Monday, 12 September 2016

Champions League group stage predictions

The champions league group stage kicks off tomorrow with a few notable absentees as well as a few returning faces and two new teams making their bow in this competition.
The first new team is FC Rostov from Russia. Agonizingly close to a first ever domestic league title last spring they had the consolation prize of a place in the qualifiers to get over the disappointment. Victories over Anderlecht and Ajax have seen them make it to the group stage in their first ever season in the champions league/European cup. Their reward is a difficult group with Bayern Munich, Atlético Madrid and PSV Eindhoven. More on that group later.
The second is obviously the defending English champions Leicester City. This being the first time they will be playing in the champions league/European cup.

This season sees Bulgarians Ludogorets Razgrad return after their debut season two years ago. Turkish champions Beşiktaş are back for the first time since 2009-10. Celtic are making their first group stage appearance in three seasons. Portuguese side Sporting Clube de Portugal return after a gap of two seasons, Club Brugge are making their return for the first time since 2005-06, FC København return, three seasons after their last group stage appearance and of course this season sees Poland represented in the group stage for the first time since 1995-96 by Legia Warszawa who make their return this season. 

A notable fact about this season's competition is the absence of any Greek teams in the group stage. Perennial champions Olympiacos were eliminated at the third qualifying round by Israeli side Hapoel Be'er Sheva and last season's runners-up PAOK exited at the hands of Ajax at the same stage. For the first time since 1996-97, Greece won't be hosting any group stage games. 

Group A

A very easy group to predict. PSG to top the group, Arsenal to get through in 2nd and Basel to take the Europa league place, but will push Arsenal all the way. 
              1. PSG
              2. Arsenal
              3. Basel
              4. Ludogorets Razgrad



Group B

A slightly tricky group to call. I can see Napoli getting through but joining them is the challenge. I'd probably side with Benfica ahead of Dynamo Kyiv but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ukrainians edge through. 
              1. Napoli
              2. Benfica
              3. Dynamo Kyiv
              4. Beşiktaş


Group C

This group will end how it was drawn. I can't see Gladbach getting the better of the top two seeds in this group. Much less so Celtic who I think will end up bottom of the group with maybe one or two points. 
              1. Barcelona
              2. Mancheser City
              3. Borussia Mönchengladbach
              4. Celtic


Group D

Another very predictable group. It'll end as it was drawn. The only interesting aspect will be, can Rostov nip that third place? I was impresed with PSV last season and think they'll do enough to claim third. 
              1. Bayern Munich
              2. Atlético Madrid
              3. PSV Eindhoven
              4. FC Rostov



Group E

Now this is a group that is hard to predict. All four teams seem to be close together in ability which makes it tricky to predict. Monaco have started the season well domestically as have CSKA Moskva. Leverkusen after two Bundesliga games have one win and one loss so not a lot came be written about that. Tottenham currently sit 4th in England, unbeaten so going by that they will be tricky opponents for their group rivals. I'm going to go with Monaco and Tottenham to get through, just. Leverkusen to be pushed into third. 
              1. Monaco
              2. Tottenham
              3. Bayer Leverkusen
              4. CSKA Moskva

Group F

A dull group in which Real Madrid and Dortmund will easily qualify. I fully expect Sporting Clube de Portugal to secure third place with ease as well. 
              1. Real Madrid
              2. Borussia Dortmund
              3. Sporting CP
              4. Legia Warszawa



Group G

Leicester can count their lucky stars they got such a manageable group. Porto are not in the greatest of nick these days while both Club Brugge and FC København are only just back in the group stage after a few years away. Leicester and Porto to get through with the Danes to get third place. 

              1. Porto
              2. Leicester City
              3. FC København
              4. Club Brugge


Group H

A tough group to predict despite the presence of Juventus. I still think Juve will get through but I would have my doubts as to how easy they will secure qualification. There is a temptation to say Sevilla third place so they can go for another Europa league tilt but I actually think they will just about squeeze through. I'm writing off Dinamo Zagreb with confidence given past experiences and Lyon will push for qualification to the very end. 
              1. Juventus
              2. Sevilla
              3. Lyon
              4. Dinamo Zagreb

Hopes and thoughts

Obviously my main hope for this season's competition is that someone outside of the usual cartel of Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich wins the tournament, however it's unlikely, very unlikely. Outside of that I don't see Atlético repeating last year's run to the final, Juventus could be a decent bet for a semi-final place given their summer activity and Manchester City with Pep will go deep into the competition. 

My shout for biggest underachiever in this competition will be PSG. A lot look at them as a "dark horse" but given the cash they have splashed over the years they have underachieved massively. At this moment I can see them falling in the last 16. 

I'll be interested to see how Legia Warszawa cope with their group. I get the feeling they'll lose all six games. They showed they were probably a level above Irish champions Dundalk so I'll be keeping an eye on their fortunes for sure. 

Everyone will be looking out for Leicester to see if they can take Europe by the same storm they took England last year. I think they'll get through but the last 16 will be as far as they get. 

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