify for the Europa league knockout phase in the new year on the better head-to-head record but it nonetheless was concerning. There was the 2-2 draw away at Hibernian the following weekend in which Celtic took a second half two goal lead before being pegged back to two-all and were a Mikael Lustig boot away from defeat in stoppage time.
The immediate reaction was going to be interesting. Would Celtic go into a slump in form or brush off the defeat and go again?. Three days later Partick Thistle were beaten 2-0 at Parkhead to get that defeat out of their system before following that up with an impressive 3-0 success at home to second placed Aberdeen. The gap at the top of the table has widened after the defeat and puts Celtic firmly back in control at the top without the distraction and media obsession of going unbeaten.

The most dramatic of Sunday's

For most Sunday November 26th was probably just another ordinary Sunday but for fans of two clubs in Europe it will be remembered for quite some time to come. You see Sunday November 26th was the final day of the league season in both Belarus and Georgia for 2017. Drama doesn't even do the events justice.

Belarus:

We'll start in Belarus as the final day of the season saw three sides in the hunt for title glory. Much of the build up here was about a variety of events such as the Belorussian football association reinstating a previously deducted three points to BATE which lifted them top of the pile. Shakhtyor Solihorsk only a couple of weeks ago had looked poised to take advantage of a dip in standards from BATE to claim a first title in twelve years but a crucial defeat last week at home to Torpedo Zhodino gave BATE the advantage going into this final day.
Also in the mix were Dinamo Minsk who came into the final day on the back of three successive victories. The capital side were looking for BATE to be beaten away at mid-table Gorodeya while only a win for themselves at Vitebsk would suffice. Shakhtyor also needed BATE to lose while they also needed to win to give themselves a chance, they were away at Neman Grodno.

Of all three games taking place simultaneously the first big change was with Dinamo Minsk taking a fifteenth minute lead at Vitebsk through Dmytro Khlyobas. Dinamo were now first but that would last a full three minutes as a Mirko Ivanic goal for BATE saw the defending champions of the past eleven years assume top spot. However BATE's 1-0 lead at Gorodeya wouldn't last six minutes as the home side rallied to equalize, Dinamo back in top spot. Further joy for Dinamo as it was shortly after that when Neman Grodno took the lead against Shakhtyor. A massive goal just after the half-hour mark in Gorodeya saw BATE fall behind as Kiril Pavlyuchek struck a dagger into BATE's title aspirations. No further goals followed as the half-time whistle sounded across the country.

Dinamo were forty-five minutes away from glory and they were edged closer to it barely a minute after the restart as Gorodeya sensationally made it 3-1 through Bojan Dubajic. A shock scoreline and drama. Shakhtyor managed an equalizer five minutes after that shock-wave to get themselves firmly back into contention. However Shakhtyor's hopes took another blow when Neman Grodno retook the lead barely five minutes after that equalizer. Seemingly three was being narrowed down to two as the second half wore on.
Dinamo added two more goals after the hour which all but confirmed they would be winning their game at least. The 78th minute arrived and the first of the late drama, penalty for BATE. Converted by Vladimir Rodionov, 3-2 with just over ten minutes remaining and a draw suffice to win the title. Nerves in both Gorodeya and Vitebsk some 380km apart. Vitebsk pulled a goal back but nothing to worry Dinamo as they now lead 4-1, Shakhtyor piling forward desperately seeking a spark and BATE likewise.
Dinamo's game ends 4-1 and Neman Grodno put the final nail in Shakhtyor's coffin with a third in stoppage time. BATE's game goes into six minutes added time anxious wait from Dinamo players and management. GOAL! a cross into the box is headed off a defender and Mirko Ivanic is the recipient of the loose ball, he strikes low to equalize for BATE with the last kick of the game. Cloud nine for BATE and absolute gut wrenching despair for Dinamo as news filters through that BATE have won the title for the twelfth time in succession. Ivanic and his teammates pumped full of adrenaline chasing the Montenegrin as he wheels over to the travelling support in absolute ecstasy from what they have just seen in front of them.

Georgia:

Just as the games ended in Belarus the final game of the season was beginning over in Georgia. All the other games on the final day kicked off earlier in the day to give this clash all the attention. Going into this final game Dinamo Tbilisi were top of the table by two points from Torpedo Kutaisi and as faith would have it, Dinamo's opponents on this final day in the capital. 

The build up to this final clash saw Dinamo at one stage seemingly sailing towards a first title in two seasons. A stuttering run allowed Torpedo Kutaisi the opportunity to haul themselves back into contention which they made no mistake and gradually they got themselves closer. Dinamo dropped two points last weekend across the city at Saburtalo while Torpedo got themselves within a win of the title with a 2-0 home success over Dinamo Batumi. Both results effectively ensured a title play-off on the final day. 

What made this clash even more enthralling was Torpedo chasing a first league title since 2002. Both Dinamo and Torpedo are the arch-rivals with both sets of fans not taking a particular like to each other. It all mixed to create this tremendous winner takes all clash. 

Torpedo having to win the game saw them push a little bit more with Dinamo looking to take advantage on the counter knowing a draw would be enough. The breakthrough didn't come until the seventy-fourth minute when Kapanadze nodded home from close range for Torpedo. It gave the Kutaisi side the lead they needed and just over fifteen minutes away from the title.
Then the drama. Four minutes added time was signaled and then a penalty was given. It appeared harsh on first viewing but a couple of replays showed there was just enough contact from Giorgi

Torpedo Kutaisi lift the title
Source: Torpedo Kutaisi

Guruli on Dinamo sub Mykola Kovtalyuk.
Otar Kiteishvili stepped up to take the spot kick, a spot kick that should he score his team win the league and should he fail he hands their arch rivals the title instead. Balls of steel and as cool a head required in this situation. Kiteishvili's penalty is beaten away by the feet of Roin Kvaskhvadze and that was literally the final play of the game as the full time whistle sounded to the delight of Torpedo Kutaisi and they're travelling supporters. 

New Zealand and the OFC

New Zealand down and out in Lima
source: getty images

In the early hours of last Thursday morning New Zealand's World cup hopes were dashed by a Peruvian side that ended their own thirty-six year absence from the finals. New Zealand had come into the tie very much as underdogs but the fact that it was Peru and not Colombia or Argentina gave the New Zealanders some hope. However a 0-0 stalemate in Wellington wasn't the ideal result to take to Lima. Overall though Peru's superior quality showed and they deserved to go through to Russia. The subject for this post is about New Zealand and the Oceania Football Confederation (OFC) as a whole.

To qualify for this intercontinental play-off New Zealand emphatically overcame the Solomon Islands 8-3 on aggregate. A result showed how far ahead New Zealand are in their confederation by winning so handsomely. OFC is the weakest confederation within FIFA and because of that it doesn't have an automatic qualification spot at the World cup finals. Australia became so disillusioned with the lack of progress to be made from OFC that they left in 2006 to join the Asian confederation (AFC). It can be argued for and against whether Australia have improved to great lengths since leaving OFC but the stark reality is they now play more competitive games and their record of qualifying for every World cup since can't be sniffed at.
It's been debated for years whether OFC actually deserves an automatic berth. Arguments for will turn to New Zealand's last finals appearance where sensationally they were the only unbeaten team at the 2010 finals along with Australia reaching the last sixteen in 2006 (Australia qualified for that tournament under OFC). Arguments against are the lack of strength in depth with even New Zealand not exactly pulling up trees with Tahiti's 2013 Confederations cup also getting an airing.

Near impossible challenge:
The current thirty-two team format has never seen OFC been granted with an automatic berth. The leading OFC nation has always had to face an intercontinental play-off for a seat at the top table. More often than not OFC have been absent from the finals due to play-off heartbreak. The 1997 play-off where Australia lost out to Iran on away goals being the notable defeat. Four years later in November 2001 Australia took a 1-0 lead to Montevideo looking to dump two time winners Uruguay out but a 3-0 defeat put an end to the Socceroos. Australia did get the better of Uruguay in 2005 in what turned out to be their final campaign as an OFC member. Beating the Uruguyans on penalties ended a lengthy thirty-two year wait for a finals appearance, which shows the scale of the challenge facing OFC nations.
New Zealand themselves qualified in 2010 beating Bahrain in the play-off before being utterly outclassed by Mexico in the 2014 edition.
However Oceania is set to get an automatic berth in the new expansion which kicks in from the 2026 World cup onwards. Such a development will more than likely see New Zealand become a regular fixture at the finals as it's unlikely anyone else will be strong enough to overcome them thus the fears of practically giving them a bye are legitimate. Critics of the expansion, myself included, feel expansion was unnecessary and that a rejig of Confederation places was all that was needed to change. Until then there is still one World cup cycle under the current format and the smart money is on OFC not being present for the finals in Qatar.

Disband OFC?
Some people online have suggested disbanding the OFC altogether and merging with the AFC instead. I'm of the opinion a merger would be a lot more hassle than it's worth. If a straight merger was to happen then the AFC would become absolutely massive with membership going up to sixty-one nations from the current forty-eight. That is simply way too big for a single confederation. Besides I don't think having Lebanon v Cook Islands qualifiers will be doing anyone any good.
If merging is needed then perhaps splitting the AFC into two is the way to go. Again it's likely to cause more hassle than it's worth as by splitting the confederation you weaken the playing field. For instance South Korea have to get the better of not only neighboring countries such as Japan, China and North Korea to qualify, they also have to get the better of Saudi Arabia, Iran and Uzbekistan in the west. By splitting the confederation you make it much easier for South Korea to qualify with less competitive games and you are left with a situation not to dissimilar to OFC when both Australia and New Zealand had far too little competitive games.
Splitting the AFC into East and West would in my opinion see the West be of slightly high quality given that West Asia would have the likes of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Uzbekistan, Syria and the UAE with East having Japan, South and North Korea, Australia and with a bit of a drop off after that in terms of quality. Essentially splitting the Confederation isn't going to happen realistically and so OFC will continue to exist and get by.
What if New Zealand go to AFC themselves? This has been posed a few times but I'd retort back what does the OFC do then without New Zealand? OFC would suffer massively without New Zealand much like when Australia left in 2006, New Zealand didn't have that team to aspire to overcome in the confederation. Besides I highly doubt the AFC will be looking at taking in New Zealand given some members haven't exactly warmed to Australia being part of the confederation some eleven years on.

Future:
New Zealand won't be leaving the OFC that's for certain. The expansion from 2026 keeps them firmly in OFC as that automatic qualification spot should be their's to lose. Until then however, the All-Whites will attempt to qualify for Qatar 2022. The luck of the draw may see them not having to face a CONMEBOL team and maybe they'll face an AFC or CONCACAF side for a spot in five years time.
Coach Anthony Hudson's future is also a topic up for discussion after the end of the campaign last week. Whether it's Hudson or another manager the All-Whites' schedule sees the OFC Nations cup on the horizon in 2020 with that being the gateway to the Confederations cup the following year. 2021 will also see the qualifiers for the World cup take place. So for the next two years it's back to the drawing board for OFC's leading nation to come up with a strategy to break into the thirty-two team party one last time.

Road to Russia reaches its climax

November's international week is upon us and with it the final hurdle for nineteen countries who still harbor hopes of making the cut for Russia next summer. However nineteen doesn't quite fit into the nine places that are remaining so let's have a look at who will be making it.

Africa:

Groups B and E have already been decided with Nigeria and Egypt respectively on the plane to Russia next summer. The remaining groups remain in the balance, some tighter than others. 

Group A:

Tunisia currently lead the group by three points from DR Congo. Both Libya and Guinea have long since been eliminated but both will have the final say this Saturday. Tunisia host Libya knowing a draw will be enough to secure qualification while DR Congo need to hope for a shock Libyan victory as well as beating Guinea themselves. It's hard to look past Tunisia sealing this. 

Group C:

This group comes down to a straight shootout between group leaders Morocco and second placed Ivory Coast. However the Ivory Coast have home advantage on Saturday with Morocco travelling to Abidjan knowing a point will be enough to seal a first qualification to the finals since 1998. Ivory Coast's last home game was lost to Gabon in September giving Morocco some hope of ending the World cup absence. I think Morocco will get the result they need here.

Group D:

Group D could be decided on Saturday as the rearranged game of South Africa v Senegal takes place. FIFA ordered a replay after the original game was officiated by Joseph Lamptey who has since been banned for life after "unlawfully influencing" the result. Victory for Senegal in Polokwane will seal their qualification while defeat will set up a mighty final day in which any one of the four could qualify. Senegal sit on eight points with two games to play while Burkina Faso and Cape Verde sit on six points with each having one game remaining and South Africa currently bottom on four points but with that Senegal game to play. I've a feeling Senegal will take care of the group on Saturday to qualify unfortunately. 

Europe:

It's play-off time in Europe as eight group runners-up go head-to-head for the final four spots on offer for the confederation. 

Northern Ireland v Switzerland

Northern Ireland were hoping for Switzerland and Switzerland probably looking at Northern Ireland as ideal opponents. This will be a close run tie I feel and the deciding factor is Switzerland being at home for the second leg. Michael O'Neill has overseen an outstanding turnaround in fortunes in guiding 'Norn Iron' to the last sixteen of the Euros and on the brink of a World cup berth for the first time since 1986. Switzerland will be in for a tough tie but I'm going with Switzerland to edge through this. 

Croatia v Greece

Croatia sacked manager Ante Čačić just before a deciding group game against Ukraine in October. The game was won and Croatia qualified for the play-offs. Standing in the way is Greece who have turned their fortunes around from the previous disastrous qualifying campaign for the 2016 Euros. Croatia on paper just have far too much quality I feel to come unstuck against a solid but unremarkable Greek side, when have we heard that before. Croatia to get through. 

A winner over Wales saw Ireland through to the play-offs
source: Stephen McCarthy/Sportsfile

Denmark v Ireland

Probably the team most people wanted from an Irish perspective. However it's still a very tricky tie truth be told. Denmark have obvious strengths such as the influential Christian Eriksen however the danger of focusing solely on the Tottenham midfielder is the fact that players such as Celta's Sisto, Feyenoord's Nicolai Jørgensen and the defensive duo of Simon Kjær and Andreas Christensen can be threats. Ireland's main strength has been the excellent defensive record maintained throughout qualification with just six conceded in ten games so far. My head says Denmark to shade it but this Irish team might have another performance in them such as the ones seen in Austria and Wales. 

Sweden v Italy

Probably the match-up of the round with two sides that were probably looking to avoid each other in the draw last month. Sweden haven't set the world alight and don't have the powers of Zlatan to call upon these days but can still be a tricky team for Italy who have had some unremarkable results in qualifying such as a draw with Macedonia. I just feel a World cup without Italy won't happen and that they will pull the rabbit of the hat. 

Inter-Continental play-offs:

Honduras v Australia

Australia and inter-continental play-offs again. The difference being they are entering it as Asia's representative but the Socceroos have had some heartbreak at this stage down the years namely the 2001 defeat to Uruguay but most painful of all the 1997 defeat to Iran on away goals. They come into this game sweating on Tim Cahill's fitness and face a side that pipped the United States to the play-off spot in CONCACAF. Honduras are a very physical team so the prospect of a patched up Tim Cahill facing them is a decision that coach Ange Postecoglu must think about. Postecoglu's future has also been a big talking point in the build up as he may not lead the Aussies out in Russia should they overcome the central Americans. I'm not convinced by this Australian team and I think Honduras will hold onto a lead from the first leg to qualify. 

Peru v New Zealand

This is an interesting match-up simply because for New Zealand it could've been a whole lot tougher. Messi's bailout for Argentina meant they qualified automatically and thus a collective sigh of relief  from the All-Whites ensued. Colombia also qualified automatically after drawing away in Peru. So for the New Zealanders its a Peru side that haven't qualified since 1982. New Zealand themselves haven't been at the finals since 2010 so this match-up offers a chance for one to step up. Peru however will be without Paolo Guerrero after he was suspended for thirty days for a doping offence, his loss cannot be understated to the Peruvians. I think Peru will get through here but will be keeping a close eye on this one. 

What would a Catalan league look like?

Catalonia has become big news this week as the Spanish government and courts ruled a referendum on independence as illegal. A region that has quite a growing separatist movement wants to make a decision on it's future. There has of course been multitudes of speculation about the region's biggest and flagship club, FC Barcelona. Would they be allowed to continue in La Liga, would they move to Lique 1 or would they slug it out in a newly formed Catalan league?. An intriguing topic nonetheless.

So for this post we'll focus on the scenario where Barcelona and other Catalan clubs can no longer play in the Spanish system and UEFA blocks a move to France. Catalonia becomes UEFA's 56th member state and a newly formed Catalan league kicks off.
This season there are three Catalan based clubs in La Liga namely Barcelona, Espanyol and Girona. In this scenario all three are invited to form the Catalan league. In the Segunda there are two more clubs in Reus Deportiu and Gimnástic Tarragona alongside Barcelona's B team but for the interest of first team clubs we'll add these two to the league.
Going down to the third tier we have seven more clubs eligible for the new league, these are Badalona, Cornellá, Llagostera, Lleida Esportiu, Olot, Peralada and Sabadell.
So this leaves a nice round figure of twelve teams which is enough for the top tier. The second tier is easily formed by just taking the entire group five of the Spanish Tercera división which in consisted entirely of Catalan teams leaving a total of eighteen eligible sides if the B teams of Espanyol and Reus Deportiu are taken out of contention. 
Below the Tercera Divisón in Spain are the regional leagues which make up the fifth tier. Catalonia has two groups at this level and a further one in the 6th tier. All competing sides here would be eligible to form the lower leagues of this new Catalan league system in their current league formats.

So this is visually what I have formed in this scenario.

Problems:

One quick glance at this Catalan system does show a glaring problem such a league will face, competitiveness. Barcelona would be by far and away the biggest club in the league. Only Espanyol could realistically have a chance of competing with the Blaugrana. However what will happen in this scenario is that Barcelona and Espanyol would lose a lot of their current players as the Catalan system will simply not generate enough money for them to hold onto the players. This in theory would reign Barcelona and Espanyol in from their fellow Catalan opponents. 

Competitiveness will be this league's main issue as in the mock twelve team league some of the clubs are struggling in the third tier of Spanish football currently. 

We then come to the issue of European places. As there would be no Catalan league in place prior to Catalonia getting independence in this scenario it might be that Barcelona will miss out on one European season. The reason for this is that they won't be allowed to represent Spain in the champions league and thus miss out on European football for one season until they have qualified through this Catalan system. 

As with Kosovo, Gibraltar and Montenegro in the last decade any new nation in UEFA will start at 0.000 in the co-efficient table. This means that Barcelona would be starting in the first qualifying round of the champions league under the Catalan flag and not the group stage as they do under the Spanish. The twist here for Barcelona is that as a result of the changes to the access list to UEFA competition from next season such a scenario will see Barcelona having to progress six rounds just to make the group stage of the champions league. 

Barcelona as well as Espanyol will likely decrease in stature. It is highly unlikely Barcelona will maintain their standing in European and world football by playingdomestically in Catalonia. As mentioned a lot of players will leave thus weakening the playing squad. 

Positives:

One big positive for this system is for clubs lower down in the current Spanish system. By playing in this Catalan league system they will have renewed and realistic hopes of actually playing European football through the league itself or the Catalan cup. Clubs such as Girona and Reus Deportiu will likely be contenders for Europa league spots in this system. 

Impact outside Catalonia:

Of course it won't just be Barcelona that will see a massive impact of this scenario. La Liga itself will lose its second most successful club while also seeing a total of three sides leaving the division. It's likely this will be fixed through either forgoing relegation for one season and promoting three clubs or La Liga going to a smaller league format of perhaps eighteen clubs. 

On the European front Barcelona will not be the force they are under the Spanish system. This will impact the latter rounds of European football with one major player out of the equation, which will give renewed hope to some of the middle teams in Europe to replace them. 

The Spanish national team will be weakened by the emergence of an independent Catalonia. Players such as Piqué, Fábregas, Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets will become mainstays in the Catalan national team leaving Spain to find replacements. 

Probably the biggest impact of this would be the precedence that it would set. Potentially a similar situation may arise in the Basque Country or Galicia which will impact Spain even more. All in all though it may be a while off yet but certainly this scenario would be a game changer in many ways.