Thursday, 15 September 2016

Europa League group stage predictions

For the first time in five years there will be Irish interest in the Europa League group stages and for only the second time ever. It's a big deal, even if the side in question are direct trophy rivals for my own club. Dundalk make their group stage debut having dropped down from the champions league play-offs which saw them unable to get the better of Legia Warszawa. Victories over Fimleikafélag Hafnarfjarðar of Iceland and BATE Borisov of Belarus gave them a guaranteed group stage place at least before doing battle with the Polish champions. 
Dundalk thus became only the second side from this island to reach the group stages. Shamrock Rovers, the most successful side here were the first to break the barrier after a dramatic extra-time victory over Partizan Belgrade in 2011. Rovers went on to lose all six group games in what was a very difficult group and Dundalk will be obviously hoping to better that performance. Dundalk however are in a tricky group make no mistake. Pitted against AZ Alkmaar from the Eredivisie in Holland, Russian giants Zenit St Petersburg and Israeli powerhouse Maccabi Tel-Aviv it offers it's own challenges. More on Dundalk's group later. 

Elsewhere the group stages have a decent spread of team across the continent. However two regions are without teams in this season's group stage. Scandinavia have no teams competing with only FC København the last remaining Scandinavian side left in either European competition. The Balkans is the other area without a team with Dinamo Zagreb the last team standing in either competition. 
What we lack in Scandinavia and the Balkans we make up for in other areas. Cyprus' APOEL Nicosia return for the second successive season in the Europa League group stage, Israel have two sides competing, as do Azerbaijan and Romania. The Czechs have a trio of hopefuls alongside the same number of Turkish sides. Even Kazakhstan have a side competing with Astana having dropped down from the champions league qualifiers. It all makes for an interesting group stage. 


Group A

Believe it or not I'm actually having a tricky assignment predicting this group. Yes Manchester United should be getting through but it's balanced out with not exactly easy away games. United's strength in depth should be enough to nab one of the top two spots but the other one is very tricky. Feyenoord have the atmospheric De Kuip to get them over the line at home as do Fenerbahçe with the Şükrü Saracoğlu. Zorya Luhansk have an unknown element about them that could fall in their favour. I'm not exactly a Ukrainian football guru but playing games in Odessa as opposed to Luhansk might be the difference in them getting through or not. I'll plum for Fenerbahçe to join United in getting through here. 
  1. Manchester United
  2. Fenerbahçe
  3. Feyenoord
  4. Zorya Luhansk

Group B

I like the look of this group. The Greek-Cypriot clashes do give it a spicy flavor which is tasty and qualification doesn't look beyond any of the teams. Olympiacos will no doubt be favorites to at least get through and they should do. APOEL have the warm conditions to their advantage but do face a chilling trip to Astana in November. Astana themselves will be travelling quite a lot which is a factor. Young Boys will be a tricky side to overcome. I'm going to side with APOEL here.

  1. Olympiacos
  2. APOEL Nicosia
  3. Astana
  4. Young Boys

Group C

Again another tricky group to predict. A decent grouping of sides that you could make a case for all to get through. Anderlecht's European record compared to their excellent domestic record have been a constant let down. Saint-Étienne I do think will get through. Playing in front of France's most passionate fans they will be a tough nut to break. Mainz have a small European sample size to go off of but I do think they'll be close in this group. The wildcard in this group is Qəbələ. The Azeri side are making their second ever group appearance after last season and will be a tricky opponent especially at home. I can see them coming very close this time but I'll play it safe and go with Anderlecht to join Saint-Étienne. 
  1. Saint-Étienne
  2. Anderlecht
  3. Qəbələ
  4. Mainz

Group D

Here we are. Irish eyes will be (well the should be) glued to this group. Dundalk being honest are up against it but that could be their advantage. No fear, no expectation. I'll go on record and say they will at least get a point, how much remains the joy of this competition, unfortunately for them I can't see them getting through. Zenit have quality dripping through the squad and should be favorites to top this group. AZ Alkmaar were a disaster in the group last season finishing 4th and I do think they'll miss out with Maccabi Tel-Aviv nabbing that second spot behind Zenit. The Israelis have lost their free scoring Eran Zahavi but do have a decent attacking threat about them. 
  1. Zenit St Petersburg
  2. Maccabi Tel-Aviv
  3. AZ Alkmaar
  4. Dundalk

Group E

Roma surely can't muck up this group. I would be amazed if they didn't get through. Joining them is where it gets tricky to predict. Astra Giurgiu were resolute in overcoming West Ham to get here and look fairly good in keeping teams out on that evidence. Austria Wien are a side that have a very decent shot at getting through. Currently 4th in the concertina at the top of the Austrian league do they have enough to get the better of Viktoria Plzeň. Czechs sides have began to improve in Europe after a doldrum period and I'm inclined to side on their side in this case. 
  1. Roma
  2. Viktoria Plzeň
  3. Austria Wien
  4. Astra Giurgiu

Group F

One team in particular I'll be following in this group and no prizes for guessing are our conquerors in the third qualifying round, Genk. Genk were a class or two above City in July/August and I'll be keeping an eye on their progress here for sure. Athletic Bilbao should be getting through without too much trouble. Sassuolo are in their debut European campaign so it's hard to see how much of a challenge they will otherwise have been had they been a seasoned Italian side in Europe. Rapid Wien have a passionate home support which will be their strength. I'm going to be bold here and go for Genk to join Athletic Bilbao in the next round, why not, it'll look better for City. 
  1.  Athletic Bilbao
  2. Genk
  3. Sassuolo
  4. Rapid Wien

Group G

A tasty looking group this. Celta de Vigo have began the season in disasterous form with three defeats from three, they have lost Nolito who at times last season was unplayable and could be the first Spanish side to exit Europe this season. Ajax well dumped out of the champions league by Rostov shows they are not in the finest of health. Panathinaikos like most Greek sides whose name is not Olympiacos have no money and Standard Liége well they had the utterly bizarre play-off system domestically to thank for them being in Europe in the first place. All sides have problems so makes for a really interesting battle. Ajax I think will go through alongside Panathinaikos but this group will be tight and don't be surprised to see Celta get through. 
  1. Ajax
  2. Panathinaikos
  3. Celta de Vigo
  4. Standard Liége

Group H

Playing away from Donetsk isn't ideal for Shakhtar but they have pedigree in this competition. The final winners of the UEFA cup and semi-finalists last season they are a side you just can't bet against in this group. Again a tricky group to predict given that Braga have started quite well in the league and Gent were among the last 16 in the champions league last season. Konyaspor are making their debut in European competition this season having finished an impressive 3rd domestically last season. I'll go with Braga to join Shakhtar in getting through.

  1. Shakhtar Donetsk
  2. Sporting Braga
  3. Gent
  4. Konyaspor

Group I

A very difficult group to predict. Schalke will be favorites to get through and I'd expect them to. Salzburg have in the past been ruthless in groups and have gone through on numerous occasions so will be a tough team to shift. Krasnodar were in the last 32 o this competition last season and won't be a pushover. Nice likewise will fancy their chances in this group. They have started quite well in Ligue 1 and should they carry that form over they have to be considered. I'll stick my neck out and go with Nice and Schalke here. 
  1. Schalke
  2. Nice
  3. Salzburg
  4. Krasnodar

Group J

Fiorentina will top this group without too much difficulty I think. The other three will be an interest fight for that second spot. Slovan Liberec are a side that could pose a threat to the more fancied PAOK. The Greeks will be my favorite to get through this group but it could very well be a close run thing. With the experience of the past few years under their belts Azeri side Qarabağ can't be dismissed from the discussion either. 
  1. Fiorentina
  2. PAOK
  3. Qarabağ
  4. Slovan Liberec

Group K

The trend of tricky groups continues here with three teams on a similar level and one potential wildcard team. Inter Milan obviously being the biggest name in the group and one would imagine should be getting through. I'm not so confident about the second team to go through. Southampton have in recent years punched above their weight and under a new manager this season are not the same side of those years. Sparta Praha obviously had a very impressive run in this competition last season. Hapoel Be'er Sheva have shown to be strong at home and are a banana skin in this group. I'll stick my neck out and side with Sparta to get through. 
  1. Inter Milan
  2. Sparta Praha
  3. Southampton
  4. Hapoel Be'er Sheva

Group L

I would be fairly confident that Villarreal will coast this group. Semi-finalists last season they have much more quality than their group rivals. Steaua București have their own off the pitch problems but were fairly outclassed by Manchester City in the champions league. FC Zürich are actually the only non top division side in the competition having suffered relegation last season but won the Swiss cup. Turkish side Osmanlıspor are in only their second ever European campaign and did overcome FC Midtjylland in the play-offs. I actually think the Turks have a really good chance here so I'll go with them to get through. 
  1. Villarreal
  2. Osmanlıspor
  3. Steaua București
  4. FC Zürich

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